Chip stocks surged by 4%, further boosting the rise of the US stock market. The S&P reached a new all-time high, with AMD surging nearly 20% this Thursday, setting new records along with NVIDIA.

Following the positive earnings report from Taiwan Semiconductor, chip stocks continued to rise strongly, leading the US stock market to new highs. The SPDR S&P 500 reached a historical high not seen in two years, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high after a week. Both NVIDIA and AMD, the chip giants benefiting from the AI boom, continued to set new record stock prices, with AMD surging nearly 20% in just four trading days this week.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Friday that cooling inflation could be beneficial for discussions on interest rate cuts. However, he emphasized that it is too early to determine when to cut rates, and the Fed will make decisions gradually based on data. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he hopes to see inflation rates truly fall to the Fed's target of 2% before considering rate cuts. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that it is premature to consider rate cuts and that more evidence of inflation consistently falling to 2% is needed before transitioning to a looser monetary policy. These three officials are the last to publicly express their views before the silent period leading up to this month's Fed interest rate meeting.

In the first two trading days of this week, speeches by Fed officials, including Fed Governor Lael Brainard, dampened market expectations for rate cuts in the near future, leading to consecutive declines in major US stock indices. This week, both the market's expectations for a rate cut in March by the Fed and the expected magnitude of rate cuts for the entire year of 2024 have decreased. However, with the support of technology stocks, especially chip stocks, the US stock market ultimately reached new highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average relied on a strong rally on Friday to reverse the downward trend of the entire week, achieving a thrilling cumulative increase.

This week, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in March and the expected magnitude of rate cuts for the entire year of 2024 have both decreased.

Commentaries suggest that the strong economic data released this week, such as retail sales, implies that the Fed may not be as aggressive in cutting rates as the market expects. However, the views of Fed officials on loosening monetary policy this year are fueling risk appetite. Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, commented that the leaders of the stock market's rise in 2023 have once again become the top choice for traders. Investors are once again holding growth stocks, technology stocks, AI concept stocks, and seven major blue-chip technology stocks such as NVIDIA.

In early trading, the University of Michigan released data showing that consumer inflation expectations for the next year unexpectedly declined to the lowest level since 2020, at 2.9%. After the data was released, US Treasury prices rebounded and yields fell during the trading session. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note reached a new high for the fourth consecutive day since the Fed's interest rate meeting last month, but retraced some of the gains after the release of consumer inflation expectations. However, it still showed an overall increase for the week, reflecting a cooling of rate cut expectations.

In the latter two days of this week, the trends of the US stock market and US Treasury diverged, with US Treasury prices retracing gains since the Fed's interest rate meeting last month. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index failed to replicate the intraday rebound after the release of Thursday's unemployment data. The decline widened after the announcement of consumer inflation expectations, continuing to fall from the one-month high set on Wednesday. However, this week, which saw speeches by Federal Reserve officials and economic data that dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, continued the cumulative upward trend since the beginning of the year. The yen hit a new low since the end of November during the session, gradually erasing its decline after the announcement of US inflation expectations, and the downward trend continued throughout the week. Japan's core CPI growth rate in December, which was announced on Friday, hit a year-and-a-half low, and the market expects the Bank of Japan to maintain its super loose monetary policy at its meeting next week.

In the commodity market, supported by the decline in the US dollar, gold continued to rebound. However, it failed to replicate the dramatic turnaround that erased the decline in the first four days of the previous week, making it the worst weekly performance since early December. In the oil market, there were signs of escalation in the Middle East tension. According to CCTV reports, Israel launched attacks on the southern region of Lebanon, and the Israeli military claimed to have carried out airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Although international crude oil failed to maintain its upward trend during Friday's session, the overall rebound momentum continued throughout the week. The Red Sea and Middle East tensions this week continued to drive oil prices higher, and the unexpected drop in US crude oil inventories announced by the Department of Energy was also a major driver. Factors such as concerns about oil demand prospects caused by some economic data and the strengthening of the US dollar have also weighed on oil prices.

Meanwhile, after two weeks of double-digit gains every week, US natural gas fell continuously this week, giving up all the gains since the beginning of the year, with a weekly decline of over 20%. Analysts at JPMorgan pointed out that the 30% year-on-year increase in US natural gas demand last week was mainly due to residential and commercial demand, electricity consumption, and industrial demand. However, the domestic supply of natural gas in the United States is already 11% higher than the five-year average.

