China's October CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year, while the PPI year-on-year decline expanded to 2.9%

In October, the overall operation of the consumer market remained stable, with food prices retreating from high levels, coupled with a decline in gasoline prices, resulting in a month-on-month decrease in the national CPI and a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. International commodity prices generally fluctuated downward, but driven by the effective implementation of a package of incremental policies, the demand for some domestic industrial products recovered, leading to a significant narrowing of the month-on-month decline in PPI, while the year-on-year decline slightly expanded.

On November 9, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the national CPI in October rose by 0.3% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 0.4%; it decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with the month-on-month decline slightly widening compared to the previous value. From January to October, the average national consumer price increased by 0.3% compared to the same period last year.

The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, slightly rebounded in October, rising by 0.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month.

In October, the national PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, deepening from the previous value of -2.8%, and decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, significantly narrowing from the previous value of -0.6%; the purchase prices for industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year-on-year and by 0.3% month-on-month. From January to October, the average producer prices for industrial producers and purchase prices both decreased by 2.1% compared to the same period last year.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated:

In the year-on-year change of 0.3% in CPI for October, the carryover effect was about -0.4 percentage points, while the new impact of price changes this year was about 0.7 percentage points.

In the year-on-year change of -2.9% in PPI for October, the carryover effect was about -0.5 percentage points, while the new impact of price changes this year was about -2.4 percentage points.

Month-on-month decline in CPI, year-on-year increase slightly recedes

In October 2024, the national consumer price increased by 0.3% year-on-year. Among them, urban areas rose by 0.2%, and rural areas rose by 0.3%; food prices increased by 2.9%, while non-food prices decreased by 0.3%; consumer goods prices rose by 0.2%, and service prices rose by 0.4%. From January to October, the average national consumer price increased by 0.3% compared to the same period last year.

In October, the national consumer price decreased by 0.3% month-on-month. Among them, urban areas decreased by 0.3%, and rural areas decreased by 0.3%; food prices decreased by 1.2%, while non-food prices remained stable; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.4%, and service prices remained stable.

Year-on-year, among food items, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, and fresh fruits increased by 21.6%, 14.2%, and 4.7%, respectively, with all increases receding; the price declines for beef, lamb, cooking oil, and eggs ranged between 2.7% and 13.4%. Prices in the other seven categories increased five and decreased two year-on-year:**

In October, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol increased by 2.0% year-on-year, affecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by approximately 0.56 percentage points. Among food items, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 21.6%, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.44 percentage points; the price of fresh fruits increased by 4.7%, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.10 percentage points; the price of meat increased by 2.8%, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.08 percentage points, with pork prices increasing by 14.2%, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.18 percentage points; the price of aquatic products increased by 1.4%, affecting the CPI increase by approximately 0.03 percentage points; egg prices decreased by 2.5%, affecting the CPI decrease by approximately 0.02 percentage points; and grain prices decreased by 0.7%, affecting the CPI decrease by approximately 0.01 percentage points.

In the other seven categories, five prices increased and two decreased year-on-year. Among them, the prices of other goods and services, clothing, and healthcare increased by 4.7%, 1.1%, and 1.1%, respectively, while the prices of education, culture, entertainment, and daily necessities and services increased by 0.8% and 0.1%, respectively; transportation and communication, and housing prices decreased by 4.8% and 0.1%, respectively.

Chief Statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, Dong Lijuan, stated:

Year-on-year, the CPI increased by 0.3%, with the growth rate falling by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. Among them, food prices increased by 2.9%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points compared to last month. In food, the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, and fresh fruits increased by 21.6%, 14.2%, and 4.7%, respectively, with all growth rates declining; the price declines for beef, lamb, cooking oil, and eggs ranged from 2.7% to 13.4%.

Non-food prices decreased by 0.3%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. Among non-food items, energy prices decreased by 5.1%, with the decline expanding by 1.6 percentage points compared to last month, with gasoline prices decreasing by 10.7%. Excluding energy, the prices of industrial consumer goods decreased by 0.2%, with the decline remaining the same as last month, among which the prices of new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles decreased by 6.6% and 6.1%, respectively.

Service prices increased by 0.4%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month, among which the rental prices of transportation tools increased by 3.2%, and the decline in tourism prices narrowed to 0.4%; the prices of medical services and educational services increased by 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively.

Month-on-month, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.8%, while the other seven categories saw three increases, three stable, and one decrease:

In October, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol decreased by 0.8% month-on-month, affecting the CPI decrease by approximately 0.22 percentage points. Among food items, the price of fresh vegetables decreased by 3.0%, affecting the CPI decrease by approximately 0.08 percentage points; the price of meat decreased by 2.0%, affecting the CPI decrease by approximately 0.06 percentage points, with pork prices decreasing by 3.7%, affecting the CPI decrease by approximately 0.06 percentage points; the price of aquatic products decreased by 2.0%, affecting the CPI decrease by approximately 0.04 percentage points; Egg prices fell by 2.0%, contributing to a decrease in the CPI of approximately 0.01 percentage points; fresh fruit prices fell by 1.0%, contributing to a decrease in the CPI of approximately 0.02 percentage points.

The prices of the other seven major categories showed three increases, three unchanged, and one decrease month-on-month. Among them, the prices of other goods and services, education, culture and entertainment, and daily necessities rose by 1.1%, 0.2%, and 0.1%, respectively; clothing, housing, and healthcare prices remained unchanged; transportation and communication prices fell by 0.7%.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated:

Month-on-month, the CPI fell by 0.3%, compared to being unchanged last month. Among them, food prices changed from an increase of 0.8% last month to a decrease of 1.2%, which is below the average level for the same period in the past decade and is the main factor affecting the month-on-month decline in the CPI.

