Spitznagel expects that by the end of this year, the global market may suffer from "shocks" due to economic slowdown. The Fed's lowering of borrowing costs should make investors worried and consider more about the trend of stock prices next year. Bonds may be a safe haven
"Black Swan Fund" founder Mark Spitznagel predicts that global stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies will experience a decline and increased volatility by the end of the year.
On Thursday, September 26th, Spitznagel stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV that with the U.S. stock market reaching historic highs, traders are more confident in an economic soft landing. The stock market seems to be in a "Goldilocks zone," but investors should be wary of second-order effects. For example, despite the Fed cutting interest rates, an economic slowdown could lead to a sudden market collapse.
Spitznagel anticipates that global markets may suffer a "shock" due to economic slowdown by the end of this year. He mentioned:
"When the yield curve reverses and reverses again, the bell starts to toll, signaling the entry into the realm of black swans. Black swans are always lurking, but we are currently in their domain."
In 2024, thanks to corporate profit resilience, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and expectations that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession, the S&P 500 index has hit 42 new highs. However, Spitznagel believes that the Fed's lowering of borrowing costs should concern investors and prompt them to consider the trajectory of stock prices next year.
"Gold will decline, cryptocurrencies will also fall along with risky assets, bonds may be a safe haven, and market volatility will intensify in the coming months."
