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Xiangcai Securities:

This month, the unemployment rate is approaching the trigger of the Sahm Law, triggering market concerns about whether the U.S. economy will fall into a recession. According to the Sahm Rule, when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate changes by more than 0.5pp from the 12-month low point, the U.S. economy will enter a recession. Since 1960, this rule has had an accuracy rate of 100%. With two decimal places, the 3-month moving average unemployment rate is 3.98%, very close to the 4% threshold for the current month.

As we predicted earlier, the April non-farm payroll was revised down from 165,000 to 108,000, and May was revised down from 272,000 to 218,000, with a total downward revision of 111,000 over the two months. The initial collection rate of CES non-farm data in June was only 57.4%, lower than the previous month's 64.4%. Combining with the ADP employment data, the June data is 150,000, lower than the previous value. We believe that the June non-farm data will likely be revised downward next month.