Goldman Sachs joins the bullish camp! Raises the S&P 500 target to 6,500 points by the end of 2025
Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 target to 6,500 points by the end of 2025, expecting a 10.3% increase in the index driven by strong economic growth and corporate earnings. Goldman Sachs' Chief Equity Strategist David Kostin noted that U.S. GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, with corporate earnings increasing by 11%. Meanwhile, analysts warn that U.S. stocks face both upside and downside risks, predicting that the performance of the "seven giants" of U.S. stocks will outperform other components, but the gap is the smallest in seven years
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs expects that driven by strong economic growth and corporate earnings, the S&P 500 index will reach 6,500 points by the end of next year, which is consistent with the baseline forecast provided by Morgan Stanley. This target implies a 10.3% increase from the closing price of the benchmark index. Goldman Sachs previously set a 12-month target of 6,300 points for the S&P 500 index.
David Kostin, the bank's chief equity strategist, wrote in the report, "In our baseline macro outlook, the economy and corporate profits will continue to grow, and bond yields will remain near current levels."
Yesterday, Morgan Stanley analysts also provided a similar forecast. Michael Wilson, a strategist known for his bearish stance on U.S. stocks, expressed an optimistic view on the outlook for U.S. stocks in 2025, stating that the S&P 500 index will close around 6,500 points next year, driven by improved economic growth and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Goldman Sachs expects that the U.S. real GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2025, and corporate profits will increase by 11%. At the same time, it pointed out the upside and downside risks for U.S. stocks, noting that a more dovish Federal Reserve may boost the stock market, but Trump's tariff plans and higher bond yields may exert pressure.
Meanwhile, it is expected that by 2025, the performance of the "seven giants" of U.S. stocks will continue to outperform other components of the S&P 500 index. However, Goldman Sachs stated that the performance of the seven giants will only exceed by about 7 percentage points, the smallest gap in seven years.
"Although the 'micro' earnings story supports continued strong performance, the risks from more 'macro' factors such as economic growth and trade policy tend to balance towards the 493 companies."