China Index Academy: Expectations in the real estate market and buyer confidence have somewhat recovered, with a significant rebound in market activity in October
The China Index Academy pointed out that under the policy push, buyer confidence in the real estate market has somewhat recovered, and market activity significantly rebounded in October. Core cities have initially shown signs of stabilizing after a decline. If supportive policies continue to be introduced, a more stable market performance may be achieved. Policies include special bond support from the Ministry of Finance and interest rate cuts by the central bank, which promote a rebound in second-hand housing transaction volumes and halt price declines
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the China Index Academy stated that under the promotion of a package of policies, expectations in the real estate market and buyer confidence have somewhat recovered, with a noticeable rebound in market activity in October. In the short term, considering the lagging nature of online signing data, it is expected that the activity level of online signed transactions will continue into the first half of November. Currently, the core city markets have shown initial signs of stabilizing after a decline in both volume and price. If supportive policies can continue to be introduced to consolidate the effects of previous measures, core cities may be expected to stabilize after the decline.
In October, various central ministries continued to introduce policies to promote the "stabilization after decline" of the real estate market. The National Development and Reform Commission proposed "comprehensive policy measures to promote stabilization in the real estate market in response to its continued weakness"; the Ministry of Finance proposed special bonds to support the recovery of idle land and existing commercial housing; the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and four other ministries introduced a "combination punch" of policies to promote stabilization, proposing "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases." At the same time, the central bank's interest rate cut was implemented, with both the 1-year and 5-year LPRs lowered by 25 basis points. Supported by the "package" of policies since the end of September, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in key cities significantly rebounded in October, and prices also showed signs of stabilizing after a decline.
In October, the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities narrowed
Figure: Average listing price and year-on-year comparison of second-hand residential properties in the top ten cities in October 2024
Figure: Average price and month-on-month changes of second-hand residential properties in the top ten cities from July 2020 to October 2024
Data Source: China Index Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
According to the China Real Estate Index System's price index for 100 cities, in October 2024, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities fell by 0.60% month-on-month, narrowing the decline by 0.10 percentage points compared to the previous month; it fell by 7.27% year-on-year. In October, the average price of second-hand residential properties in the top ten cities fell by 0.33% month-on-month, narrowing the decline by 0.47 percentage points compared to the previous month; it fell by 7.51% year-on-year.
Specifically, the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, except for Hangzhou which remained basically flat compared to the previous month, narrowed in all other cities among the top ten. Shanghai and Shenzhen saw significant narrowing, both exceeding 0.7 percentage points, while Beijing, Wuhan, and Chongqing narrowed between 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points, and Guangzhou and Tianjin narrowed between 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.
Beijing: The number of second-hand housing transactions reached a new high since April last year, with a significant narrowing of the month-on-month price decline
Figure: Number of second-hand residential transactions and month-on-month price trends in Beijing from July 2020 to October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
In terms of transactions, in October, Beijing's second-hand residential transactions reached 17,367 units, a month-on-month increase of 30.8% and a year-on-year increase of 63.0%, marking the highest number of transactions since April last year; the cumulative transactions from January to October increased by 4.2% compared to the same period last year. In terms of prices, in October, the price of second-hand residential properties in Beijing fell by 0.29% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.64 percentage points compared to the previous month. Since the end of September, favorable policies in the real estate market have emerged frequently, market confidence has somewhat recovered, and the willingness of homebuyers to purchase has significantly improved, making the real estate market's "Golden October" quite substantial.
Figure: Average listing price and year-on-year comparison of second-hand residential properties in various districts of Beijing in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
Table: Typical new housing projects in Beijing in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
Shanghai: Second-hand housing transactions exceed 20,000 units, with significant month-on-month and year-on-year growth
Figure: Number of second-hand residential transactions and month-on-month price trends in Shanghai from July 2020 to October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
In terms of transactions, driven by the "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy, in October, Shanghai's second-hand residential transactions reached 21,779 units, a month-on-month increase of 56.2% and a year-on-year increase of 70.0%, with cumulative transactions from January to October increasing by 10.0% compared to the same period last year. In terms of prices, in October, the price of second-hand residential properties in Shanghai fell by 0.10% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.70 percentage points compared to the previous month Figure: Average Listing Price and Year-on-Year Comparison of Second-Hand Residential Properties in Shanghai's Districts in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhidata CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
Table: Typical New Housing Projects in Shanghai in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhidata CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
Guangzhou: New Policies Boost Market Confidence Recovery, Price Decline Rate Continues to Narrow
Figure: Comparison of Month-on-Month Trends of Second-Hand Residential Prices in 100 Cities, Top 10 Cities, and Guangzhou from July 2020 to October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhidata CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
In October, the price of second-hand residential properties in Guangzhou fell by 0.26% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points compared to the previous month. At the end of September, Guangzhou completely lifted the housing purchase restrictions, making it the first-tier city with the strongest policy support in this round. Driven by the favorable new policies, the transaction activity in Guangzhou's second-hand housing market significantly rebounded in October, and the price decline continued to narrow. With market confidence continuing to recover, it is expected that the heat of Guangzhou's second-hand housing market will likely continue in November.
Figure: Average Listing Price and Year-on-Year Comparison of Second-Hand Residential Properties in Guangzhou's Districts in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhidata CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
Table: Typical New Housing Projects in Guangzhou in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
Shenzhen: The number of second-hand housing transactions doubled year-on-year, reaching a new high since April 2021
Figure: Number of second-hand residential transactions and month-on-month price trends in Shenzhen from July 2020 to October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
In terms of transactions, in October, Shenzhen recorded 6,118 second-hand residential transactions, a month-on-month increase of 91.7% and a year-on-year increase of 120.5%, reaching a new high since April 2021; the cumulative year-on-year growth from January to October was 50.6%. In terms of prices, in October, the price of second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen fell by 0.05% month-on-month, narrowing by 0.78 percentage points compared to the previous month. Since the introduction of the new policy on September 29, the market has continued to heat up, with a significant increase in second-hand housing transaction volume and a continuous recovery of market confidence. In the short term, the new policy is expected to continue to take effect, and the Shenzhen second-hand housing market is expected to maintain a high level of activity in November.
Figure: Average listing price and year-on-year/month-on-month comparison of second-hand residential properties in various districts of Shenzhen in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/
Table: Typical new housing projects in Shenzhen in October 2024
Data Source: Zhongzhi Data CREIS (click to view)
Market Monitoring: https://www.cih-index.com/