The "Best Contrarian Indicator" in the US stock market resigns

Is there really an "inverse indicator" in the market? Yes, and he is the chief strategist of JPMorgan Chase.

According to media reports, Marko Kolanovic, the chief global market strategist of JPMorgan Chase, is resigning, ending his 19-year tenure. The key reason for his departure is likely a series of incorrect judgments on the US stock market during his tenure.

At the beginning of 2022, when the S&P 500 index hit a temporary high, Kolanovic was bullish since January of that year and advised clients to significantly increase their holdings in US stocks. As a result, the S&P 500 index fell from January to October, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20%.

The most remarkable thing is that Kolanovic changed his view to bearish on US stocks starting from the end of September 2022, and advised clients to reduce their positions in US stocks. As a result, the S&P 500 started to rise from the lowest point in October and has been rising all the way to now, with a cumulative increase of over 50%. However, Kolanovic still insists on being bearish on US stocks, missing out on a significant uptrend.

Since then, some have discovered that Kolanovic, as a market "inverse indicator," has surprisingly high accuracy. Some market participants even joked: before Kolanovic turns bullish on US stocks, the upward trend of US stocks will not end.

To this day, Kolanovic and some strategists at JPMorgan Chase still maintain a bearish view on US stocks. Last week, they reiterated their bearish forecast in a report, predicting that the S&P 500 index will fall by nearly 25% by the end of the year, emphasizing the "scary" phenomenon of the current lack of breadth in US stocks.

"Since 2023, we have always believed that it is difficult for the US economy to experience a soft landing. In fact, under the continued impact of high interest rates, it is more likely to have a 'no landing' situation until restrictive monetary policies and a weak macroeconomic background hinder economic growth. Although we prefer quality large-cap stocks, we underestimated the resilience of the six US giants in terms of price momentum and profit correction."

I wonder how his prediction will turn out this time.

A spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase stated that after Kolanovic's departure, Hussein Malik will become the sole head of the global research department, having previously served as co-head with Kolanovic.

Kolanovic graduated from New York University with a Ph.D. in theoretical high-energy physics. Before joining JPMorgan Chase, he worked at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch. According to sources cited by the media, he is now "exploring other opportunities"