The US stock market has risen for six consecutive days, with the Dow Jones hitting a new all-time high. However, the excitement of the dovish turn has cooled down, and there was a temporary decline. The European and British central banks have suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger euro and pound.

The signal of three interest rate cuts next year released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday continues to have an impact, supporting further gains in US bonds. The retail sales data for November, which was released on Thursday, was stronger than expected, with a MoM growth turning positive. The number of initial jobless claims, which was released last week, did not stabilize but instead fell, enhancing hopes for a soft landing. As a result, the US stock market has been on the rise for the past week.

The prices of US Treasury bonds, which surged on Wednesday, continued to rise, with yields plunging more than 10 basis points. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond fell below the 4.0% mark for the first time since August, and the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, fell below 4.40% for the first time in six months. After the Bank of England and the European Central Bank meetings, most of the rate cuts narrowed. After the release of retail and jobless data, major US stock indices opened higher.

Market expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year have further increased. At one point during Thursday's trading session, the market priced in a total rate cut of 160 basis points next year, equivalent to at least six 25 basis point cuts.

While the upward momentum of the three major US stock indices faded during the trading session and turned negative, several blue-chip technology stocks, such as Microsoft, fell during the session. As the S&P 500 is already in overbought territory, there are concerns that the US stock market may have risen too much and is facing the risk of a correction. Some commentators have said that the stock market rally cannot be sustained. In the past two years, when the market bet on interest rate cuts, it was caught off guard when the Federal Reserve did not take action as expected. In the coming months, unexpected data on CPI or employment could prompt traders to change direction.

While the Federal Reserve is expected to turn dovish, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which announced their decisions on Thursday, did not soften their tightening stance. Both central banks kept interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England reiterated its rate guidance, stating that if there are signs of longer-lasting inflationary pressures, it may raise rates again. Governor Bailey said that there is still a long way to go in the fight against inflation. The European Central Bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining a restrictive policy as long as necessary. President Lagarde said that vigilance must not be relaxed and that the European Central Bank did not discuss interest rate cuts.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank have poured cold water on market expectations for interest rate cuts. European bond yields rebounded during the trading session, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year German bond erasing more than 10 basis points of its decline and turning higher. The euro and the pound both strengthened, with gains exceeding 1%, driving the US dollar index to fall below 102.00 for the first time in four months. The weakened US dollar supported the rise of the renminbi. The onshore renminbi against the US dollar briefly broke through the 7.10 level, rising more than 1%, while the offshore renminbi approached 7.11 during intraday trading, reaching a six-month high.

The expectation of a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve has weakened the US dollar and supported a general rise in commodities. Various base metals have recently seen rare large gains, with copper rising more than 2% in a single day for the first time in five months due to supply constraints. Gold has also surged, with gold futures rising more than 3% at one point during intraday trading and closing up more than 2%, marking the strongest single-day gain in two months since the escalation of the Middle East conflict three weeks ago. International crude oil has continued to rise after the Federal Reserve meeting, with intraday gains exceeding 4%, marking the largest daily increase in nearly a month since market expectations of OPEC+ increasing production cuts. US oil easily regained the $70 level.

The S&P 500 hit a new two-year high, while the Nasdaq 100 halted its five-day rally. Microsoft led the decline in blue-chip technology stocks, while chip stocks and Chinese concept stocks outperformed the broader market.

The three major US stock indices opened higher and maintained their gains in early trading. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose more than 0.8% in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 37,200 points in early trading, reaching an intraday historical high. At midday, it rose nearly 200 points, up more than 0.5%. The S&P 500 rose nearly 0.7% at midday. Subsequently, the three major indices all experienced a brief decline, with the Dow Jones falling nearly 40 points, the S&P 500 falling nearly 0.3%, and the Nasdaq falling more than 0.6%. However, they all rebounded and the gains expanded in the final trading session.

The three major indices have risen for six consecutive trading days, but the gains are not as strong as Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which rose more than 510 points or 1.4% on Wednesday, closed up 158.11 points or 0.43% at 37,248.35 points, marking a new closing high for two consecutive days. The S&P 500, which rose 1.37% on Wednesday, closed up 0.26% at 4,719.55 points, marking a new closing high since January 12 last year for two consecutive days and a new high since January last year for three consecutive days, approaching the historical high set two years ago. The Nasdaq Composite, which rose 1.38% on Wednesday, closed up 0.19% at 14,761.56 points, setting a new high since January 14 last year for two consecutive days.

