Goldman Sachs: It is expected that the US economic growth rate will slow down in the second half of the year, and interest rates may be cut by 25 basis points every quarter after September
Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the US economic growth rate to slow to around 2% in the second half of the year, with stock indices remaining relatively flat. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points each quarter after September. The fixed income market will benefit from declining interest rates, with high-yield bond markets and structured credit offering investment opportunities. In terms of stocks, it is expected that US stocks will remain relatively flat in the second half of the year, and it is advised to stay away from stocks in the artificial intelligence sector. Additionally, Indian and Japanese stocks are attractive
According to the latest information from the Smart Finance and Economics APP, Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) expects the US economic growth rate in the second half of the year to slow to around 2%. Due to declining profit growth and political concerns, stock indices are expected to remain relatively flat. Lindsay Rosner, Managing Director of Multi-Industry Investments at Goldman Sachs Group's Asset Management Division, believes that investors may indeed see a rate cut in the US in the second half of the year. She predicts that the Federal Reserve will not start cutting rates before September, but the pace of rate cuts thereafter may be maintained at 25 basis points per quarter. With interest rates declining, she expects the fixed income market to benefit, with opportunities seen in the high-yield bond market and structured credit.
In its "Mid-Year Outlook" report, Goldman Sachs Asset Management stated that expectations for the timing and pace of interest rate policy adjustments are constantly changing, highlighting the need for a dynamic investment approach in the coming months. Uncertainty has underscored the defensive role of government bonds and safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar. In other areas, attractive income opportunities have been provided by diversified industries such as corporate and securitized credit. Persistent inflation has led to central banks around the world cutting rates at a slower pace than expected six months ago. However, Goldman Sachs expects the US disinflation process to continue, with rates expected to be lowered by the end of the year.
Alexis Deladerriere, Global Equity Portfolio Manager and Developed Markets Director at GSAM, stated that with overall profit growth slowing and increasing domestic and global political concerns, US stocks are expected to remain relatively flat in the second half of the year; suggesting to stay away from stocks that initially outperformed in the artificial intelligence field. Additionally, GSAM believes that Indian and Japanese stocks are currently particularly attractive due to themes ranging from artificial intelligence to climate change adaptation. He also pointed out the attractiveness of Japanese corporate governance reforms