The three major US stock indices all rose by more than 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq 100, Microsoft, and chip stocks all hit new historical highs.

The three major US stock indices opened higher for two consecutive days, with gains expanding to over 1% during the midday session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly turned lower in early trading but continued to rise later on, while the SPDR S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index maintained their gains throughout the day. During the midday session, the Dow rose more than 460 points, up over 1.2%. The SPDR S&P 500 rose nearly 1.3%, refreshing its intraday historical high set on January 4, 2022. The Nasdaq hit a new high in the late session.

In the end, the three major indices closed higher for two consecutive days. The SPDR S&P 500 rose 1.23% to 4,839.81 points, refreshing its closing historical high set on January 3, 2022. The Nasdaq rose 1.7% and the SPDR S&P 500 both recorded their largest gains since the release of Nvidia's new product on January 8, reaching 15,310.97 points, refreshing the closing high since January 4, 2022. The Dow rose 395.19 points, or 1.05%, marking its largest gain since December 13 and closing at 37,863.80 points, refreshing the closing historical high set last Thursday. The Nasdaq 100 index, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose 1.95%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index, rose 2.8%, marking a new closing high for two consecutive days. NDXTMC has risen 3.97% this week. The small-cap Russell 2000 index, which is dominated by value stocks, initially fell but rebounded at midday, closing up 1.08%. It fell after a four-day decline, approaching the closing low since December 12th.

With the significant gains on Thursday and Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes have accumulated gains for the week, but the small-cap index is still down.

In this week's four trading days, the Nasdaq rose 2.26%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2.86%, and the SPDR S&P 500 rose 1.17%, all rising for two consecutive weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.72%, falling after a rebound last week, and falling for the second week in the first three weeks of January. The Russell 2000, which fell slightly last week, fell 0.34% and has fallen for four consecutive weeks.

Among the Dow Jones constituents, UnitedHealth Group fell nearly 2.5%, leading the decline for two consecutive days. After Atlas Air reported another Boeing aircraft failure, Boeing initially fell more than 1% but later rebounded, closing up 1.6%. It has fallen 1.2% this week.

Among the major sectors of the SPDR S&P 500, only consumer staples, down more than 0.3%, and utilities, down more than 0.1%, closed lower on Friday. The IT sector, which includes chip stocks, rose nearly 2.4%, leading the gains. The communication services and financial sectors, which include Google and Meta, both rose 1.6%, while real estate rose nearly 1%. There were six sectors that fell this week, with utilities down 3.7%, energy down nearly 3.1%, real estate down more than 2%, materials down more than 1%, consumer staples down about 1%, and healthcare down 0.7%. Among the five sectors that rose, IT rose 4.3%, communication services rose nearly 2%, financials rose 0.9%, consumer staples rose 0.5%, and industrials rose nearly 0.3%.

Overall, chip stocks have risen for two consecutive days and outperformed the broader market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX both saw intraday gains of over 4%, closing up about 4% and 3.9% respectively, reaching a new closing high since December 27th. They have risen about 8% and 7.9% respectively this week. Among individual stocks, AMD initially fell but closed up 7.1%. It has risen about 18.9% this week. Nvidia closed up about 4.2%, rising 8.7% this week, reaching new intraday and closing highs for two consecutive days along with AMD. At the close, Broadcom and Arm rose nearly 6%, Applied Materials rose nearly 5%, Qualcomm rose over 4%, KLA rose nearly 4%, Micron Technology rose over 3%, and Intel rose 3%. Most leading technology stocks closed higher today. However, Tesla narrowly avoided a second consecutive day of decline, initially turning higher before reversing course. It fell more than 1% in early trading, but rebounded slightly in the afternoon session to close up nearly 0.2%. It is still close to the lowest closing level since November 1st, with a cumulative decline of nearly 3.2% this week.

Among the six FAANMG technology stocks, Meta, the parent company of Facebook, rose nearly 2% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a major restructuring of the company's AI division. This marked the third consecutive day of gains and a new record high closing price. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, rose about 2%, reaching a two-year high closing price. Microsoft rose 1.2%, hitting a new record high for the second consecutive day. Apple, which surged more than 3% on Thursday, rose nearly 1.6%, continuing its two-day rally and reaching a new high since December 29th. Amazon rose 1.2%, marking a two-day high since April 2022. Netflix, on the other hand, initially fell more than 1% and closed down 0.5% after halting its three-day decline on Thursday.

