Traders are working hard to cope with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve interest rates, the upcoming earnings of tech giants, and now they must further weigh how Harris or other candidates will counter Trump. With four months left until the election, there are too many unknowns, and the US stock market may face a "turbulent summer"
As the curtain rises on the US stock earnings week, Biden suddenly announced his withdrawal from the re-election campaign, changing the landscape of the US election and adding new uncertainties to the financial markets.
According to CCTV News on Monday, current President Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election and recommended Vice President Harris as the Democratic candidate to compete against Trump.
Currently, traders are working hard to deal with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve interest rates, the upcoming earnings of tech giants, and now they must further weigh how Harris or other candidates will compete against Trump. With four months left until the election, there are too many unknowns, and traders are preparing for a "turbulent summer."
This decision has completely disrupted the original expectations of the election, and investors are weighing the potential impact of this change on the market. Some analysts believe that "Trump trades" will begin to unwind, and are optimistic about the performance of emerging market assets.
Market Reacts Calmly at Present
The Asian market opened "calmly," with S&P 500 index futures up nearly 0.4%, "key political indicator" Bitcoin slightly down, and the US dollar exchange rate remaining stable.
Overall, the market's immediate reaction to this political upheaval is relatively calm. Earlier, after performing poorly in the first televised debate, the market had expected Biden to withdraw, and then Biden was hit by a series of setbacks, including testing positive for COVID-19, senior party leaders and donors urging him to withdraw.
This political turmoil comes on the eve of earnings releases this week, with large tech stocks like Alphabet and Tesla set to report.
Last week, the S&P 500 index fell by 2%, with investors increasing bets that tech stocks would lose their dominance, benefiting smaller companies. The Russell 2000 index rose for the second consecutive week, and the rotation between tech stocks and small-cap stocks continues.
Some industries are more sensitive to political changes, and when trading resumes on Monday, investors concerned about political impact may focus on cryptocurrencies, private prison operators, fossil fuel-related companies, as well as other areas of interest such as heavily regulated industries like finance and healthcare, and gun manufacturers.
US Stock Market Faces a "Turbulent Summer"
Biden's withdrawal from the race has brought significant changes to the US political scene and added new uncertainties to the financial markets. Investors are closely monitoring the development of the political situation to assess the potential market impact of different candidates' policy positions. In the coming months, the market may experience significant volatility due to political factors.
Gene Munster, co-founder of Deepwater Asset Management, said:
This means there will be more uncertainty in the short term. Previously, the market had great confidence in Trump's victory, but now faces new unknown factors. The market does not like this kind of uncertainty, as well as news about who will be elected, who will drop out, and all these unknowns.
Dan Suzuki, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Richard Bernstein, said:
The direct impact is that it adds uncertainty to the claim that the Republicans will sweep the market. In addition, everything remains unknown until the Democratic candidate becomes clearerStrategist Matt Maley Miller believes:
"Trump trades" such as Bitcoin and energy will start unwinding, and trades impacted like solar stocks or electric vehicles may bounce back. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty, which the market does not like. We will see a significant surge in volatility from now until September.
Global investment manager Jack McIntyre from Brandywine Global stated:
The initial reaction for risk assets, including emerging markets, will be positive. If everything goes smoothly, the Democrats could now take the House, which the market generally hopes to see more of, rather than a Republican sweep.
Investment manager Jennifer Gorgoll from Neuberger Berman LLC believes:
In the short term, expectations of Fed rate cuts will dominate the market, potentially weakening the US dollar and leading to strength in commodities and emerging market currencies.
This, coupled with broader risk appetite related to "Trump trades," could lead to astonishing growth in 2025, with emerging markets likely being the major beneficiaries