Zhitong
2024.07.09 06:23
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Tonight's big show is on! Will Tesla face a "Nine Yang Big Reversal" or return to the "Seven Giants" of the US stock market?

Tesla's stock price rose by 30% after better-than-expected delivery numbers in the second quarter, with a cumulative increase of 3% so far this year, reversing the previous downward trend. Tesla's AI supercomputing system and fully autonomous driving system FSD have brought optimistic revenue expectations, and the upcoming Robotaxi is also important for the company. Compared to other tech giants, Tesla's stock performance has been relatively lackluster. Tesla's stock price plummeted to a low point in April this year, but analysts believe that its rebound may not last long

According to Zhitong Finance APP, earlier this year, Tesla (TSLA.US) performed poorly in the stock market, causing it to fall behind in the "Big Seven" of the US stock market and sparking discussions on whether the stock should be removed from the "Big Seven" list. However, Tesla seems to be making a comeback. Since Tesla announced better-than-expected second-quarter delivery numbers, the stock has risen by 30%. As of Monday's close, Tesla's stock price has achieved nine consecutive gains. This has finally led the stock to accumulate a 3% increase year-to-date, reversing the previous sharp decline.

Tesla's management team led by CEO Elon Musk has always emphasized the popularity of the FSD (Full Self-Driving) system built on Tesla's AI supercomputing system, the optimistic revenue expectations brought by FSD, and the importance of the upcoming Robotaxi based on the upgraded latest FSD technology for the company. This has been a significant catalyst to boost Tesla's lackluster stock price performance since the beginning of the year.

Compared to members of the "Big Seven" such as Microsoft (MSFT.US), Meta (META.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and Apple (AAPL.US), Tesla's stock performance still lags behind by a lot. These large tech companies have all hitched a ride on the AI boom, with investors cheering for their progress in AI chips, chatbots, and other tools. For example, NVIDIA's stock price has risen by nearly 160% year-to-date; and Apple, which fell behind at the beginning of the year like Tesla, has also seen a significant increase in its stock price since the launch of Apple Intelligence last month.

Tesla's stock price plummeted to around $139 in April this year. However, during Monday's trading session, the stock price rose to around $255 at one point. Nevertheless, some analysts believe that Tesla's rebound may not last long. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi is cautious about Tesla's stock. He pointed out that although Tesla's second-quarter delivery volume exceeded expectations, it still decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year. He said, "We may continue to see some rebound in Tesla's stock. But frankly, it's like meme stocks, where valuation is disconnected from fundamentals."

At the same time, the electric vehicle market still faces uncertainties. The electric vehicle industry benefits from generous tax incentives. However, the industry also faces significant obstacles such as tariff wars and identity politics, with some consumers refusing to see electric vehicles as a "woke" mode of transportation. In the United States, Republican presidential candidate Trump has stated that if he is re-elected as president after the November election, he will abolish the existing "crazy" laws supporting electric vehicles In addition, there seems to be a lot of chaos within Tesla. In April this year, Musk told employees to prepare for large-scale layoffs, with sales positions also being affected. As Tesla's first new consumer model launched in years, Cybertruck's sales growth has been slow. For this reason, some hedge fund managers have decided to ban investment in Tesla stocks. Fabio Pecce, Chief Investment Officer of Ambienta, said Tesla is "difficult for us to position"