In terms of food, favorable weather conditions benefited the production and storage of fresh food, combined with previous price increases due to extreme weather and other factors. The prices of pork, fresh vegetables, aquatic products, and fresh fruits fell by 3.7%, 3.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0%, respectively, contributing to a month-on-month decrease in the CPI of approximately 0.20 percentage points, accounting for about 70% of the total CPI decline.

Non-food prices changed from a decrease of 0.2% last month to being unchanged. Among non-food items, influenced by fluctuations in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices were raised twice this month, but the increase was small, and the average price for the month still fell by 1.5% compared to last month, contributing to a month-on-month decrease in the CPI of approximately 0.05 percentage points, accounting for about 20% of the total CPI decline; influenced by rising international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices rose by 4.2%; during the National Day holiday, the demand for travel increased, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.1% and 1.3%, respectively, but due to the reduction in fuel surcharges and a rapid decrease in post-holiday travel, airplane ticket prices fell by 5.6%.

PPI Month-on-Month Decline Significantly Narrowed, Year-on-Year Decline Slightly Expanded

In October 2024, the national industrial producer price fell by 2.9% year-on-year, and the industrial producer purchase price fell by 2.7% year-on-year. The industrial producer price fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and the industrial producer purchase price fell by 0.3% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to last month. From January to October, on average, both the industrial producer price and purchase price fell by 2.1% compared to the same period last year.

The year-on-year changes in industrial producer prices in October are as follows:

Among industrial producer prices, the price of production materials fell by 3.3%, contributing to a total level decline in industrial producer prices of approximately 2.45 percentage points. Among them, the mining industry price fell by 5.1%, raw materials industry price fell by 4.0%, and processing industry price fell by 2.9%. The price of living materials fell by 1.6%, contributing to a total level decline in industrial producer prices of approximately 0.41 percentage points. Among them, food prices fell by 1.6%, clothing prices fell by 0.4%, general daily necessities prices rose by 0.1%, and durable consumer goods prices fell by 3.1%

In the industrial producer purchase prices, the price of black metal materials decreased by 6.9%, the price of fuel and power decreased by 6.2%, the price of chemical raw materials decreased by 5.3%, the price of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 4.5%, the price of building materials and non-metallic materials decreased by 4.1%, and the price of textile raw materials decreased by 1.9%; the price of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 9.3%.

Changes in industrial producer prices in October:

In the industrial producer ex-factory prices, the price of production materials increased by 0.1%, contributing to an increase of about 0.04 percentage points in the overall level of industrial producer ex-factory prices. Among them, the price in the mining industry decreased by 0.3%, the price in the raw materials industry decreased by 0.4%, and the price in the processing industry increased by 0.3%. The price of living materials decreased by 0.4%, contributing to a decrease of about 0.09 percentage points in the overall level of industrial producer ex-factory prices. Among them, food prices decreased by 0.3%, clothing prices remained flat, general daily necessities prices increased by 0.3%, and durable consumer goods prices decreased by 1.1%.

In the industrial producer purchase prices, the price of agricultural and sideline products decreased by 1.4%, the price of chemical raw materials decreased by 1.1%, the price of fuel and power decreased by 0.8%, the price of building materials and non-metallic materials decreased by 0.2%, and the price of textile raw materials decreased by 0.1%; the price of non-ferrous metal materials and wires increased by 1.5%, and the price of black metal materials increased by 0.1%.

Interpretation by the National Bureau of Statistics:

In October, the international bulk commodity prices generally fluctuated downward, but driven by the effective implementation of a package of incremental policies, the domestic demand for some industrial products recovered, and the month-on-month decline in PPI significantly narrowed, while the year-on-year decline slightly expanded. In the future, as the effects of policies continue to manifest, prices are expected to stabilize further.

On a month-on-month basis, PPI decreased by 0.1%, a decrease that narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to last month, marking two consecutive months of narrowing. Among them, the price of production materials changed from a decrease of 0.8% last month to an increase of 0.1%; the price of living materials decreased by 0.4%, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points. The effective implementation of a package of incremental policies to expand domestic demand has improved construction demand, leading to a halt in the decline and a rebound in prices of steel, cement, etc. The price in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 3.4% after four consecutive months of decline, and the price in the non-metallic mineral products industry increased by 0.4% after three consecutive months of decline. The demand for coal in some non-electric industries and for heating in northern regions increased, leading to a change in the price of coal mining and washing from a decrease of 1.3% last month to an increase of 0.1%. The price in the automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 0.9%, with the price of gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing decreasing by 1.9%, while the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing turned to an increase of 0.6% after 12 consecutive months of decline

From a year-on-year perspective, the PPI decreased by 2.9%, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. Among them, the price of production materials fell by 3.3%, with the decline remaining the same as last month; the price of living materials decreased by 1.6%, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points. In the main industries surveyed, the price declines that expanded include: the oil and natural gas extraction industry decreased by 14.6%, expanding by 4.5 percentage points; the oil, coal, and other fuel processing industry decreased by 13.9%, expanding by 4.5 percentage points; the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 5.6%, expanding by 3.0 percentage points; the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 5.6%, expanding by 1.5 percentage points; the agricultural and sideline food processing industry decreased by 5.0%, expanding by 0.1 percentage points; the automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 3.1%, expanding by 0.8 percentage points.