Federal Reserve Survey: U.S. one-year and three-year inflation expectations rise in December
According to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, inflation expectations for the one-year and three-year periods in the United States rose to 3% and 3%, respectively, while the five-year inflation expectation decreased to 2.7%. The survey showed that confidence in finding a job after unemployment fell to its lowest point since April 2021, and the median household income expectation also dropped to 2.8%. Consumers expect prices for gasoline, food, healthcare, college education, and rent to rise in the coming year. Following the release of the survey, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly
On Monday, according to the latest survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, inflation expectations for one year and three years in the United States rose in December, while five-year inflation expectations declined.
In December, the one-year inflation expectation in the U.S. slightly increased to 3%, up from 2.97% in November; the three-year inflation expectation rose to 3%, significantly higher than the November figure of 2.6%; the five-year inflation expectation decreased from 2.9% to 2.7%.
The decline in five-year inflation expectations was primarily driven by respondents under 40 years old, with this expectation being most pronounced among those with a high school education or lower.
If unemployed, the average perceived probability of finding a job sharply dropped from 54.1% in November to 50.2%, the lowest reading since April 2021.
The median expected growth in household income decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8%, the lowest reading since May 2021.
Consumers expect gasoline prices to rise by 2% over the next year; food prices to increase by 4.05%; medical costs to rise by 5.76%; college education costs to increase by 5.67%; and rent prices to rise by 5.54%.
A larger proportion of consumers expect to be unable to pay the minimum debt in the next three months, with this proportion at 14.16% in December, up from 13.15% in November.
After the release of the latest survey data from the Federal Reserve, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond maintained an increase of nearly 3 basis points, at 4.72880%; the yield on the two-year Treasury bond maintained an increase of nearly 1.5 basis points, at 4.3940%, reaching 4.4214% at 17:03 Beijing time.
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