Reviewing the ups and downs experienced by the U.S. stock market over the past decade [Fu Peng Says 12]

"Looking at the world from the trading desk, Fu Peng discusses finance"

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Looking at the world from the trading desk, Fu Peng discusses finance.

In this episode, Fu Peng continues from the previous episode to review the U.S. stock market over the past 10 years, reflecting on the trends and volatility of the U.S. stock market in the past decade.

As early as 2012, I began to have record communications with friends from Chinese institutions, experiencing many important milestones during this period, which have become our shared memories. At the same time, I have been continuously sharing related content on social media, so many of these memorable milestones can be traced back in history.

Starting from 2015 and 2016, there have been significant changes in the U.S. and global geopolitical landscape, and these changes in the U.S. did not happen overnight. With the overall transformation from top to bottom, and the effective clearing of the U.S. household sector after the 2008 financial crisis, its potential gradually emerged in the market.

The outbreak of the pandemic in 2020 became a major resonant catalyst. Before this, the market was relatively mild and slow. In 2015 and 2016, the low interest rates in the U.S. and the debt and leverage after the clearing of the household sector had already begun to drive early market clearing. Of course, on the technological front, I have previously discussed the analysis methods of the U.S. stock market under industrial cycles and technological iterations in the "U.S. Stock Market Master Class," and I will later review this with NVIDIA as an example.

We see that in 2015 and 2016, the market experienced the rise of Trump and the impact from China, after which the market remained stable until 2018. During this period, purely from an interest rate perspective, the U.S. began to slightly raise interest rates from the end of Yellen's term. At this stage, the economy, interest rates, clearing, and early technology had already begun to take shape.

However, from the chart below, we can see that the market experienced high volatility from 2018 to 2019, with the U.S. stock market showing a diffusion pattern, stabilizing only before the pandemic. Some may think this was a shock brought about by the pandemic and can be ignored. But in reality, during the nearly two years from 2018 to 2019, the U.S. stock market remained stagnant, and it was only after 2019 that the market began to gradually push for development.

At that time, we discussed this issue. I believe that the US stock market may seem to reach new highs and then drop significantly. You might think it is about to crash, but it slowly reaches new highs again. But will it end there? No, it starts to decline again, showing a diffusion state, and market volatility increases accordingly.

At that time, Powell first raised interest rates and then began to cut them, which corresponded to the period of interest rate cuts in the US—when the resilience of the US economy had not yet fully manifested. Whether driven by technology or the political rightward shift after Trump's rise, including tariffs and trade wars, none had produced direct results yet, so the economic resilience was not strong. Therefore, the sustainability of interest rate hikes would be relatively poor.

However, the foundation of the US economy had actually been laid, including early technological development, positive political changes, and the clearing of relevant operational sectors in the US from the 2008 financial crisis to 2014-2015—the foundation is there, but the resilience has not yet manifested.

After the pandemic, although many people believe from a micro perspective that the US economy is driven by fiscal policy, sometimes it is both a result and a cause. If the foundation is not solid, no amount of supplements or stimulants will help; but if the foundation has been repaired, potential may be unleashed when encountering special events.

After the outbreak of the pandemic, the explosive low-interest-rate state continued from 2020 to 2021, lasting about a year and a half. During this period, technology transitioned from early development to a phase of fission. In fact, I believe that by 2020 and 2021, the signs of technological fission had begun to emerge, as evidenced by NVIDIA. The low-interest-rate environment facilitated technological fission, and under the influence of fiscal compensation and interest rates, the resilience of the household sector and policies was once again stimulated. It was from that time that the true long-term bull trend of the US stock market began to unfold—this is the significance of the post-pandemic period.

By the end of 2021, volatility increased, and the US stock market declined. During this period, I gained many fans interested in cryptocurrency, and many friends in the crypto circle began to pay attention to me. At the end of 2021, when we discussed Cathie Wood and Bitcoin, I mentioned that Cathie Wood was using a primary investment strategy in the secondary market. As for what Bitcoin really is, we still have not fully understood its essence, but from my observation, it has a certain correlation with interest rates.

If we say that after the pandemic, the US gradually entered a normalization phase, then the rise in interest rates at the fission node will inevitably trigger a wave of valuation killing phenomena—this state may promote a certain transformation, that is, technology switching from an early valuation state to a value state, which we can explore further later.

At that time, NVIDIA, Bitcoin, and Cathie Wood all experienced a wave of sharp declines, with Bitcoin dropping to over $20,000. However, after the interest rate hikes and the end of valuation killing, the market entered a value phase, volatility continued to decline, Cathie Wood's performance was sluggish, while NVIDIA and Bitcoin reached new highs and surged significantly, leading to an overall decrease in market volatility. This rise is fundamentally different from the previous rise, completing an important transformation.

Looking back over the past decade, from early problem-solving to addressing the three directions of the bottom-level household sector, internal and external politics, and technology dimensions, can be seen as a preparation phase of all factors. In the first phase, the resilience of the US economy was insufficient; With the outbreak of the pandemic, resilience began to manifest; after experiencing a valuation kill, it ultimately demonstrated resilience and value—this series of paths aligns with a complete logic and trajectory.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk