Bankruptcy wave, layoff wave... Will Germany face its longest economic crisis since World War II?
According to the HRI report, Germany may experience economic recession for the third consecutive year in 2025. Analysts believe that the German economy is in the midst of the largest crisis since the post-war period, with the pandemic, energy crisis, and inflation making Germans, on average, poorer
"War machine" has turned into "broken vehicle"? The German economy is undergoing the most severe test since World War II.
According to a report from the Handelsblatt Research Institute (HRI) cited by the Mandiner news portal, Germany may face its third consecutive year of economic recession in 2025, which would mean the longest economic crisis since World War II.
As the largest economy in the European Union, Germany's economy is expected to shrink by 0.1% this year, with contractions of 0.3% in both 2023 and 2024. HRI Chief Economist Bert Rürup stated:
"The German economy is in the midst of the largest crisis in post-war history. The pandemic, energy crisis, and inflation have made Germans, on average, poorer."
Is the longest recession since World War II about to come?
The German central bank also lowered its growth forecast for 2025 in December, revising it down from 1.1% predicted in June to 0.2%. According to surveys, the biggest concern for German citizens ahead of the upcoming elections on February 23 is the economy.
According to data from credit agency Creditreform, the number of corporate bankruptcies in 2024 is expected to increase by nearly a quarter compared to 2023, totaling 22,400 bankruptcies, the highest number since 2015. The number of consumer bankruptcies also rose by 8.5%, reaching over 72,000.
Credit insurance company Allianz Trade predicts that the number of bankruptcies will further increase in 2025, including more consumer bankruptcies.
Sentiment in industrial sectors such as manufacturing is particularly low. The number of people holding a pessimistic view for 2025 is nearly double that of optimists. In December, the Ifo Business Climate Index continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since May 2020.
Almost every week, industrial groups announce layoffs, and the slowdown in investment means further job reductions. The manufacturing and construction sectors are hit the hardest.
Although the HRI report shows a slight increase in employment last year, reaching 46.1 million, the agency now expects a monthly decline of about 10,000 jobs.
HRI also does not see signs of a rebound in consumption. Despite real wages gradually rising, inflation is eroding disposable income. According to a December survey by Ipsos, only 38% of Germans believe the country is on the right track