2025, navigating the cycle, getting things done steadily | Year-end summary series

In 2024, the domestic economy is expected to achieve a "dragon soaring" growth of 5%, which should be a year worthy of applause post-pandemic. However, for many people, the reality may not feel as "soaring" — persistent prices, unsold goods, and declining housing prices...

From the perspective of the capital market, pessimists may be correct, but optimists are the ones truly making money. Looking back at the core indices of the global market in 2024:

The differences in most markets are merely differences in growth rates, not directional differences in rising or falling. Chinese assets are no exception:

Perhaps the microeconomic experience is not good, but Chinese assets correspond to major market indices, such as the Hang Seng Index, which has an average increase of nearly 20%. Compared to the evidently booming U.S. stock market, the yield difference is not significant.

The year 2024 almost confirms the new post-pandemic world pattern:

United States: Re-industrialization of old capitalism supported by sovereign deficits. Government borrowing drives reinvestment in infrastructure and manufacturing, while generative AI spurs corporate capital expenditure cycles.

The overlap and resonance of economic cycles and industrial cycles make this round of the U.S. "Goldilocks" cycle seem particularly long. However, the three major policies of Trump’s administration: "tariff stick, America first, territorial and trade expansion," seem to further fuel the already hot U.S. economy.

Domestic: New kinetic energy switching, a long and torturous "wheel replacement" period. Some may still think that the decline of the "animal spirit" in the private economy began during the pandemic, which may indeed have some truth. But there is also a medium to long-term logic: as urbanization in China approaches 70% while facing a declining birthrate, the Chinese economy has not been able to quickly switch gears. The "infrastructure + real estate" wheels have deflated too quickly, and it takes time for new economic growth momentum to catch up.

The short-term issue in the meantime is the uncomfortable deflation. Fortunately, as we reach the second half of the year, policymakers have begun to realize that while chasing distant stars and oceans, the road beneath their feet has also collapsed too severely. They have started to manage deflation expectations across multiple dimensions, such as "prices, asset prices," to curb the self-fulfilling nature of expectations. Therefore, economic figures and targets not only need to consider their own realization but also the significance of expectation management within them.

A grain of dust in the macro world becomes a mountain for individuals. But in the face of the tragic mountain, some choose to lie flat and pretend to be dead, while others are "refined by fire into true gold."

Whether it is "good winds relying on strength, sending me to the blue sky," or "headwinds not understanding intentions, suffering cold to refine pearls," these are the quality assets that Dolphin 君 aims to explore through repeated "bold hypotheses and cautious verifications."

Next, Dolphin will divide the covered assets into the "Refined Gold Group" of Chinese assets and the "Send Me to the Sky" group of overseas assets.

Let's sort out the winners and losers of 2024 and try to look ahead to 2025.

Next, Dolphin will provide an overall review of 2024 from multiple industry perspectives, including e-commerce, internet, and new energy.

Risk Disclosure and Statement of this Article: Dolphin Investment Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure