2023.10.02 16:06
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"Master of Promises" Musk, the Cybertruck has once again been delayed, making it difficult to increase deliveries within the year.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had previously stated in the spring of this year that the Cybertruck would be delivered in the third quarter. However, things did not go as planned, and now that September has passed, consumer expectations have once again been dashed. Even if deliveries can be made within the year, the short-term production of the Cybertruck will not see a significant increase due to the company's factory shutdown for upgrades.

The Cybertruck, which made a stunning debut, has kept consumers waiting.

Throughout September, there were few updates on the delivery of the Cybertruck, leading to speculation about the reasons for the delay and further concerns about Tesla's recent product line.

Tesla has always been confident that consumers have the patience to wait for this unique electric pickup truck. The Cybertruck is Tesla's first passenger vehicle in over three years, with its distinctive triangular shape, stainless steel exterior, and massive windshield. Tesla also claims that the vehicle is bulletproof.

However, insiders have revealed that it is precisely these unique design and features that have made it difficult for the Cybertruck to enter the market.

Frequent delays have become a habit

The Cybertruck was originally scheduled for mass production in 2021, but it experienced multiple delays, putting immense pressure on Tesla. The market questioned whether its outdated product line could sustain revenue growth in a time when demand for electric vehicles was weakening.

In April of this year, during Tesla's first-quarter earnings report, Elon Musk announced that the Cybertruck delivery event would be held in the third quarter, officially launching sales. However, by July, he began hinting at delivery delays and avoided directly answering questions about the pricing and delivery date of the Cybertruck. He only stated that Tesla would deliver the vehicle sometime this year.

At the time, he said:

"The Cybertruck is packed with a lot of new technology, a lot. It looks completely different from other ordinary vehicles because it is fundamentally different from them."

Tesla garnered a lot of attention when it unveiled the Cybertruck, and as of 2020, orders had already exceeded 500,000.

However, Musk has yet to disclose the latest order numbers. As the delay for the Cybertruck grows longer, the risk for committed consumers also increases, especially as competitors expand the range of choices available to consumers.

Musk also mentioned that the pricing and technical specifications of the Cybertruck may change due to inflation. Initially, the base model was priced at $39,900, while the top-of-the-line version was $69,900.

For consumers who placed reservations for the Cybertruck years ago, the concern is not when the vehicle will be delivered, but how much they will have to pay upon delivery. Maurice Moortgat, a retired network security analyst who reserved the Cybertruck in 2019, stated that for him, the Cybertruck is like a toy, and he would be willing to pay $65,000 for the mid-range version. However, the initial price for the mid-range version was $49,900, which now seems unlikely.

A production model that defies tradition

In fact, the Cybertruck has always been an outlier in the automotive industry. When launching a new product, most car manufacturers usually aim to minimize variables and often share components with other models to avoid overly complex production lines. But when it comes to the Cybertruck, its battery technology is new, the factory has been built for less than two years, and the design of this car itself is also very complex.

For example, the triangular shape of the Cybertruck is wrapped in stainless steel, so the body is heavier than the metal used in traditional car body panels. Insiders say that this extra weight makes it difficult for Tesla to achieve the target mileage of the Cybertruck, and Tesla has spent months trying to reduce the weight of the body.

At the same time, Tesla employees have also found that, while controlling costs, it is difficult for the Cybertruck to fulfill Musk's promise of bulletproofing; the actual bulletproof capability of this car is still unknown.

In contrast, the Model Y, derived from the Model 3 sedan, follows the production strategy of traditional car manufacturers; before the launch of the Model Y in 2019, Musk had stated that this car would share about 75% of its components with other models.

Will the pre-production version hit the road? It is also difficult to increase deliveries this year

While the Cybertruck continues to be delayed, Tesla is leaning towards using existing models to drive revenue growth.

Tesla previously launched a minor update to the Model 3, with a higher price and longer range, but it has not yet started selling in the United States.

Meanwhile, the pre-production version of the Cybertruck was recently spotted in San Francisco, which has excited Tesla fans, believing that this car is finally about to be delivered.

However, even if Tesla can deliver the Cybertruck this year, it will be difficult to increase production in the short term; Musk has warned that the summer shutdown and upgrade of some of the company's factories will slow down production.

In addition, inflation is still eroding the financial capacity of ordinary households, and consumers are hesitant to spend, making it difficult to make large investments such as buying a car.

According to Tesla's delivery data released on the 2nd, the company delivered 435,059 vehicles in the third quarter, lower than the market's expected 456,722 vehicles; the third-quarter car production was 430,500 vehicles, also lower than the market's estimated 462,000 vehicles; at the same time, the production and delivery volumes of all models were below expectations.

Ben Kallo, an analyst at investment bank Robert W. Baird, expressed concerns last week about Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter, citing the expected reduction in production capacity at Tesla's factories and the sluggish demand for electric vehicles.

Musk had previously told investors in January that production could reach 2 million units this year, but in July, the production target was lowered to 1.8 million units. Therefore, regardless of whether the Cybertruck can be delivered this year, there is not much room for production to increase.

Analysts predict that the delivery volume of the Cybertruck will be difficult to increase quickly, after all, the manufacturing of this car is more complex, and it is expected that the production capacity will increase slowly.

At the same time, when Tesla's factory upgrades are completed, the company will continue to increase production, and analysts predict that Tesla's total production next year could exceed 2 million units.