CICC: In 2025, U.S. assets are not lacking, while Chinese assets will still be primarily structural
CICC analysis believes that U.S. assets will perform well in 2025, while Chinese assets will still be dominated by structural characteristics. The U.S. credit cycle is gently restarting, and the macro pillars formed in the past few years will continue to drive growth and the market. If Trump's policies are further strengthened, it may widen the gap between the U.S. and other markets, and attention should be paid to the upward risks it brings
Under the baseline scenario, from the perspective of the credit cycle framework, we believe that the U.S. credit cycle is gently restarting, while the Chinese credit cycle may no longer contract. It is also important to note that the three "macro pillars" that have formed in the U.S. over the past few years—namely, large fiscal spending, technological trends, and global capital rebalancing—provide continuous momentum for growth and the market. If Trump's policies further strengthen these pillars, it could reinforce or even widen the gap between the U.S. and other markets, similar to the "Reagan cycle" in the first half of the 1980s, which brings upward risks that deserve attention. (CICC)
