Next week's heavy schedule: China's July economic and financial data, will MLF cut interest rates? US CPI, Alibaba Tencent JD financial reports

August 12th-16th Weekly Highlights of Major Financial Events, all in Beijing time:

Highlights of the Week: China's economic data for July, including industrial value added, retail sales, real estate investment, unemployment rate, housing prices in 70 cities, social financing and RMB loans in July, PBOC's MLF operations, US CPI and PPI data for July, GDP data for the Eurozone, UK, Japan in Q2, Trump's interview with Musk, Israel resuming ceasefire talks with Gaza, AMD, Intel, and other chip giants participating in Super Micro Computer's annual open storage summit, and popular Chinese concept stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com releasing their financial reports.

Release of Major Economic and Financial Data for China in July

The National Bureau of Statistics will announce a series of economic data including industrial value added, retail sales, real estate investment, and unemployment rate for July at 10:00 am on Thursday, August 15th, and a press conference on the national economic situation will be held by the State Council Information Office.

Previous data shows that in June, industrial value added for enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year and 0.42% month-on-month; retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.0% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; and the urban surveyed unemployment rate remained at 5%. In the first half of the year, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, and new home sales area dropped by 19.0%.

Financial data for July will be released before Thursday, August 15th. According to industry experts and institutions interviewed by reporters from Securities Daily and their forward-looking data, the scale of new credit and social financing in July may increase year-on-year, with new credit possibly exceeding 400 billion yuan and social financing increment expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan. Looking back at the same period last year, new RMB loans in that month were 345.9 billion yuan, and new social financing was 528.2 billion yuan.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Orient Securities, believes that after achieving significant results in squeezing out excess liquidity in the financial sector in the second quarter, banks currently have sufficient credit quotas. In July, commercial banks may take advantage of the central bank's interest rate cuts and LPR (loan prime rate) reductions to accelerate credit issuance. In terms of specific destinations, corporate loans will be the main driving factor for the year-on-year increase in loans in July, supported by the recent strong trends in broad-based infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment. Considering that consumer spending continues to be weak, household loans may decrease year-on-year.

PBOC's MLF Rollover, Will There Be a Rate Cut?

Wind data shows that next week, the central bank's open market operations will have 21.29 billion yuan of reverse repurchase agreements maturing, with maturities of 6.7 billion yuan, 6.2 billion yuan, 0 billion yuan, 71 billion yuan, and 129 billion yuan from Monday to Friday. In addition, on Thursday (August 15th), 401 billion yuan of MLF will mature, and the rollover and interest rates are closely watched In July, the central bank continued its MLF operations on the 15th with reduced volume and unchanged interest rates, but unexpectedly "added" a 20 basis point rate cut on the 25th. Experts suggest that during the transitional period of adjusting the timing of MLF operations, financial institutions need to pay more attention to the mid-month liquidity situation. If future MLF operations are all postponed to the 25th of each month, financial institutions will face a new challenge in liquidity management due to the existing MLF maturing around the 15th of the month, as well as other factors such as tax periods in the middle of the month.

The China central bank's work conference for the second half of the year proposed to "continue to implement a prudent monetary policy." It emphasized increasing financial support for the real economy, shifting the focus more towards benefiting the people and promoting consumption. By comprehensively using various monetary policy tools, maintaining reasonable and adequate liquidity, ensuring that the scale of social financing and the money supply match the expected targets of economic growth and price levels, and promoting a stable and slightly declining overall social financing cost.

U.S. July CPI and PPI Inflation Data

The U.S. July CPI data will be released on Thursday, August 14th at 20:30 Beijing time, potentially signaling a more complex inflation outlook.

Wall Street expects that in July, the year-on-year increase in core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) is expected to decrease by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2% compared to June, potentially reaching the lowest level since May 2021; however, the month-on-month increase may rebound from 0.1% in the previous month to 0.2%.

The overall CPI year-on-year increase is expected to remain at 3%, the lowest level since June 2023; with a 0.2% increase month-on-month, compared to a 0.1% decrease in June.

This is the penultimate CPI report released before the next Fed interest rate decision in September, with a potential decrease in core inflation enhancing the Fed's confidence in cutting rates. Fed Chairman Powell previously stated that the earliest rate cut could be in September. However, before that, the Fed will focus more on the August non-farm payroll and CPI data.

Boston Fed President Collins stated that if the labor market remains strong and inflation continues to decline, it would be appropriate to start cutting rates soon. A survey released on Friday showed that nearly four-fifths of economists predict a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, rather than a larger cut as some major Wall Street banks have called for.

The PPI data to be released on Wednesday, August 13th may signal more positive news: the month-on-month increase in July PPI is expected to remain at 0.2%, while the month-on-month increase in core PPI is expected to decrease from 0.4% in June to 0.2%

Intensive Release of Chinese Concept Stocks' Financial Reports

The financial reporting season is ongoing, with a focus next week on the performance of popular Chinese concept stocks.

In the Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets, attention will be on the financial reports of Tencent, JD.com, Alibaba, Beike, and the retail giant Walmart will also release its new quarterly report. In the A-share market, focus will be on Wanhua Chemical, Industrial Fulian, Hikvision, ZTE, and Jiangsu Bank.

Additionally, it is worth noting that Taiwan's Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. will hold its second-quarter institutional investor conference at 3:00 pm Taipei time on August 14.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

China to Release July Property Price Data for 70 Cities

On August 14, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the monthly report on the sales price index of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Previous data showed that in June, the price decline of commercial residential buildings in various tier cities narrowed on a month-on-month basis; on a year-on-year basis, the price decline of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities also narrowed.

