In November, 43 tons of gold were bought! Goldman Sachs revealed a "mysterious gold buyer": an anonymous central bank circumventing Switzerland
Goldman Sachs estimates that in November last year, the gold purchases by central banks and institutions in the over-the-counter market reached 117 tons, far exceeding the expected 46 tons. Among them, an anonymous central bank purchased 43 tons of gold through Swiss channels, second only to the 50 tons purchased by the People's Bank of China
At the end of last year, there was a surge in off-exchange gold buying, with a "mysterious buyer" emerging.
In a research report released on January 19, Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven found that central bank gold demand in the off-exchange market had unexpectedly increased recently, prompting them to raise their forecast for central bank purchases this year.
Goldman Sachs stated in the report that, according to the latest estimates, in November, central banks and institutions purchased 117 tons of gold in the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, far exceeding the previous expectation of 46 tons.
Specifically, the People's Bank of China remained the largest buyer, purchasing a total of 50 tons of gold in November, followed by an anonymous central bank that bought 43 tons of gold through Swiss channels.
Based on this, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the average monthly gold purchases by central banks in 2025 from 38 tons to 41 tons, more than double the 17 tons level before 2022.
However, despite raising the central bank demand forecast, Goldman Sachs still maintains its prediction that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce in the second quarter of 2026, mainly because the bank expects the Federal Reserve's rate cuts this year to be more restrained, leading to a decline in gold ETF demand.
The report indicates that Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve's rate cut this year to decrease from 75 basis points to 50 basis points, with one less rate cut equivalent to a reduction of 60 tons in gold ETF holdings, roughly offsetting the potential increase in central bank demand this year.