The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England take the stage one after another, creating two explosive news within 24 hours?

JIN10
2024.09.18 14:20
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The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are about to announce their monetary policy decisions. The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time, while the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining interest rates has increased. Despite overall inflation in the UK being close to target, service sector inflation remains high, leading economists to believe that the Federal Reserve's rate cut will not significantly impact the Bank of England's decision

As traders prepare for the dual impact of the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, economists say that even if the former chooses to cut rates significantly, it will not prevent the latter from maintaining rates this week.

The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points from the current range of 5.25% to 5.50% with a probability of over 60% this week. This would be the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in over four years.

Meanwhile, the pricing in the money markets for a rate cut by the Bank of England at Thursday's meeting decreased from 35% on Tuesday evening to 26% on Wednesday morning, but still slightly higher than last week. Prior to this, the UK's August CPI remained at 2.2% as expected, unchanged from July, supporting the need for caution by the Bank of England.

Although overall inflation in the UK has been at or near the Bank's 2% target for five months, inflation in the services sector, which accounts for 81% of the UK economy, remains high, rising from 5.2% in July to 5.6% in August.

The drop in energy prices has driven overall inflation down, while the core inflation rate (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) has decreased at a slower pace.

Overall inflation in the UK is close to target, but services sector inflation remains high

Sanjay Raja, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, told CNBC that a more "forceful" rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not necessarily change the Bank of England's decision this week, especially since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) typically approves its decision around lunchtime on Wednesday in London, before announcing it on Thursday. The Federal Reserve's policy announcement is only made public at 7 pm London time on Wednesday.

However, Raja added, "This may influence the MPC's risk management considerations, including opening the door to discussions on the dual risks of inflation/growth facing the economy, and may even encourage some MPC members to discuss more rapid tightening of restrictive policies."

George Lazarias, Chief Economist at Forvis Mazars, told CNBC on Wednesday that in developed economies, "services sector inflation is rising, and the decrease in overall inflation is mainly due to external factors."

Lazarias explained, "This means it is still too early for both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve to make significant rate cuts." Therefore, he does not believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 basis points this week, nor does he believe that the Bank of England will cut rates, even to boost sluggish economic growth.

Furthermore, he pointed out that cutting rates too quickly and too deeply may force central banks around the world to raise rates next year, damaging their credibility and anchoring inflation expectations. Lazarias believes that the expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut is based on bond market positions and does not reflect the views of most strategists He said, "The Fed (rate cut) may have come too late, but it sets the tone for the future path."

The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its August meeting, initiating a loose monetary policy, but the MPC's division has led market participants to doubt whether they decided to cut rates until the last minute. At that time, the MPC supported the rate cut by a majority vote of 5:4, with the camp taking a cautious stance citing concerns about the labor market and the service sector.

Consulting firm Capital Economics stated that Wednesday's CPI data reinforced expectations that the Bank of England will hold steady in September and point to a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting in November. It added that downward pressure on food and fuel prices was offset by increases in household equipment, entertainment, culture, and airfare prices