On June 5th, CITIC Securities held the 2024 Capital Market Forum in Shanghai.
Yang Fan, Chief Macro and Policy Analyst at CITIC Securities, stated that in the macroeconomic operation in the first half of this year, a very clear transition of old and new drivers was observed, with the manufacturing investment growth rate continuing to maintain a high level and industries related to exports performing well. Looking ahead, it is expected that policies will continue to focus on new drivers, with the investment structure of &#34;manufacturing &gt; infrastructure &gt; real estate&#34; being sustained.
Regarding the macroeconomy in the second half of the year, Yang Fan emphasized that the biggest feature of the economy is that new drivers have emerged and will become more stable. High-tech manufacturing industries such as computers, communications, electronics, shipbuilding, and automobile manufacturing are significant contributors to the economy.
On the consumption side, the slow recovery trend of household consumption remains unchanged, with both upgrading and downgrading of consumption coexisting. Per capita service consumption is on the rise, providing continuous highlights.
In terms of SOE reform, the SASAC may help improve market value management through encouraging listed companies to repurchase shares, increasing cash dividends, major shareholder holdings, and implementing equity incentives. In the medium term, there is significant space for SOE asset securitization, which can expand scale and enhance profitability through strategic mergers and acquisitions. In the long term, the continuous improvement of ROE and operational efficiency is crucial.
Regarding technological innovation, Yang Fan believes that supporting the development of new productive forces with technological system reform may be a key focus of reform. New productive forces have become a key concern at the policy level, with their scientific connotations and development ideas becoming increasingly clear. It is expected that multiple innovative fields will receive policy support, such as low-altitude economy, digital economy, and biopharmaceuticals

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It is expected that future policies will continue to focus on new drivers, and the investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry will remain at a relatively high level. High-tech manufacturing industries such as computers, communications, electronics, shipbuilding, and automobile manufacturing are significant contributors to the economy. In terms of consumption, the slow recovery trend in household consumption remains unchanged, with per capita service consumption on the rise. In terms of SOE reform, SASAC is helping to improve market value management by encouraging listed companies to repurchase shares, increase cash dividends, and have major shareholders increase their holdings. In terms of technological innovation, new productive forces are supported by reforms in the technology system, and it is expected that innovative areas such as the low-altitude economy, digital economy, and biopharmaceuticals will receive policy support