Will there be a drop of more than 20% after the stock split? NVIDIA and two other stocks are in danger

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the short-term trend of the US stock market is always difficult to predict. In times of market volatility, especially during downturns, investors often seek stability in industries that have historically outperformed the S&P 500 index. While FAANG stocks have been favored by investors for many years, companies that implement stock splits are more likely to attract attention during uncertain periods.

It is understood that a stock split is an event where a company adjusts its stock price and number of outstanding shares by the same proportion. It is merely a superficial phenomenon and does not have a substantial impact on the company's market value or business performance.

There are two types of stock splits: forward splits and reverse splits. Forward splits lower the nominal stock price of a company, making it easier for retail investors to purchase, while reverse splits aim to increase the stock price to meet the minimum listing standards of major stock exchanges.

Although reverse stock splits have been successful in some cases, investors tend to focus on companies that implement forward splits. These companies usually excel in innovation and execution, making them the type of enterprises we expect to perform well in the long term.

However, not all Wall Street observers believe that stocks following a stock split will continue to rise. According to some analysts' low price targets, the following three stocks post-split may face a downside risk of up to 29%.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US): Potential 22% Decline

At least one analyst believes that NVIDIA, as a giant in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), may experience a significant price decline. NVIDIA recently announced plans for a 10-for-1 forward split, following a 4-for-1 split completed in July 2021.

DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria expects NVIDIA's stock price to reach $900. If this were a target price from a year ago, Luria would be considered one of the most optimistic analysts on Wall Street. However, with NVIDIA's closing price on May 29 slightly above $1,148, this suggests that the top-performing mega-cap stock since early 2023 could decline by 22%.

While NVIDIA's H100 graphics processing unit (GPU) is the preferred choice for AI-accelerated data centers, leading to its pricing power and significantly improved gross margins, competition is inevitable. Intel (INTC.US) is expected to launch its Gaudi 3 AI accelerator chip in the third quarter, and AMD (AMD.US) is also increasing production of its MI300X GPU to compete with NVIDIA's H100 chip.

A bigger concern is that NVIDIA's top customers are developing their own AI GPUs. Microsoft (MSFT.US), Meta Platforms (META.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and Alphabet (GOOGL.US) collectively account for about 40% of NVIDIA's sales, but they are supplementing NVIDIA's H100 chip with in-house GPUs.**This year may be the peak of NVIDIA's orders, gross margin, and GPU pricing power.

History seems to also foreshadow NVIDIA's future. Over the past thirty years, no major investment has been able to avoid a bubble burst. Despite the bright prospects of artificial intelligence, its initial adoption and absorption may be more challenging than investors expect. If the AI bubble bursts, no company will be hit harder than NVIDIA.

Amphenol Corporation (APH.US): Potential 29% Decline

Another Wall Street expert predicts that electronic components giant Amphenol Corporation may experience a sharp drop in stock price in the near future. On May 20, the board of directors of Amphenol Corporation approved a 2:1 forward split, expected to take effect on June 11.

Although Amphenol Corporation's performance has been superior to the S&P 500 Index since the early 1990s, with a nearly 46,000% increase compared to the S&P 500 Index's approximately 1,240% rise, Stifel analyst Matthew Sheerin is not optimistic about the company's future. Sheerin has set a target price of $95, which implies a potential 29% decline in Amphenol Corporation's stock price, reducing its market value by approximately $23 billion.

The most reasonable reason for Sheerin's skepticism about Amphenol Corporation is the company's valuation. Amphenol Corporation's success lies in mass-producing electrical and fiber optic connectors, coaxial cables, and other components that are typically low-priced, while earning substantial profits in the process.

However, the company's current P/E ratio has exceeded 34 times, with an estimated annualized earnings growth rate of 13.4% over the next five years. In comparison, Amphenol Corporation's average expected P/E ratio over the past five years was 27 times. Investors must go back to the dot-com bubble era to find a time when Amphenol Corporation's stock price was so expensive.

Amphenol Corporation is also cyclical, and several predictive indicators suggest that the U.S. economy may be heading for trouble. For example, the U.S. money supply has seen a significant decline for the first time, indicating economic weakness. If the U.S. or global economy enters a recession, electronic component orders are expected to slow down.

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX.US): Potential 24% Decline

According to a Wall Street analyst's prediction, the third stock that may experience a sharp decline is semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment company Lam Research Corporation. On May 21, the board of directors of Lam Research Corporation approved a 10:1 forward stock split, expected to take effect before the opening on October 3.

Similar to the stock splits announced earlier this year by Walmart and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Lam Research Corporation's stock split aims to make stocks more affordable for employees so they can participate in the company's employee stock ownership plan.

However, given Lam Research Corporation's stock price has risen by 1,440% over the past 10 years, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore is not optimistic about the stock. Moore has set a target price of $720 for Lam Research Corporation, which means that the stock price of this leading wafer equipment supplier may decline by 24% next year.In addition, one reason Moore may be disappointed with the Panlin Group is that US regulatory agencies are not favorable to the semiconductor equipment industry, at least judging by its current stock price of $953. Just as regulatory agencies have twice restricted the export of NVIDIA's high-performance A100 and H100 AI-GPUs to China in the past two years, they have also restricted the export of wafer manufacturing equipment to China. These export restrictions clearly limit the Panlin Group's ability to leverage the artificial intelligence revolution.

Valuation is also a concern. Over the past five years, the Panlin Group's price-to-sales ratio has been around 4.7 times sales and 17 times expected earnings per share. The current stock price is 7.1 times next year's expected sales and nearly 27 times expected earnings per share. For an industry with strong cyclicality, this is a high price to pay.

Finally, Moore may also be concerned about economic headwinds. Despite the slow progress of the US economy, the continuous monthly decline in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index suggests that the US economy will weaken in the second half of the year. Additionally, the decline in M2 also signals trouble. During an economic contraction, cyclically traded companies often suffer the most severe blows