This year's strongest commodities: cocoa, orange juice, coffee beans

As 2024 draws to a close, the upward trend in global agricultural product prices shows almost no signs of weakening. Among them, cocoa has seen an increase of nearly twofold, making it the "most eye-catching" commodity in this year's market, followed closely by orange juice and coffee beans. However, the significant rise in these agricultural product prices also highlights the persistence of food price inflation.

West Africa is home to the world's largest cocoa farms, which have been affected by crop diseases and adverse weather conditions, leading to a global supply tightening that has caused cocoa bean prices to soar to historic highs.

Last week, Goldman Sachs analysts advised clients to "go long" on cocoa. Goldman Sachs expects cocoa prices to rise again due to structural supply shortages, insufficient consumer hedging, and historically low warehouse inventories.

Supply concerns have significantly pushed up New York cocoa futures prices, which approached $13,000 per ton last week. This surge has driven cocoa prices up nearly 200% this year, making it the "strongest commodity."

On the other hand, orange juice prices continue to rise due to a sharp decline in citrus production in Florida. Year-to-date, New York orange juice futures prices have surged by 73%. Meanwhile, New York Arabica coffee futures have also risen by 72% amid ongoing concerns about global supply tightening, reaching historic highs.

It is worth noting that not long ago, retail egg prices and beef prices also hit new highs. According to the Food Price Index from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the accelerating rise in global food prices this year is concerning, as this index tracks international price changes of food commodities in global trade.

Analysts point out that current food price inflation has "entered a very dangerous territory," and it is expected that the momentum driving food prices up will further accelerate in 2025.