Rating Quick Look | Target prices for TENCENT, BABA-SWR lowered! PDD, KUAISHOU-W "Strong Buy" confirmed

Goldman Sachs: Maintains "Buy" rating on TENCENT, lowers target price to HKD 426

The bank has lowered its revenue forecast to reflect slower game monetization progress and a slowdown in advertising growth. It is now expected that adjusted net profit for 2023-2024 will be RMB 153.5 billion and RMB 188.5 billion respectively. The target price has been lowered by 2% to HKD 426 from HKD 435.

The company's revenue growth in the fourth quarter of last year will face a temporary headwind due to the transition phase of domestic games, incomplete expansion of new games, and a high base for international games and advertising businesses.

Goldman Sachs: Maintains "Buy" rating on BABA-SW, lowers target price to HKD 118

The bank has lowered the target price for BABA-SW (09988) by 10% to HKD 118 to reflect the downward adjustment of profit forecasts and the valuation of Customer Management Business (CMR). The CMR valuation has been reduced from a P/E ratio of 10 times to 8 times, but the "Buy" rating is maintained due to the forecasted earnings growth rate of 9% for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026.

The bank has also lowered its revenue and adjusted net profit forecasts for the company to reflect slower growth in transaction volume and customer management revenue. It is now expected that adjusted net profit for the fiscal year 2024-2025 (ending in March) will be RMB 165.8 billion and RMB 172 billion respectively.

Goldman Sachs: "Conviction Buy" on Pinduoduo and KUAISHOU-W

Goldman Sachs expects this year to be dominated by alpha in the increasingly "zero-sum" mainland internet market, with the overall potential market (TAM) maturing and the continued growth of short video or private participants' market share. The bank believes that the themes in the mainland internet market this year include the continuous expansion of short video merchants' market share in multi-functional shopping and local service businesses, the potential to increase commission rates, normalization of local regulations, and a focus on shareholder returns to drive stock performance.

The bank has adjusted the target prices of some internet stocks, raising Pinduoduo's target price from $176 to $195 and lowering JD-SW's target price from HKD 205 to HKD 193, and giving each stock a "Buy" investment rating.

In the sector, the bank continues to list Pinduoduo and KUAISHOU-W in the "Conviction Buy" list and reiterates its "Buy" rating on Tencent, New Oriental-S, NetEase-S, Xiaomi-W, TAL Education, and Manbang.

Morgan Stanley: Raises target price for Xiaomi from HKD 19 to HKD 19.5, maintains "Overweight" rating

The bank believes that Xiaomi, in the favorable industry environment, is likely to become a disruptor in the electric vehicle market due to its leading innovation in advanced driver-assistance systems and the integration of smartphones, electric vehicles, and the Internet of Things.

In addition, the bank believes that Xiaomi's success in the smartphone market can be extended to the electric vehicle market through strict cost control and optimized engineering, as Xiaomi can launch products at attractive prices. Although Xiaomi is a latecomer in the electric vehicle field, it is believed that its electric vehicle business will also inherit the cost advantages.

The bank expects the intrinsic value of Xiaomi's electric vehicle business to be as high as RMB 90 billion, equivalent to a forecasted 2025 market-to-sales ratio of approximately 2.7 times, accounting for about 27% of the company's current market value. Citigroup: Maintains a "sell" rating on Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited, lowers target price to HKD 240

The bank has raised its investment income forecast for 2023 by 4%, taking into account potential gains from external investment portfolios in the fourth quarter of 2023. It maintains its earnings per share forecast for 2023 unchanged, but lowers the earnings per share forecast for the next two years by 9%. At the same time, the target price for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited is lowered from HKD 270 to HKD 240.

In addition, the bank has lowered its average daily turnover (ADT) forecast for Hong Kong stocks for the years 2023 to 2025 to HKD 102 billion, HKD 114 billion, and HKD 128 billion respectively, due to the subdued market sentiment.