Is it expected to capture 1/3 of the custom AI chip market? How does "chip junior" Marvell Tech surpass Intel in market value?
Marvell Tech's market value has surpassed Intel, reaching USD 100 billion, primarily due to its breakthroughs in the data center chip sector and deep collaborations with tech giants. The company expects that by fiscal year 2024, its data center business will account for 72% of total revenue. Analysts predict that Marvell has the potential to capture one-third of the custom AI chip market by 2030, with annual revenue expected to exceed USD 8 billion. However, Marvell also faces risks associated with its reliance on the AI investment boom; if the market does not develop as anticipated, it could impact performance
Seizing the wave of artificial intelligence, the former "chip underling" Marvell reached a market value of $100 billion last week, surpassing the veteran chip giant Intel.
On Monday, according to media reports, Marvell's rise stems from its breakthroughs in the data center chip sector, as CEO Matt Murphy has shifted the company's strategic focus towards customizing AI chips for tech giants since taking office in 2016.
This decision has allowed Marvell to seize opportunities in the AI wave, resulting in rapid growth in both revenue and valuation.
Data shows that in the recently concluded fiscal quarter, Marvell's data center business grew nearly twofold year-on-year, reaching $1.1 billion. The company expects that by the end of January 2024, the data center business will account for 72% of total revenue, significantly higher than the previous fiscal year's 40%. Analysts predict that by fiscal year 2026, Marvell's annual revenue is expected to exceed $8 billion, a 40% increase from the current fiscal year.
The key to Marvell's success lies in its deep collaboration with tech giants. The company recently signed a five-year cooperation agreement with Amazon to help design its own AI chips. Industry insiders believe this will boost Marvell's AI custom chip business to achieve double growth in the next fiscal year. Additionally, the company is expected to provide AI custom chip services to other tech giants like Microsoft.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis stated in a report to clients last week:
By 2030, sales in the custom AI chip industry are expected to reach $30 billion to $50 billion, and Marvell has the potential to capture one-third of this market.
Despite the bright prospects, Marvell also faces risks. The company is currently highly dependent on the AI investment boom, and if AI services do not proliferate as expected, or if tech giants delay spending, it could impact Marvell's performance. Currently, the company's stock price-to-earnings ratio is close to 45 times, which is 21% higher than Nvidia, indicating that investors have high growth expectations.
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