Intelligent Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Senior Management Calms the Market and Ignites the Market, Reversing Bearish Sentiment as Funds Rush to Buy

[Market Analysis]

Today, both markets surged again, with the A-share Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3,000-point mark, a significant event as it broke through on high volume. The Hong Kong stock market also steadily climbed without suspense, closing up by 4.16%, with the Hang Seng Index reaching 19,924 points, just a step away from the 20,000 mark. Trading volume exceeded 300 billion.

As mentioned yesterday, the Chinese market is the largest market globally after the U.S. stock market, and its every move plays a crucial role in attracting overseas funds. A significant increase will inevitably attract foreign capital inflows. Goldman Sachs is the most sensitive, and its latest strategy report interprets the understanding of this round of easing policies. Goldman Sachs stated that these measures indicate policymakers' focus on economic growth and the market, enough to catalyze a rebound triggered by policy, similar to the tactical recovery conditions seen in April 2024. Until the real estate issue is resolved, the market will focus on trading opportunities, with a strategic recommendation to buy into shareholder return themes. Additionally, Goldman Sachs believes that compared to A-shares, Hong Kong stocks have a stronger earnings revision and advises investors to tactically invest in Chinese stocks. UBS Group AG is also following suit: with the Chinese government's coordinated planning, confidence and asset prices are expected to be boosted. UBS still expects the government to introduce more effective fiscal support measures in the coming months to stabilize economic growth. As mentioned yesterday, "Since Goldman Sachs publicly expresses this bullish view, it is not a whim but has logical support." However, it is important to note that this is a tactical recovery, which can be simply understood as a speculative move.

Regarding the current market situation, after experiencing a prolonged bear market, such a strong surge is definitely unsettling, as the inertia of thinking is to fear a fallback. For example, yesterday, there were many short positions in CITIC Futures. However, if one did not close out in time today or switch from short to long, the outcome would be very grim.

Today, the top leadership once again reassured the market. The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on September 26, emphasizing the need to increase the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, and effectively carry out grassroots "three guarantees" work. It is necessary to issue and use ultra-long-term special national bonds and local government special bonds well, to better leverage government investment to drive growth. It is necessary to reduce the reserve requirement ratio for deposits and implement a substantial interest rate cut. The key focus here is a substantial interest rate cut, which is a significant expectation and is in line with the Federal Reserve's expectation management. Efforts should be made to boost the capital market, strongly guide medium and long-term funds into the market, and remove barriers for social security, insurance, wealth management, and other funds to enter the market. It is explicitly mentioned that the aforementioned long-term funds should enter the stock market. Previously, it was to prevent entry into the market. From the perspective of these long-term funds, is it necessary to allocate to Tencent (00700), Meituan (03690), and Alibaba (09988) in the Hong Kong stock market? All three surged by over 6% today, a rare increase in magnitude; support for listed companies' mergers and acquisitions, steady advancement of public fund reforms, and research and implementation of policy measures to protect small investors. The key focus here is the reform of public funds, likely related to assessment mechanisms, as the previous short-sighted approach did not effectively stabilize the market.

More crucially, there are two key directions: 1. Real Estate: Efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market and respond to public concerns by adjusting housing purchase restrictions, lowering interest rates on existing home loans, and promptly improving land, fiscal, tax, financial, and other policies to promote the development of a new real estate model Note that the term "止跌回稳" is mentioned for the first time, very clear, indicating that real estate prices cannot fall anymore, equivalent to policy support. It is expected that specific measures to stabilize housing prices will be introduced next. This has given a boost to the real estate sector, with Longfor Group (00960), Sunac China (01918), Vanke (02202), and China Resources Land (01109) all rising by over 21%, along with other real estate and property-related stocks, generally seeing increases of over 10%. Such price increases are simply staggering. No wonder Middle Eastern investment groups have been bargain-hunting Chinese Aoyuan (03883) recently, seizing Chinese assets and de-dollarizing, which is the essence.