AI concept stocks collectively rose, outperforming the broader market. C3.ai (AI) rose more than 3%, while SoundHound.ai (SOUN), Palantir (PLTR), and Adobe (ADBE) rose more than 2%. BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose more than 6%.

Most popular Chinese concept stocks continued to decline, but the decline narrowed during the trading session, and some stocks turned higher. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell 2.5% in early trading and closed down 0.6%, marking a new low in over a year and a cumulative decline of 7.1% this week. Three new energy vehicle companies underperformed the market, with XPeng Motors, which fell more than 6% at the opening, closing down 2.3%. NIO, which fell more than 4% in early trading, closed down 3.5%. Li Auto, which fell 4% at the opening, closed down 2.3%. Among other individual stocks, Bilibili fell 3%, New Oriental Education fell nearly 3%, Baidu fell nearly 1%, Tencent Music Entertainment fell 0.8%, while NetEase rose 2.5%, Alibaba rose 2%, and JD.com and Pinduoduo rose more than 1%.

In terms of volatile stocks, Spirit Airlines (SAVE), a low-cost airline company, which had experienced three consecutive days of sharp declines due to concerns over antitrust issues with its planned acquisition of JetBlue, saw its stock price rise more than 20% at the opening. However, due to a cumulative decline of over 60% in the previous three days, it is expected to continue to decline this week. Media reports indicated that the European Union regulatory authorities are considering blocking Amazon's acquisition plan, causing consumer robotics company iRobot (IRBT) to fall more than 20% during the trading session. Celsius Holdings (CELH), a beverage company, fell more than 10% during the trading session after being downgraded from buy to neutral by Bank of America, citing uncertainties in its sales momentum. Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ), a rental car giant, fell 6% during the trading session after being downgraded from buy to hold by Jefferies, which expects its profitability to be temporarily affected by electric vehicle maintenance costs. After announcing a global layoff of 13% and becoming the latest action to reduce management and cut costs, home goods e-commerce company Wayfair (W) saw its stock rise more than 10% during trading. Ford Motor Company (F) saw its stock drop 4% in early trading after announcing a reduction in production of the all-electric pickup truck F-150 Lightning, but it rebounded and rose over 1% by midday.

In European stocks, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index returned to a downward trend after ending a three-day decline on Thursday. The index approached the closing low since December 5th that was set on Wednesday. Most major European country indexes fell on Friday, with the German, French, Italian, and Spanish indexes falling after rebounding on Thursday. In the UK, retail sales for December decreased by 3.2% compared to the previous month, marking the largest decline in nearly three years and raising concerns about a recession. This partially offset the impact of the Bank of England's cooling interest rate cut expectations, resulting in a slight increase in UK stocks after a three-day decline.

In terms of sectors, basic resources, which include mining stocks, fell nearly 1.5%, leading the decline, while industrials fell 0.9%. Swedish engineering group Sandvik, which is facing scrutiny from two US congressional committees over its business in China, fell 3.7%. On the other hand, the technology sector rose against the trend by 0.5%. Like their US counterparts, European chip stocks also performed well, with Dutch lithography giant ASML rising 1.5%.

The Stoxx 600 index fell more than 1% this week, following a slight rebound last week. Stock indexes in various countries all declined, with UK stocks falling for three consecutive weeks and Spanish stocks falling for two consecutive weeks, both by more than 2%. German and French stocks, which rebounded last week, fell again, while Italian stocks stopped their two-week rally. In terms of sectors, real estate, which is sensitive to interest rates, fell nearly 4.7%, followed closely by basic resources, which fell 4.5%. Oil and gas, which had the largest decline last week, fell for the second consecutive week by over 3%, while the technology sector rose by 2.5%.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached a one-month high during trading but later gave up some gains. The yields on 2-year German and US bonds rose more than 20 basis points in a week.

European government bond prices showed mixed performance, with short-term bond yields falling and yields rising. At the end of the bond market session, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 3.92%, roughly unchanged from Thursday. The yield on the 2-year UK bond closed at 4.29%, up about 2 basis points during the day. The yield on the 10-year German benchmark government bond closed at 2.34%, down about 1 basis point during the day, moving away from the six-week high reached on Thursday when it rose above 2.35%. The yield on the 2-year German bond closed at 2.73%, up about 5 basis points during the day, reaching a high since December 1st.