Small-cap stocks, mainly value stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, maintained their gains throughout the day, closing up 2.72%, outperforming the broader market for two consecutive days and reaching a high since April 20 last year. The Nasdaq 100, which is dominated by technology stocks, initially fell in early trading, closing down 0.15%, falling from the high set on December 27, 2021, after a five-day rally. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, closed down 0.06% after a five-day rally, falling from the closing high set for three consecutive days. Major US stock indexes fluctuated during the day, with small-cap indexes performing well and maintaining gains throughout the day.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, six closed higher on Thursday. Energy stocks led the gains, rising nearly 3% due to a surge in oil prices. Real estate, sensitive to interest rates, rose over 2%, while materials, industrials, and non-essential consumer goods, including Tesla, all rose over 1%. Financials also rose over 0.9%. Among the five sectors that closed lower, utilities, which had surged 3.7% on Wednesday, fell over 1%, and essential consumer goods also fell over 1%. The other sectors fell less than 0.6%, with the IT sector, including Microsoft, falling over 0.3%, and communication services slightly declining.

Most leading technology stocks retreated, while Tesla opened high and continued to rise, gaining over 5% at midday and closing up 4.91%. This marks the second consecutive day of gains since October 17th, reaching a high closing price. Among the FAANMG six major technology stocks, Apple, which had risen over 0.8% in the morning, turned lower at midday and closed up 0.08%, marking three consecutive days of gains and reaching a new all-time high in two days. Amazon, which had set new all-time highs for two consecutive days on Wednesday, turned lower at the opening and closed down nearly 1%. Microsoft, which had a slight decline on Wednesday, opened low and continued to decline, closing down nearly 2.3%. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, which had a slight increase on Wednesday and released the music AI tool MusicFX, turned lower in the morning and closed down nearly 0.5%. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, which had maintained a downward trend since Wednesday, closing down nearly 0.5% after five consecutive days of gains since November 28th, reaching a high not seen since January of last year. Netflix, which had risen for five consecutive days and reached a high not seen since January of last year, turned lower at the opening and closed down 2.1%.

Chip stocks continued to rise for six consecutive days, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX closing up nearly 2.7% and 2.8% respectively, both setting new all-time highs for two consecutive days. Among individual stocks, Intel rose 5.6% in early trading and closed up nearly 1.4% after announcing the release of the new generation AI data center and PC chips and the upcoming Gaudi 3 chip that will surpass Nvidia's H100. Arm closed up 7.8%, Applied Materials closed up 3%, and Qualcomm closed up nearly 2%. Nvidia turned lower at midday but closed up over 0.5%, while AMD closed down over 0.1%.

Several AI concept stocks continued to rise. At the close, C3.ai rose nearly 11.7%, SoundHound.ai rose 3.2%, BigBear.ai rose nearly 2.2%, and Palantir rose 1.9%. However, Adobe, which fell over 7% in early trading due to lower-than-expected guidance for the 2024 fiscal year, closed down nearly 6.4%.

Popular Chinese concept stocks outperformed the broader market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose over 2% in early trading and closed up nearly 1.2%, marking four consecutive days of gains and reaching a new high since December 1st. Among individual stocks, at the close, Bitcoin mining giant Canaan rose nearly 32%, Gaotu Techedu rose over 29%, NIO and TAL Education rose over 5%, JD.com and JA Solar rose over 3%, Daqo New Energy rose 3%, and Li Auto rose over 2%. Alibaba and Xiaopeng Motors rose more than 1%, Tencent's fan-only rose 0.8%, Baidu rose nearly 0.5%, while NetEase fell more than 2%, and the first listed electronic cigarette company, Wuxin Technology, fell more than 1%, Pinduoduo remained flat.

Banking stocks continued to rise, outperforming the market for two consecutive days. The overall banking industry index, KBW Bank Index (BKX), rose nearly 5.1%, reaching a high since March 8th for two consecutive days; the regional banking index, KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), rose nearly 4.2%, continuing to refresh the high since March 8th, and the regional bank stock ETF, SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), rose 4.8%, refreshing the high since March 8th, both rising for two consecutive days.

Among the stocks with large fluctuations, Rivian (RIVN), a rival of Tesla, rose by about 14% after reaching an agreement with AT&T and AT&T will start buying its electric vehicles from early next year; Foot Locker (FL), a shoe retailer, rose by about 10% after being upgraded to overweight by Piper Sandler and raising its target price, optimistic about its prospects benefiting from downward inflation; Moderna (MRNA) rose nearly 9.3% after it was reported that the experimental vaccine jointly developed by Merck and Moderna would reduce the risk of skin cancer recurrence by half and the vaccine would still be effective three years after vaccination, while Merck (MRK) initially fell and closed down 0.4%; mining stocks Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) rose by nearly 7.1% and over 5.6% respectively due to the surge in copper prices; TripAdvisor (TRIP), a travel website, rose by 6.5% after being upgraded to buy by BTIG and its target price was raised to $25, about 38% higher than Wednesday's closing price; Live Nation (LYV), an entertainment company, rose by 5.7% after being upgraded to overweight by Morgan Stanley and optimistic about its long-term growth due to its ability to tap into the live music market; Western Petroleum (OXY) rose more than 3% during the day and closed up 2.7% after Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Warren Buffett, disclosed the purchase of 10.5 million shares worth nearly $590 million.