1. Consumer direction: To combine promoting consumption with benefiting people's livelihoods, increase incomes for middle and low-income groups, and enhance consumption structure. New consumption formats need to be nurtured. China is a manufacturing powerhouse, but the proportion of consumption is relatively weak. Without stimulating consumer spending, it is difficult to drive the consumption economy. Why stabilize real estate? Because it is the largest consumer sector. Shanghai is taking the lead in responding with concrete actions. Shanghai plans to distribute consumption vouchers worth 500 million yuan from municipal finances, with 360 million yuan for dining, 90 million yuan for accommodation, 30 million yuan for movies, and 20 million yuan for sports. The distribution will be in two phases, from the end of September to the end of October for the first phase, and from November to December for the second phase. Among them, the accommodation consumption voucher rules are as follows: spend 300 get 50 off, spend 600 get 130 off, spend 900 get 220 off, spend 1200 get 300 off.

Trading consumer stocks, this logic is very smooth. After the stock market picks up, investors make money, and then the consumption during the upcoming National Day holiday will follow suit. Looking at A-shares, liquor stocks have shown the strongest response, with almost all liquor stocks hitting the limit up, such as Wuliangye (000858.SZ), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH), Shede Winery (600702.SH), etc. The reason is that liquor consumption has been suppressed too much, and the fundamental resilience is the strongest. In Hong Kong stocks, corresponding liquor stocks like Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) surged by 16.69% today. Beer stocks include CR Beer (00291) and Tsingtao Brewery (00168), rising by over 17% and 11% respectively.

Looking at the consumer sector in Hong Kong stocks, it focuses on China's largest restaurant chains. For example, Helen's (09869), the first stock of small pubs, surged by over 75% today. Other hotpot chains like Haidilao (06862), Jiulongjiu (09922) also saw significant increases, reaching 35%, 18%, 17% respectively; Yihai International (01579), a hotpot base material supplier, also rose by nearly 15%. In the beverage category, Nayuki Tea (02150) and Tea Story (02555) surged by over 14%. In the dairy industry, Mengniu Dairy (02319) rose by nearly 12%.

In terms of shopping, it mainly focuses on duty-free shops. Look at how China Tourism (01880) has plummeted. Starting from the peak of 280 yuan on January 27, 2023, it has been on a continuous decline, hitting a low of 37.85 yuan, almost without any decent rebound in between. This stock can be defined as a barometer of consumption. Whether overall consumption in China can pick up depends on whether this duty-free stock can stabilize. It surged by over 14% today Sportswear consumption is also stimulated, and there is another reason. China has initiated an investigation into the PVH Group from the United States for its unreliable entity list, suspected of discriminating against Xinjiang-related products. The "Regulations on Unreliable Entity List" is a powerful tool for China's external sanctions. Once a foreign entity is included in the unreliable entity list, it means that many well-known brands under the PVH Group such as Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, and Van Heusen will face market access restrictions. This indirectly benefits the further rise of domestic brands, with Li-Ning (02331), Anta Sports (02020), and Xtep International (01368) all rising by more than 13%.

The Ministry of Commerce introduced the progress of negotiations between China and the European Union on the EU's anti-subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yongqian stated: Currently, the technical teams of both sides are actively negotiating flexible price commitment solutions in accordance with the direction set at this meeting, striving to reach a consensus on the solution framework before the final ruling. China not only has the greatest sincerity in properly resolving differences through dialogue and negotiation but also has the greatest determination to firmly defend the legitimate interests of Chinese enterprises. Overall, there is a high probability of achieving results through negotiations. Today, automotive stocks strengthened again, with Huachen Automotive Group (01114) and XPeng Motors (09868) both rising by over 11%. Almost all other automotive stocks are on the rise.

