Next week's heavy schedule: China-US September PMI, "Non-Farm Week" Powell continues to "rock the market"!

A summary of major financial events from September 30th to October 6th, all in Beijing time:

Key focus this week: China's September PMI, US August non-farm payroll report, multiple voting members of European and American central banks including Powell speaking intensively, Eurozone August PPI. In addition, several countries and regions including the US, Eurozone, and Japan will sequentially release the final September PMI data, and Tesla will announce third-quarter delivery data.

The Chinese financial markets will be closed during the National Day holiday from October 1st to 7th, with Hong Kong stocks closed on the 1st.

China's September PMI

On Monday (September 30th), China's official PMI and Caixin PMI data will be released.

Previously, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the August manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 49.1, tying with February 2024 as the lowest of the year, staying below the boom-bust line for four consecutive months; the non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the comprehensive PMI index was 50.1%, slightly down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the overall economic activity in China remains stable.

The August Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4, showing that the manufacturing business activity expanded after a brief slowdown in July, while due to the slowdown in new business growth and the employment index falling into contraction territory, the August Caixin services PMI slightly declined, reaching a yearly low.

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, interpreted the August official manufacturing PMI data by stating that due to factors such as recent high temperatures and heavy rainfall, as well as the off-season production in some industries, the manufacturing business activity in August slightly declined.

Analysts at CICC pointed out that both manufacturing production and demand have declined, with varying business conditions in the non-manufacturing sector, a decline in construction industry sentiment, and a slight recovery in service industry sentiment. The decline in the construction industry sentiment is mainly due to the bottoming out of real estate demand and the impact of high temperatures and heavy rainfall, while the service industry's recovery is mainly influenced by the peak summer travel season and increased travel demand due to the start of the school year.

The Sun Binbin team at TF Securities stated that the PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises continues to operate below the boom-bust line, indicating that operational pressures still exist, and both the construction and service PMIs are significantly weaker than seasonal norms.

Powell to Speak Again with Heavy Employment Data

On Tuesday (October 1st), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the National Association for Business Economics.

On Friday (October 4th), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August non-farm payroll report.

Since the Federal Reserve has clearly stated that it will focus on the job market, the August non-farm payroll data will provide the latest guidance for the Fed's interest rate cut path this year.

According to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, economists currently generally expect the number of new non-farm jobs added in August to decrease from the previous 142,000 to 140,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%, indicating a stable recovery in the labor market and providing support for the market's optimistic rate cut expectations.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market is currently betting that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's November meeting is over 50%, with an expected total rate cut of 75 basis points this year.

While according to the Fed's latest dot plot, FOMC members expect only a further 50 basis point rate cut this year, meaning a 25 basis point cut at each meeting.

Some believe that the ideal level of unemployment is equal to or below 4.4%, and any increase beyond this level may further complicate the Fed's rate cut measures, which may be reflected in the magnitude of the rate cut in November.

Before the release of non-farm payroll data, the September ISM Manufacturing, September ADP Employment, and Non-Manufacturing PMI to be released on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday respectively are also worth paying attention to, as the market may look for early signs of the performance of the U.S. economy and job market in the third quarter.

Tesla's Third Quarter Delivery Volume Expected to be Strong

On Friday (October 4th), Tesla will release its third-quarter delivery data.

Data released last quarter showed that Tesla delivered a total of 444,000 new cars in Q2, exceeding the market's expectation of 439,300 units. Some analysts pointed out that the strong delivery data in the second quarter mainly came from sales in China and the U.S. exceeding expectations.

Currently, FactSet data shows that analysts unanimously expect Tesla's global delivery volume in the third quarter to be 462,000 units, a 6% increase from the same period last year. Analysts also predict that by the fourth quarter, Tesla's delivery volume will reach a record level, on par with the same period last year.

Some analysts point out that Tesla's sales in the Chinese market this quarter are expected to remain strong, possibly achieving the highest quarterly delivery data ever. In a recent report, Barclays Bank stated that Tesla's third-quarter delivery exceeding expectations may boost the company's stock price and send a signal to investors that "concerns about the fundamentals have dissipated."Wall Street News previously mentioned that for Tesla, October is full of catalysts. In addition to the delivery data announced on the 4th, Tesla will also officially release Robotaxi on the 10th and announce third-quarter financial report on the 16th.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

• On Wednesday (October 2), the OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries ministerial supervisory committee held a meeting.

Novak, Russia's top oil official and OPEC meeting representative, stated that the organization currently has no plans to change the current production plans, and all OPEC+ oil-producing countries are fully complying with the agreed production quotas. Attention is on whether this meeting will adjust oil production.

• After the U.S. stock market on Wednesday (October 2), Nike released its Q1 financial report for the 2025 fiscal year.

In the last quarter, Nike's financial report showed that Q4 revenue only slightly increased by 1% to $13.39 billion, below analysts' expectations of $13.46 billion. The company also lowered its profit guidance, announced large-scale layoffs, leading to a post-market plunge of over 10% in the company's stock price.

On September 19, Nike announced that veteran Elliott Hill will succeed John Donahoe as CEO, effective from October 14, 2024. Donahoe will retire on October 13.

• On Thursday (October 3), the Eurozone will release August PPI data.

The data released last month showed that the Eurozone's PPI in July fell by 2.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 2.5% and the previous value of 3.2%; on a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.8%, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.5%. It shows that the Eurozone's manufacturing sector is under pressure, and the phenomenon of weak demand is becoming more apparent.

Energy is the main driver of price increases, with energy prices soaring by 2.8% month-on-month in July.

As inflation concerns gradually dissipate and the economy continues to weaken, market expectations for the European Central Bank to accelerate interest rate cuts have risen sharply.

Currently, the market is betting that the ECB will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on October 17, with the probability rising to 80%. HSBC also predicts a rate cut by the ECB in October. HSBC's Chief European Economist Simon Wells and his team believe,The European Central Bank will start a consecutive 25 basis point rate cut from October, until the deposit rate drops from the current 3.5% to 2.25%.

IPO Opportunities

During the week (September 30th - October 6th), there was 1 new stock issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and 1 new stock available for subscription.

A total of 6 new funds were issued during the week (A and C classes combined), including 2 bond funds, 0 hybrid funds, 0 equity funds, 4 index funds, and 0 Reits.