Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in December? This week's non-farm data is crucial

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<p>Citigroup believes that the Federal Reserve is currently "downplaying" the interpretation of the October employment data due to the impact of strikes and hurricanes. In this context, Friday's non-farm payrolls are not only crucial for the Fed's decisions on interest rate cuts in December and January, but also very important for the path of the long-term neutral interest rate. If Friday's non-farm payrolls are weak and November inflation weakens, there is a possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in December; conversely, it may pause rate cuts</p>

- Citigroup indicates that the upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for the Federal Reserve's recent policies and future direction.  
- Analyst Andrew Hollenhorst notes that a strong job report and rising inflation could lead the Fed to pause interest rate hikes, while weak data may prompt a 50 basis point cut.  
- Citigroup forecasts a relatively weak November report with only 155,000 new jobs, suggesting a rising unemployment rate of 4.3%, which could influence the Fed's decisions in December and January.

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