AI exacerbates supply-demand tension, uranium prices hit a record high
Recently, the price of uranium for nuclear reactor fuel has soared to a historic high, mainly due to the tight supply of enriched uranium caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with the increasing demand from AI data centers—nuclear energy, as a renewable clean energy source, has attracted the attention of tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon, who are eager for nuclear power to provide energy for their power-hungry generative AI data centers
The supply of enriched uranium is in short supply, and AI data centers are adding fuel to the fire.
Recently, the price of uranium for nuclear reactor fuel has soared to a historic high, primarily due to the tight supply of enriched uranium caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with increased demand from AI data centers. According to statistics from data provider UxC, the price of enriched uranium has reached $190 per separative work unit, a significant increase from $56 per separative work unit three years ago.
Analysts indicate that nuclear energy, as a renewable clean energy source, has attracted the attention of governments and enterprises worldwide, especially tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon, who are eager for nuclear energy to power their energy-intensive generative AI data centers.
On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, with Russia being a major player in the extraction of uranium and its conversion into the enriched uranium needed for nuclear reactors. The U.S. sanctions and export bans imposed on Russia have driven the price of enriched uranium to new highs. Nick Lawson, CEO of investment group Ocean Wall, stated:
“Western countries lack sufficient uranium conversion and enrichment capacity, which is why prices have surged so dramatically, and prices will continue to rise.”
According to Bloomberg, 27% of the enriched uranium imported by the U.S. in 2023 came from Russia. Analysts point out that while U.S. utility companies may have enough uranium fuel this year, their supply will significantly decline in four years:
“U.S. utility companies must start negotiating contracts this year to secure uranium supplies, especially considering that the U.S. will restrict Russian uranium imports by the end of 2027.”
However, the U.S. import exemption will expire at the end of 2027, and the relevant industry needs to seek new sources of enriched uranium or facilities capable of converting uranium, so the issue of enriched uranium shortages may worsen further. Lawson emphasized:
“There are many very important political decisions that need to be made regarding nuclear energy and uranium supply chain investments... Building new facilities takes years and requires huge amounts of capital.”
Another unfortunate piece of news is that Kazakhstan's state-owned mining company Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer, recently warned that uranium production may fall short of expectations. Andre Liebenberg, CEO of London-listed uranium investment company Yellow Cake, stated:
“We are increasingly seeing Kazakhstani uranium materials flowing to Russia, with the amount going to the West decreasing, which poses a problem for Western utility companies... Due to the lack of new projects that can be brought online quickly, we are likely to face a supply crisis in the medium term.”