Are U.S. water stocks no longer attractive? Multiple stocks have had their target prices lowered by Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo recently lowered the target prices for several U.S. water stocks, reflecting changes in market dynamics and the macro environment. The target price for California Water Service Group was reduced from $56 to $52, the target price for American Water was lowered from $133 to $129, and the target price for American States Water was decreased from $84 to $77. The overall water industry is facing challenges, with a median return rate of -12% for 2024, leading to decreased investor interest in the sector
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Wells Fargo recently released a rating adjustment report for U.S. water stocks for 2025. Based on recent market dynamics, updates on company information, and changes in the macro environment, Wells Fargo has lowered the target prices for several individual stocks.
Specifically, Wells Fargo upgraded the rating of California Water Service Group (CWT.US) from "Hold" to "Overweight," lowering the target price from $56 to $52;
American Water (AWK.US) rating was upgraded from "Underweight" to "Hold," with the target price lowered from $133 to $129;
American States Water (AWR.US) rating was downgraded from "Hold" to "Underweight," with the target price lowered from $84 to $77;
Essential Utilities (WTRG.US) rating was downgraded from "Overweight" to "Hold," with the target price lowered from $43 to $39;
The rating for SJW Group (SJW.US) was maintained at "Hold," with the target price lowered from $61 to $53.
Looking back at 2024, the U.S. water industry faces numerous challenges. The median return rate for overall water companies is -12%, significantly lower than the median return rate of about 16% for regulated electric and gas companies. The rise in interest rates at the beginning of 2024 and recent concerns about persistently high interest rates have created headwinds for the high P/E ratio water sub-industry. Additionally, the lack of artificial intelligence/data center business layout has led to low investor interest in this sector.
Water stocks are expected to decline in 2024, and the significant increase in the P/E ratio of electric stocks (benefiting from the long-term strong trend in electricity demand/data centers) has caused the premium of water stocks relative to electric stocks to drop from 50-55% at the beginning of 2024 to 15-20%, the lowest level since the end of 2017. The high growth rate of water companies (6-8%) is often cited as one of the reasons for the premium. Now, this advantage has been offset. Most electric companies have similar growth prospects over the next decade