National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: CPI continues to rise in August, while PPI has declined slightly

According to the financial news app Zhitong Finance, on September 9th, Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for August 2024. In August, affected by factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall, the national CPI rose seasonally compared to the previous month, with the year-on-year increase continuing to expand. From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In August, influenced by factors such as insufficient market demand and the decline in prices of some international commodities, both the month-on-month and year-on-year PPI in the country decreased. From a month-on-month perspective, the PPI fell by 0.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. From a year-on-year perspective, the PPI fell by 1.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month.

Original Text:

CPI Continues to Rise in August 2024, PPI Slightly Decreases

- Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, Interprets the CPI and PPI Data for August 2024

The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data for August 2024 today. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation.

I. CPI Continues to Rise Month-on-Month, Year-on-Year Increase Expands Slightly

In August, affected by factors such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall, the national CPI rose seasonally compared to the previous month, with the year-on-year increase continuing to expand.

From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI rose by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose by 3.4%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the month-on-month CPI increase by approximately 0.60 percentage points. In terms of food, influenced by factors such as high summer temperatures and locally heavy rainfall, the prices of fresh vegetables, mushrooms, fruits, and eggs rose by 18.1%, 9.8%, 3.8%, and 3.3% respectively, collectively affecting the month-on-month CPI increase by approximately 0.49 percentage points; with the reduction of pig production capacity and bullish price expectations, pork prices rose by 7.3%, affecting the month-on-month CPI increase by approximately 0.10 percentage points. Non-food prices changed from a 0.4% increase last month to a 0.3% decrease, affecting a month-on-month CPI decrease of approximately 0.24 percentage points. In terms of non-food items, influenced by fluctuations in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices fell by 3.0%; with the decline in back-to-school travel demand, airfare and tourism prices decreased seasonally by 5.1% and 0.7% respectively.

From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices changed from being flat last month to a 2.8% increase, affecting the year-on-year CPI increase by approximately 0.51 percentage points. In terms of food, vegetable prices rose by 21.8%, an increase of 18.5 percentage points from the previous month; fruit prices changed from a 4.2% decrease last month to a 4.1% increase; pork prices rose by 16.1%, influenced by a higher base in the same period last year, with a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month; egg, edible oil, beef, lamb, and potato prices decreased between 4.0% and 14.5%. Non-food prices rose by 0.2%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the year-on-year CPI increase by approximately 0.13 percentage points. In terms of non-food items, industrial consumer goods prices changed from a 0.7% increase last month to a 0.4% decrease, with gasoline prices changing from a 5.3% increase last month to a 2.7% decrease; The price of gasoline cars decreased by 6.4%, with a slightly expanded decline; prices of daily household items, indoor decorations, and Chinese medicinal materials increased between 1.1% and 6.9%, with a decrease in the rate of increase. Service prices rose by 0.5%, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points, among which medical services, educational services, and household services prices increased by 1.9%, 1.7%, and 1.6% respectively; airplane tickets and hotel accommodation prices decreased by 11.9% and 3.6% respectively.

According to calculations, in the 0.6% year-on-year change in CPI in August, the tail effect was approximately -0.3 percentage points, compared to 0 last month; the new impact of price changes this year is approximately 0.9 percentage points, compared to 0.5 percentage points last month.

II. PPI Decreased on a Month-on-Month and Year-on-Year Basis

In August, affected by factors such as insufficient market demand and the downward trend of some international commodity prices, the national PPI decreased both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis.

On a month-on-month basis, the PPI decreased by 0.7%, expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the prices of production materials decreased by 1.0%, with a 0.7 percentage point expansion in the decline; the prices of living materials remained flat for two consecutive months. The decline in prices in energy-intensive industries was the main reason for the month-on-month decrease in PPI, with prices in black metal smelting and processing industry decreasing by 4.4%, non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry prices decreasing by 2.3%, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry prices decreasing by 2.0%, chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing industry prices decreasing by 0.9%, and non-metallic mineral products industry prices decreasing by 0.7%. Prices in coal mining and washing industry decreased by 1.2%. Prices in some technology-intensive industries increased, with aircraft manufacturing prices rising by 2.1%, industrial robot manufacturing prices rising by 0.8%, and computer manufacturing prices rising by 0.4%. In consumer goods manufacturing, prices in cultural, educational, sports, and entertainment goods manufacturing industry and agricultural and sideline food processing industry decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively; prices in textile, clothing, and apparel industry remained flat.

On a year-on-year basis, the PPI decreased by 1.8%, expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the prices of production materials decreased by 2.0%, with a 1.3 percentage point expansion in the decline; the prices of living materials decreased by 1.1%, with a 0.1 percentage point expansion in the decline. In major industries, prices in black metal smelting and processing industry decreased by 8.0%, non-metallic mineral products industry prices decreased by 5.1%, agricultural and sideline food processing industry prices decreased by 4.0%, petroleum and natural gas extraction industry prices decreased by 3.3%, petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry prices decreased by 3.0%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry prices decreased by 3.0%, automobile manufacturing industry prices decreased by 2.2%, chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing industry prices decreased by 1.2%. The combined impact of these 8 industries mentioned above led to a year-on-year decrease in PPI of approximately 1.47 percentage points, expanding the downward effect on PPI by 0.74 percentage points compared to the previous month. Prices in non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry increased by 7.6%, prices in cultural, educational, sports, and entertainment goods manufacturing industry increased by 4.9%, prices in chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 0.8%, and prices in railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry increased by 0.6%.

According to calculations, in the -1.8% year-on-year change in PPI in August, the tail effect was approximately -0.1 percentage points, compared to 0.1 percentage points last month; the new impact of price changes this year is approximately -1.7 percentage points, compared to -0.9 percentage points last month This article is selected from the National Bureau of Statistics, edited by Zhìtōng Finance: Chen Wenfang.