In Europe, despite the European Central Bank's suppression of interest rate cut expectations, the pan-European stock index rebounded under the influence of the Federal Reserve's dovish turn after two consecutive days of decline. The STOXX Europe 600 index reached a closing high since February 2nd last year. Most major European country stock indices rose, with the mining giant listed in the UK leading the gains, rising more than 1% for two consecutive days. The French and Italian stock indices, which fell for two consecutive days, and the Spanish stock index, which fell for three consecutive days, all rebounded, while the German stock index fell slightly, falling for three consecutive days and continuing to move away from the closing high.

Among the sectors of the STOXX 600, the real estate sector, which is sensitive to interest rates, rose nearly 5.6%, leading the gains, and the basic resources sector, driven by the rise in copper and other metals, rose 3.3%. Among the individual stocks, French media company Vivendi, which plans to consider splitting some of its businesses, rose 10%; Italian luxury brand Brunello Cucinelli, which raised its revenue growth guidance for this year, rose 6.9%. After the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meetings, European bond prices continued to rise, but yields rebounded and partially erased some of the declines. At the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond, which had fallen more than 10 basis points for two consecutive days, closed at 3.78%, down 5 basis points during the day. It had dropped below 3.70% in early European stock trading, hitting a seven-month low. The yield on the 2-year UK bond closed at 4.29%, down 6 basis points during the day, and had dropped to 4.21% in early European stock trading, reaching a new low in over six months.

At the end of the bond market, the yield on the 10-year benchmark German government bond closed at 2.10%, down 6 basis points during the day. It had dropped below 2.03% in early European stock trading, hitting a low point in nearly nine months. It fell by about 13 basis points during the day. European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that she had absolutely not considered raising interest rates after the rate cut, and the yield rebounded to a daily high of 2.17%, erasing the decline and rising by about 1 basis point during the day. The yield on the 2-year German bond closed at 2.53%, down 11 basis points during the day, and had dropped to 2.46% in early European stock trading, falling by about 18 basis points during the day, reaching a low point in over eight months.

In the US, the yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond hovered around 4.02% in the Asian market, hitting a daily high. It then continued to decline, falling below 4.0% for the first time since August in early Asian stock trading. It dropped to around 3.93% in European stock trading, down about 9 basis points during the day. After the Bank of England and the European Central Bank announced their decisions before the US stock market opened, the yield rebounded and approached 3.99%. After the US stock market opened, the downward trend resumed, and it dropped below 3.89% at midday, hitting a four-month low. It fell by about 13 basis points during the day and closed at around 3.92% at the end of the bond market, down nearly 10 basis points during the day, marking a three-day decline.

The yield on the 2-year Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, hit a daily high above 4.43% in the Asian market, dropped below 4.40% in early Asian stock trading, and fell below 4.30% in European stock trading, reaching as low as 4.28%. It fell by nearly 15 basis points during the day, and after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank meetings, the decline narrowed. It approached 4.39% in early US stock trading and closed at around 4.39% at the end of the bond market, down nearly 3 basis points during the day, marking a two-day decline. However, the decline was far less than that on Wednesday, when it fell by about 30 basis points, marking the largest decline since the banking crisis in March. This Thursday, the yields of various maturities of US Treasury bonds have dropped by at least 20 basis points, with short-term yields falling by over 30 basis points.

The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies, rose above 102.80 before the European stock market opened, reaching a daily high. It rose by less than 0.1% during the day, but fell after the release of US unemployment data, with the US stock market falling below 102.00 for the first time since August 10th. At one point during the afternoon session, it fell below 101.80, reaching its lowest level since August 4th, with a decline of nearly 1.1% during the day.

By the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the US Dollar Index was slightly below 102.00, with a decline of nearly 0.9% during the day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell by nearly 0.8% for the second consecutive day, reaching its lowest level since July 31st. Both the US Dollar Index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index have fallen for three consecutive days.