According to media reports, according to data from a booking website, during the first three days of the National Day Golden Week, a total of 7 hotels' rooms were sold out, including hotels under SJM Holdings (00880), MGM China (02282), Wynn Macau (01128), and Galaxy Entertainment (00027). Ma Haowen, Vice Chairman of Sands China (00487), which operates the "Sands Cotai Central" project in Macau, stated that the occupancy rate of their hotels during the first three days of the National Day Golden Week is about 80-90%, and they are confident it will be fully booked. In addition, Grant Bowie, President and Executive Director of MGM China, stated that the current booking situation for the two hotels in Macau is ideal, and the occupancy rate during the National Day Golden Week in mainland China is expected to reach 95% to 100%. The above-mentioned stocks performed well today.

Undoubtedly, the strong catalysis of policies has already reached a consensus from bottom to top, and the intensity is unprecedented. Now there is a need to reverse the bearish mindset and break free from various inertial constraints of bearish views. It is expected that the funds waiting on the sidelines will further increase their pace of entering the market, with major financial and real estate sectors as the main focus, consumer sectors being continuously explored, and the majority of bottom stocks having opportunities for a rebound.

[Sector Focus]

According to data from Air Travel Horizon Big Data, as of September 24th, the domestic flight ticket bookings for the National Day holiday (9.30-10.7) exceeded 7.3 million, with a daily booking volume during the holiday period increasing by about 17% compared to the same period last year and about 14% compared to 2019; the bookings for international and domestic flight tickets exceeded 1.25 million, with a daily booking volume during the holiday period increasing by about 155% compared to the same period last year, approximately 88% of the same period in 2019.

According to data from Qunar Big Data, it is estimated that during this year's National Day holiday, more than 60% of travelers will be from other provinces. Based on booking trends, the top 10 most popular cities for this year's National Day are Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai, Changsha, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Wuhan, and Qingdao, with hotel bookings outperforming the national average According to public data, during this National Day holiday, various regions have held multiple cultural and tourism activities to boost consumption. Changsha will host 85 cultural and tourism activities to welcome visitors, Hangzhou will hold 131 cultural and tourism activities, Chengdu stated that there will be over 350 cultural and tourism activities, and Chongqing will also see 750 events.

The booming travel direction will have a driving effect on the aviation industry, and the economy will also see enhancement at the business level. Key players in the aviation sector include Air China (00753), China Southern Airlines (01055), and China Eastern Airlines (00670). In the tourism sector, there are Tongcheng Travel (00780) and Ctrip Group (09961).

[Stock Analysis]

CITIC Securities (06030): Core business maintains industry leadership and actively explores global M&A business

The mid-term performance in 2024 shows total revenue and other income of 42.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.07%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 10.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.51%; basic earnings per share were 0.69 yuan; proposed to distribute an interim dividend of 2.4 yuan per 10 shares.

Comment: The company's core business continues to maintain a leading position in the industry. In terms of domestic equity financing, in the first half of 2024, the company completed 28 A-share underwriting projects with a total underwriting scale of 31.896 billion yuan (cash and asset classes), with a market share of 18.44%, ranking first in the market. The company's debt financing business continues to maintain a leading position in the industry. In the first half of 2024, a total of 2,071 bonds were underwritten, ranking first in the industry. The total underwriting scale was 877.119 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.08%, accounting for 6.74% of the total underwriting scale in the market, ranking first in the market; accounting for 14.36% of the total underwriting scale of securities companies, ranking first in the industry. In terms of major asset restructuring, the company completed several market-influential domestic M&A and restructuring transactions, including CITIC Group's acquisition of Huarong Financial Leasing, China Resources Group's acquisition of Changdian Technology, and Mindray Medical's acquisition of HyTest Medical. The company completed global M&A transactions involving Chinese enterprises with a scale of 5.314 billion US dollars, ranking second among Chinese securities companies; continuously strengthened the development of global M&A business, assisted China Baowu in acquiring the Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea; assisted European Granges AB in acquiring a production base in Shandong, China, actively introducing foreign investment.

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