Tesla Cybertruck recall reveals delivery data, monthly production far below target

According to the Zhitong Finance and Economics APP, on June 25th, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) of the United States disclosed a recall notice. Tesla (TSLA.US) will recall 11,688 Cybertrucks due to excessive current that can cause the front windshield wiper motor controller to malfunction, leading to reduced visibility and increased collision risk. Tesla's after-sales service department will replace the wiper motor for free.

It is worth noting that this is the fourth recall of the Cybertruck since Tesla began delivering the model at the end of last year. Some industry analysts pointed out that the quantity of this recall is equivalent to the sales data of the Cybertruck. Since Tesla has not officially announced the sales data of the Cybertruck in its quarterly delivery reports, this data can provide an early sales reference for the market.

These data can be used to uncover the monthly delivery speed of the Tesla Cybertruck. It is reported that Tesla started small-scale production of the Cybertruck at the end of November last year. Previous recall notices showed that Tesla delivered 1,163 Cybertrucks in December last year, meaning that approximately 10,525 Cybertrucks have been delivered since 2024, averaging 1,754 Cybertrucks delivered per month this year. Based on this calculation, Tesla is expected to deliver approximately 23,500 Cybertrucks for the full year of 2024.

However, this number is apparently inconsistent with what Musk revealed at the Tesla shareholder meeting two weeks ago. Musk revealed at that time that Tesla achieved a record production of 1,300 Cybertrucks per week (equivalent to around 5,200 per month) and by the end of 2024, Tesla's target production volume is 2,500 Cybertrucks per week (equivalent to around 10,000 per month). In addition, Musk has always emphasized that the future annual sales volume of the Cybertruck will reach 250,000 units, twice the target production volume by the end of this year. Some observers believe that the production target of the Cybertruck may be too far from reality.

A bigger issue is whether there are enough buyers for the Cybertruck, and the intensive recalls of the Cybertruck may also make consumers hesitant to purchase this electric truck. The overall demand for electric vehicles among consumers—even for Tesla's electric vehicles like the Model Y—is also uncertain. Musk confirmed at the shareholder meeting that as the industry goes through a transition period, recent demand and sales will still face challenges. Musk also added that competitors are also cutting back on investments and production of electric vehicles.

Tesla is expected to announce the overall delivery data for the second quarter early next week. The market currently expects Tesla's second-quarter delivery volume to be 441,000 units, higher than the first quarter's 386,800 units, but lower than the 466,100 units in the same period last year