Guotai Junan Securities: Entering Q4, the traditional peak season for automobiles, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to continue to grow

According to the information obtained from the Wise Finance APP, Guotai Junan Securities published a research report stating that with the continuous adjustment of economic expectations and entering the traditional peak season for automobiles in Q4, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to continue to grow. In September, the wholesale, retail, and export sales of new energy passenger vehicles all increased month-on-month and year-on-year. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased by 16.4% year-on-year. Sales of pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range models all saw month-on-month and year-on-year growth in September. Q4 is usually the peak season for automobile production and sales, coupled with strong support for automobile consumption from central and local policies, enhancing consumer confidence, and the car purchase demand in Q4 2024 is expected to continue to be released.

In September, the wholesale, retail, and export sales of new energy passenger vehicles all increased month-on-month and year-on-year. In September, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.231 million units, an increase of +48.1% year-on-year and +17.2% month-on-month. From January to September 2024, a total of 7.901 million units were wholesaled, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of +33.7%. In September, the retail market for new energy passenger vehicles sold 1.123 million units, an increase of +50.9% year-on-year and +9.6% month-on-month. From January to September 2024, a total of 7.132 million units were retailed, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of +37.4%. In September, the export of new energy passenger vehicles reached 105,000 units, an increase of +19.3% year-on-year and +6.0% month-on-month. From January to September 2024, a total of 968,000 units were exported, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of +30.2%.

The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased by 16.4% year-on-year. In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market reached 53.3%, an increase of +16.4% year-on-year, with the independent brand passenger vehicle new energy penetration rate reaching 74.9%. In September, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in the domestic market was 49.1%, an increase of +15.0% year-on-year, with the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles reaching 64%.

Sales of pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended-range models all saw month-on-month and year-on-year growth in September. In September, the wholesale sales of pure electric passenger vehicles reached 723,000 units, an increase of +27.1% year-on-year and +22.5% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of PHEV passenger vehicles reached 394,000 units, an increase of +102.2% year-on-year and +12.3% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of extended-range passenger vehicles reached 114,000 units, an increase of +68.4% year-on-year and +4.5% month-on-month. In September, there were 21 manufacturers with wholesale sales exceeding 10,000 units, an increase of 3 compared to the same period last year and an increase of 2 compared to the previous month. Q4 is usually the peak season for automobile production and sales, coupled with strong support for automobile consumption from central and local policies, the car purchase demand in Q4 2024 is expected to continue to be released.

Risk Warning: Risks include intensified price wars affecting profitability and policy stimulus effects falling short of expectations