Among non-US currencies, the euro has accelerated its rise against the US dollar since the announcement of the European Central Bank's decision, reaching above 1.100 during the US stock market session, reaching its highest level since November 29th, with an increase of nearly 1.3% during the day. The British pound has continued to rise against the US dollar after the Bank of England's meeting, approaching 1.2800 during the US stock market session, reaching its highest level since late August, with a 1.4% increase during the day. The Japanese yen has risen for three consecutive days, continuing to rise significantly during the session, with the USD/JPY falling below 141.00 during the Asian session, reaching a new low since the end of July, with a decline of over 1.3% during the day. However, it gradually narrowed its decline and was close to 141.90 at the close of the US stock market.

The renminbi, which rebounded strongly during Wednesday's session, continued to strengthen. The onshore renminbi (CNY) against the US dollar briefly rose above 7.10 to 7.0955 during the early US stock market session on Thursday, with a daily increase of slightly over 1%, reaching a new six-month high. At 3:00 am Beijing time, the onshore renminbi against the US dollar closed at 7.1099 yuan, up 601 points from the closing of the night session on Wednesday, an increase of over 0.8%.

The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar fell to a daily low of 7.1481 before the European stock market opened, but rose after the pre-market session and continued to rise during the US stock market session. It briefly approached the 7.11 level to 7.1106 during the early US stock market session, reaching its highest level since June 16th, with an increase of 278 points during the day, or nearly 0.4%. At 5:59 am Beijing time on December 15th, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was quoted at 7.1236 yuan, up 148 points from the closing of the New York session on Wednesday, with a three-day increase that was not as large as the increase of over 500 points on Wednesday, which was the largest increase since September 11th. Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $41,500 in early trading on the US stock market, hitting a daily low. It then rebounded and rose above $43,400 during midday trading, reaching a daily high. It increased by about $2,000 or nearly 5% from the low, and closed above $43,000. In the past 24 hours, it has seen a slight increase of less than 0.5%, continuing to stay away from the low of $40,300 on Monday, which was the lowest since December 4th.

London copper rises more than 2% in five months, gold futures see the largest increase in two months, briefly exceeding 3%

London base metal futures rose sharply on Thursday. London aluminum rose more than 3%, marking a three-day consecutive increase to a high since the end of November. London nickel, which had fallen for three consecutive days, also rose more than 3%, rebounding to a high since early December. London copper, which had fallen to a one-week low on Wednesday, closed up more than 2% for the first time since July 13th, and London zinc, which rose more than 2%, both rebounded to a high since early December. London tin also rose more than 2%, marking a three-day consecutive increase to a high in nearly two months.

New York gold futures maintained a strong upward trend on Thursday, closing higher for two consecutive days and reaching a daily high of $2,062.9 during early trading on the US stock market, with an increase of nearly 3.3% during the day.

COMEX February gold futures closed up 2.38%, marking the largest closing increase since a more than 3% increase on October 13th. It closed at $2,044.90 per ounce, surpassing $2,040 for the first time since last Thursday and far from the closing low of $1,993.2 on November 22nd, the day before the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision.

Spot gold had a smaller increase than gold futures on Thursday. It approached $2,048 during early trading on the US stock market, reaching a high since December 4th, with an increase of about 1% during the day, but gradually gave up most of the gains.

Bitcoin and spot gold rise together as real yields on US bonds decline

Crude oil sees largest increase in nearly four weeks, briefly rising more than 4% during trading

International crude oil futures maintained an upward trend throughout Thursday, rising after the opening of European stocks. US WTI crude oil had already reclaimed the $70 mark before the opening of European stocks. During midday trading on the US stock market, US oil approached $72.46, with an increase of 4.3%, and Brent crude oil rose to $77.30, with an increase of nearly 4.2%.

In the end, crude oil closed higher for two consecutive days, accelerating its rise after the Federal Reserve meeting, and achieving the largest daily increase since OPEC+ announced additional production cuts on November 17th. WTI January crude oil futures closed up nearly 3.04% at $71.58 per barrel, and Brent February crude oil futures closed up 3.16% at $74.61 per barrel. Both US oil and Brent oil reached their highest closing levels since last Tuesday, December 5th.

US gasoline and natural gas futures also rose. NYMEX January gasoline futures closed up 4.64% at $2.1188 per gallon, marking a two-day consecutive increase to a high since December 4th. NYMEX natural gas futures for January rose 2.44% to $2.3920 per million British thermal units, marking a two-day consecutive increase. This continues the upward trend from Tuesday's $2.311, which was the lowest closing price since June 12th when it reached $2.266.

WTI crude oil in the United States continued to rise after the Federal Reserve meeting, reaching $72 per barrel during the trading session.