美聯儲議息會議筆記：縮表剎車，鐵頭鴿派

• 本次會議，美聯儲保持利率水平不變。
• 會議聲明中 直言通脹下降的過程 “缺乏進展”（a lack of further progress）。
• 聯儲將於今年 6 月起對縮表減速（QT Taper），美債的削減上限從 600 億/月降至 250 億/月，MBS 的削減規模不變。QT Taper 的規模處於一些投行預測區間的中位，未超預期。
• 在聯儲議息會議前公佈的財政部 TBAC 會議材料亦未超出市場預期。
• 鮑威爾依然在發佈會上試圖保持 “風險平衡”（亦即穩健中性）的姿態，以試圖避免排除降息的可能。

• 鮑威爾提出 “三條路”， 其中兩條路指向降息，雖然目前的那條路走向的是不降息， 但不能排除降息的可能性。

• 由於發佈會的問題指向範圍過於狹窄，鮑叔一度無語。整體觀感上，鮑威爾保持了今年 3 月會議上的寬鬆 bias， 感覺他就想一直鴿派熬到通脹真的下來為止， 不成功便成仁。
• 市場對鮑威爾的鴿派姿態非常買賬， 美債收益率跌，美股凌厲上漲。

聲明原文（粗體為關鍵變化）

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

最近的指標表明，經濟活動繼續以穩健的步伐擴張。就業增長依然強勁，失業率保持低位。通貨膨脹在過去一年中有所緩解，但仍處於高位。近幾個月來，在實現委員會 2% 的通脹目標方面缺乏進一步進展。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

委員會力求在長時期內實現充分就業和 2% 的通脹目標。委員會判斷，在過去一年中，實現就業目標和通脹目標的風險已趨於更好的平衡。經濟前景不明朗，委員會仍高度關注通脹風險。

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

為支持其目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率目標區間維持在 5.25%-5.5% 的區間不變。在考慮對聯邦基金利率目標區間進行任何調整時，委員會將仔細評估收到的數據、不斷變化的前景以及風險平衡。委員會預計，在對通脹率持續向 2% 邁進有更強的信心之前，不宜降息。此外，委員會將繼續減持國債、機構債務和機構抵押貸款支持證券。從 6 月份開始，委員會將把美國國債的每月贖回上限從 600 億美元降至 250 億美元，從而減緩其證券持有量的下降速度。委員會將把機構債務和機構抵押貸款支持證券的每月贖回上限維持在 350 億美元，並將把超過這一上限的任何本金支付再投資於國債。委員會堅定地致力於將通脹率恢復到 2% 的目標。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

在評估貨幣政策的適當立場時，委員會將繼續監測所收到的信息對經濟前景的影響。如果出現可能阻礙實現委員會目標的風險，委員會將準備酌情調整貨幣政策的立場。委員會的評估將考慮廣泛的信息，包括對勞動力市場狀況、通脹壓力和通脹預期以及金融和國際發展的解讀。

發佈會細節

開場點評經濟數據

Although gdp growth moderated from three point four percent in the fourth quarter of last year to one point six percent in the first quarter, private domestic final purchases which excludes inventory investment, government spending, and net exports.

雖然 GDP 增速不盡如人意，但可以體現潛在需求的剔除庫存投資、政府支出和淨出口的國內私人最終購買依然強勁增長 3.1%。

回答加息可能性的表述

I think it's unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I would say it's unlikely.

我認為下一次利率政策行動是加息的可能性不大。我認為不太可能。

回答降息問題以及 3 月時的 easing bias

And the balance of risks, as always.We think that policy is well positioned to address different paths that the economy might take.

And we've said that we don't think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy stance.Until we've gained greater confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably to 2%.

If we had a path where inflation proves more persistent than expected. And where the labor market remains strong. But inflation is moving sideways.And we're not gaining greater confidence.That would be a case in which it could be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts.

I think there are other paths that the economy could take. Which would cause us to want to consider rate cuts. Two of those paths would be that we do gain greater confidence, as we said. If inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%. Another path could be an unexpected weakening in the labor market, for example.

Those are paths in which you could see us cutting rates.

聯儲目前在風險平衡的姿態下需要考慮三條路：

第一條路：通脹持續高於政策目標，就業熱、經濟不着陸，那就無法獲得 “Greater Confidence”，即不降息。

但如果走出另外兩條道路，即就業市場走弱或通脹進展令人滿意，那就都可以降息。

鮑威爾的態度就是不能排除降息的可能性。但此後又表態對今年降息沒太大信心……

回答有關滯脹的問題

So I don't really understand where that's coming from.

我不懂，現在的數據哪裏和滯脹沾邊了？

作者：朱塵 Mikko，來源：智堡，原文標題：《美聯儲議息會議筆記：縮表剎車，鐵頭鴿派》