Multiple Countries to Release GDP Data

On August 14, the Eurozone will release the revised GDP for the second quarter; on August 15, the UK will release the revised GDP for the second quarter, and Japan will release the preliminary GDP for the second quarter. Next week, Singapore and Hong Kong, China will also release GDP data.

China's Ministry of Finance Plans to Issue 45 Billion Yuan Ultra-Long Special Bonds

According to a previous announcement by the Ministry of Finance, it plans to issue the 2024 ultra-long special bonds (fifth tranche) through the Beijing Financial Exchange Government Bond Issuance System. The bidding time will be from 10:35 to 11:35 on August 14. This batch of government bonds is a 20-year fixed-rate coupon bond, with a total competitive bidding face value of 45 billion yuan, and no additional bidding by Class A members will be conducted.

China's Ministry of Finance to Issue 9 Billion Yuan RMB Bonds in Hong Kong

According to a previous announcement by the Ministry of Finance, on August 14, the Ministry of Finance will issue the fourth tranche of RMB bonds due in 2024 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, with a scale of 9 billion yuan. Specific issuance arrangements will be announced in the Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

Israel Agrees to Resume Ceasefire Talks with Gaza

According to CCTV News, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement early on the 9th saying that, under the mediation of the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and others, Israel has agreed to resume negotiations on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of detainees on the 15th of this month.

Pakistan to Implement Visa-Free Policy for Chinese Citizens from August 14

On August 1st local time, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that Pakistan will implement a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens starting from August 14.

50th Anniversary of Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between China and Brazil

According to Xinhua News Agency, on August 15, 1974, China and Brazil established diplomatic relations. In 1993, the two countries established a strategic partnership. In 2012, the relationship between the two countries was upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Brazil was the first developing country to establish a strategic partnership with China and the first Latin American power to elevate bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Since 2009, China has been Brazil's most important trading partner and one of the main sources of foreign investment. Brazil is also China's largest trading partner in Latin America Singapore to hold National Day Rally

On August 18, Singapore will hold the National Day Rally, where Prime Minister and Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat will deliver his first National Day Rally speech since taking office, expected to outline important national policies.

US "Crew-9" Space Mission Begins

According to CCTV news, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and SpaceX plan to execute the "Crew-9" space mission as early as August 18.

At that time, the "Dragon" spacecraft will ride on the "Falcon 9" rocket, launching from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carrying 4 crew members to the International Space Station for a six-month scientific mission.

Trump says he will be interviewed by Musk

Reports indicate that former US Republican presidential candidate Trump announced that he will be interviewed by Elon Musk, CEO of the social media company "X" (formerly Twitter), on the evening of August 12 local time.

Faraday Future delivers the 13th FF new car

On August 7, Faraday Future founder, partner, Chief Product and User Ecology Officer Jia Yueting announced in a video on his social media that the 13th FF 91 2.0 will be delivered on August 12, slightly later than originally planned.

Annual Open Storage Summit by Supermicro, with chip giants like NVIDIA, AMD participating

From August 13 to August 29, Supermicro in the US will host the Annual Open Storage Summit. Experts from companies such as Supermicro, NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Nutanix, Micron, Kioxia, Western Digital, Seagate, DDN, VAST Data, WEKA, and others will discuss hardware and software storage solutions for AI, cloud service providers, HPC, media and entertainment, HCI, etc.

"Made by Google" Hardware Launch Event

Google's large hardware launch event "Made by Google" will take place on August 13, where the new Google Pixel 9 series and Pixel 9 Pro Fold will be officially unveiled.

OPEC and IEA release monthly oil market reports

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will respectively release their monthly oil market reports on Monday and Tuesday, focusing on the degree of disagreement between the two organizations on global oil demand.

Hang Seng Index Company announces the results of the second quarter review of the Hang Seng Index series

On August 16, the Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the second quarter review of the Hang Seng Index series.

2024 China (Shenzhen) Integrated Circuit Summit

The 2024 China (Shenzhen) Integrated Circuit Summit will kick off on August 16. The thematic forums include the IC Design and Innovation Application Forum, Semiconductor Manufacturing and Advanced Packaging Forum, Integrated Circuit Supply Chain Collaborative Development Forum, and Domestic EDA Innovation Ecology Development Forum, sharing new technologies, achievements, and trends in various sectors of the industry chain 2024 China (Guangzhou) Cross-border E-commerce Fair

The 2024 China (Guangzhou) Cross-border E-commerce Fair will be held from August 16th to 18th at Area A of the Canton Fair Complex. It is the largest in scale in recent years, with the highest number of participating platforms, the most concentrated leading platforms, and the largest investment among similar domestic exhibitions.

2024 World Youth Development Forum

On August 12th, the 2024 World Youth Development Forum will open in Beijing. The theme of this forum is "Youth Building a Better Future," co-hosted by the All-China Youth Federation, the United Nations Resident Coordinator System in China, and the World Youth Development Forum Organizing Committee. The forum's series of activities will invite heads of UN agencies, youth ministers from various countries, youth leaders, and representatives from various youth sectors to participate.

2024 Green Low-carbon Innovation Conference

The 2024 Green Low-carbon Innovation Conference will be held on August 15-16 in Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province. With the theme "Promoting Energy Transition Development, Building a Clean and Beautiful World," the conference will include an opening ceremony, parallel academic exchanges, and mass activities. It will invite scientific experts from home and abroad to deliver keynote speeches.

IPO Opportunities

From August 12th to August 16th, there will be 3 new IPOs in the A-share market, namely Guoketiancheng, Taihu Yuanda, and Xiaofang Pharmaceutical; there are no new listings in the Hong Kong stock market, and 1 stock will be listed in the U.S. stock market.

A total of 17 new funds (combined A-class and C-class) will be issued during the week.