European bond yields rose across the board this week, reflecting the repeated suppression of market interest rate cut expectations by European Central Bank officials and faster-than-expected growth in UK CPI in December. JPMorgan Chase postponed its forecast for the start of the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts from June to September. The yield on 10-year UK government bonds has risen by about 13 basis points, while the yield on 10-year German bonds has risen by about 16 basis points, marking the fourth consecutive week of increase. Last week, the yields on 2-year UK and German bonds, which had fallen, rebounded, rising by approximately 15 and 22 basis points, respectively.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield briefly fell below 4.13% during European stock trading hours before rebounding. After a speech by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, it accelerated its upward trend. The US stock market reached nearly 4.20% in early trading, hitting a high not seen since the first day of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 13th. It rose by about 5 basis points during the day. However, it retraced some of its gains after the release of US consumer inflation expectations, closing at around 4.12% at the end of the bond market session, a decrease of 2 basis points during the day. After three consecutive days of increase, it has risen by a total of 18 basis points this week, offsetting the 11 basis point decline from last week.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell to a daily low of 4.34% during European stock trading hours. Before the release of US consumer inflation expectations, it reached nearly 4.42% in early US stock trading, hitting a high not seen since January 5th. It rose by nearly 7 basis points during the day but retraced some of its gains after the data was released. It briefly fell below 4.39% and closed at around 4.38% at the end of the bond market session, an increase of 3 basis points during the day. After a decline on Thursday, it rebounded. In this week, which only saw a decline on Thursday, it has risen by a total of 24 basis points, the same as the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, rebounding after falling last week, marking the second week of increase in the past six weeks.

The yields of US bonds of various maturities have risen this week, with the yield of ultra-long-term US bonds leading the way.

After the release of US inflation expectations data, the US dollar index hit a daily low, falling from a one-month high and continuing its upward trend for three consecutive weeks. The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies, has generally been in a downward trend. It briefly fell below 103.30 during European stock trading hours, falling by more than 0.2% during the day. In early US stock trading, it briefly rose above 103.546, hitting a daily high and experiencing a slight rebound. However, the decline continued to expand after the release of US consumer inflation expectations, falling below 103.30 at midday and falling by about 0.3% when the US stock market closed, falling from the high reached on Wednesday and continuing the high reached since December 13th.

By the time the US stock market closed on Friday, the US dollar index was below 103.30, falling by nearly 0.3% during the day and rising by over 0.8% this week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell by over 0.2%, falling from the high reached on December 12th. It has risen by nearly 0.9% this week, just like the US dollar index, which has risen for three consecutive weeks after a two-day pause. It has continued to rise in the first three weeks of 2024.

Despite the volatility and decline on Thursday and Friday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen this week. In non-US currencies, the Japanese yen hit a more than seven-week low during the session, although it rebounded afterwards. It has fallen for three consecutive weeks this week, with the USD/JPY rising to 148.80 in the Asian session, reaching its highest level since November 28th. It rose more than 0.4% during the day. European stocks fell before the market opened, while US stocks rose more than once during the session, roughly maintaining the same level as Thursday's closing. The EUR/USD rose above 1.0900 during the European session, up 0.3% during the day, breaking away from the low of 1.0850 on Wednesday, which was the lowest level since December 13th. The pound sterling rose above 1.2710 against the US dollar during the Asian session, but fell before the European market opened. US stocks fell below 1.2670 in early trading, hitting a daily low, and then continued to rise. At the close of US stocks, it was slightly higher than 1.2700, almost the same level as Thursday's period, but did not approach the low of 1.2600 on Wednesday, which was the lowest level since December 13th.

Offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar hit a daily low of 7.2179 in early Asian trading, but quickly rebounded and maintained its upward trend. Before the European market opened, it recovered to 7.20 and hit a daily high of 7.1965, rising 214 points from the low, but quickly fell back to 7.20. US stocks fell below 7.21 in early trading, and the increase expanded after the release of US consumer inflation expectations, continuing to move away from the low of 7.23 on Wednesday, which was the lowest level since November 17th. At 5:59 am Beijing time on January 20th, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.2036 yuan, up 125 points from the New York closing on Thursday, rebounding after two consecutive days of decline. It has fallen 143 points this week and has fallen for three consecutive weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded during Friday's session. US stocks fell below $40,400 during the midday session, hitting a low for more than a month. It fell more than $1,700 and more than 4% in the past 24 hours, but then continued to rise. It briefly rose above $42,000 at the end of the session, rising more than $1,800 from the low, up more than 4%. At the close of US stocks, it was above $41,700, up more than 1% in the past 24 hours, still far from the high of $49,000 reached on the first day of the listing of Bitcoin spot ETF last Thursday, the highest level since December 2021. It has fallen more than 4% in the past seven days.

