The new theme in the market: What is the "Harry's Trade"?

As Biden announces his bid for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Vice President Harris has become the "hot favorite" for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. Although Harris has not formally announced her candidacy, investors have begun to pay attention to the potential economic policy changes she may bring.

According to media reports on Tuesday, some analysts believe that Harris's positions may be more progressive than "Bidenomics," such as holding a more aggressive stance on clean energy issues.

Similar to Trump, Harris also advocates for tax cuts, but she supports tax cuts for the middle and lower income groups. For the wealthy and corporations, she hopes to increase taxes. On the export front, Harris opposes trade protectionism and aims to promote U.S. exports.

Vasu Menon, Managing Director of Investment Strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, believes that Harris winning the U.S. presidential election would be favorable for the market. Under Democratic rule, the Federal Reserve can continue its monetary policy under "political continuity and less policy uncertainty."

1. Advocating Tax Cuts for the Middle and Lower Income Groups

During her campaign, Harris proposed providing a $500 monthly tax credit for individuals earning less than $100,000, to replace the tax cuts implemented by Trump in 2017. This legislative proposal is known as the "Middle-Class Relief Act."

She also plans to increase the estate tax to fund a $300 billion teacher pay raise plan, which is referred to as the "largest federal investment in teacher salaries in U.S. history," differing from Biden's proposal to raise the corporate tax rate.

Analysts suggest that if the middle class benefits, the consumer sector and small-cap consumer ETFs may benefit.

2. Strengthening U.S. Exports

Harris has criticized Trump's trade policies, emphasizing the need to strengthen U.S. exports. She opposes Trump's tariff plans, stating that these plans would increase consumer spending on gasoline and groceries, affecting middle-class families.

In a Democratic primary debate at the end of 2019, Harris stated her support for promoting U.S. exports and declared, "I am not a protectionist Democrat."

If Harris is elected, large multinational corporations and large-cap stock ETFs may benefit, as large multinational corporations often have broad global coverage and focus on exports.

3. Supporting Clean Energy

Similar to Biden, Harris has a clear stance on climate and energy policies.

A key achievement during Biden's term was signing the "Inflation Reduction Act" (IRA), the largest climate spending bill in U.S. history, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to below 42% of 2005 levels by 2030.

As Vice President, Harris has consistently supported the Biden administration's climate policies, including the passage of the "Inflation Reduction Act." She advocates for allocating $200 billion to the Environmental Protection Agency's greenhouse gas reduction fund to support clean energy development.

Furthermore, Harris emphasizes strengthening regulations on oil companies and other polluting enterprises. She has filed lawsuits against multiple fossil fuel companies, sued a pipeline company over oil spills, and initiated investigations into whether ExxonMobil misled the public on climate change issues4. Advocating for reducing housing burdens

Harris values the issue of affordability for American residents and has proposed the "Rent Relief Act" to provide tax relief for tenants with an annual income of less than $100,000, which could benefit the U.S. real estate industry.

5. No clear stance on cryptocurrencies

Harris currently does not have a clear stance on cryptocurrencies. Unlike other politicians in Congress, Harris has never expressed a position on digital currencies, tokenization, blockchain, or NFTs.

However, some analysts believe that Harris is likely to continue Biden's policies as her political base is connected to Biden, and most of Harris's supporters come from the Biden camp.

6. Cautious attitude towards AI

From her past statements, it can be seen that Harris holds a cautious attitude towards AI.

Harris has stated that when government agencies use artificial intelligence tools, they are now required to verify that these tools do not endanger the rights and security of the American people.

In the first half of the year, Harris met with executives from several leading U.S. technology companies to discuss key issues related to artificial intelligence. She has stated that President Biden "expects companies like yours to ensure the safety of their products before offering them to the public."