Crude oil fell from a three-week high during the week, but still rose for the whole week. US natural gas fell more than 20% in a week.

International crude oil futures fell several times during Friday's session. When US stocks hit a daily high in early trading, US WTI crude oil rose above $74.90, up more than 1.1% during the day, and Brent crude oil rose above $79.70, up 0.8% during the day. However, they both failed to rise again after falling in the late morning session. When US oil hit a daily low at midday, it fell below $73.20, down 1.2% during the day, and Brent oil approached $78.30, down nearly 1% during the day. In the end, WTI February crude oil futures fell for two consecutive days, closing down $0.67, or 0.90%, at $73.41 per barrel. Brent March crude oil futures, which rebounded on Thursday, fell $0.54, or 0.68%, to $78.56 per barrel. Both WTI and Brent fell from the closing high on December 27th.

US oil rose about 1% this week, while Brent rose 0.34%. After a decline last week, they rebounded mainly due to the rise on Thursday, with US oil up more than 2% and Brent up nearly 1.6%. This week marks the sixth consecutive week of gains for crude oil since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

US gasoline and natural gas futures. NYMEX February gasoline futures, which rose for five consecutive days, fell 0.95% to $2.1628 per gallon, falling from the high of January 3rd for the fourth consecutive day this week. They rose 2% this week after falling for three consecutive weeks and rising for two consecutive weeks. NYMEX February natural gas futures fell 6.60% to $2.5190 per million British thermal units, hitting a low since December 20th, falling for four consecutive days. They fell about 24% this week, ending four consecutive weeks of gains and the momentum of rising more than 10% every week in the first two weeks of January.

LME ends seven consecutive gains, LME copper ends four consecutive declines, LME nickel hits a new two-year low, gold rebounds for several days but still records the largest weekly decline in six weeks

London base metal futures saw mixed performance on Friday. LME copper and LME lead rose for two consecutive days, respectively, breaking away from the lows of the past two months and one week. LME aluminum, which fell for two consecutive days, bid farewell to the lows of the past five weeks. LME nickel erased the gains from Thursday's rebound and closed below $16,100, hitting a new low since the end of March 2021. LME zinc fell slightly, falling for four consecutive days and hitting a low since mid-December. LME tin, which rose for seven consecutive trading days, fell from the high since the end of December.

Base metals had mixed performance this week as well. LME tin led the gains with a 2.7% increase, rising for two consecutive weeks. LME lead rose 0.7%, rising for three consecutive weeks. LME copper rose more than 0.1%, ending four consecutive weeks of declines. LME aluminum fell 2.4%, LME zinc fell nearly 2.1%, and LME nickel fell nearly 1.9%, all falling for three consecutive weeks.

New York gold futures continued to rise for two consecutive days, reaching a high of $2041.9 before the US stock market opened, with an increase of about 1% during the day, gradually reducing the gains. In the end, COMEX February gold futures rose 0.38% to $2029.3 per ounce, continuing to move away from the closing low since December 13th.

Gold futures rebounded on Thursday and Friday, but due to the consecutive declines of more than 1% on Tuesday and Wednesday, which were the largest declines since January 3rd, they fell 1.09% this week, falling after a slight rebound last week and recording the largest weekly decline since December 8th. In the 15 weeks since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, gold futures have fallen for three consecutive weeks. This week marks the second consecutive weekly decline in January, and the week ending December 8th also saw a decline. Before the US stock market opened, it rose to above $2039, hitting a new daily high. It continued to move away from the intraday low of $2002 on Wednesday, December 13th. It rose 0.8% during the day. In early trading, the US stock market fell to $2030, and at the close, it was below $2029, rising nearly 0.3% during the day. This week, like futures gold, it fell more than 1%.

Spot gold fell more than 1% this week, but rebounded in the second half of the week, stabilizing above $2000.