Behind the Haitong Hypothesis: The Allure of Energy Supplementation

Author | Chai Xuchen

Editor | Zhou Zhiyu

Recently, Haitong International Securities released a research report proposing "Five Major Speculations for 2025," one of which is that Xiaomi will acquire Nio, expanding the usage of Nio's battery swapping and even opening it to other car manufacturers under patent protection.

Although Haitong International stated that the above speculation is based on an understanding and analysis of technology, operations, and competition, and is merely a suggestion for directional thinking rather than a prediction based on sufficient evidence and information. With the backing of a brokerage firm, this speculation has intensified the "rumors" surrounding Nio and Xiaomi.

Subsequently, Wang Hua, General Manager of Xiaomi Group's Public Relations Department, publicly responded to Haitong International's prediction, stating that "the company does not comment on speculations from third-party companies." Meanwhile, Ma Lin, head of brand communication and marketing at Nio, also responded, claiming that the speculation is purely fictional.

This is not the first time Nio has been the subject of such rumors. Two months ago, a person certified as a BYD employee claimed that BYD and Nio Group were collaborating to establish a joint venture, listing the shareholding ratios of both parties. This rumor quickly ended with the intervention of public security and Nio's lawsuit.

As a star of the new forces, why does Nio repeatedly find itself entangled in "rumors"?

Nio has always been practicing its long-termism, but in a volatile market environment, it is viewed as a "freak" that burns cash. The heavily invested technology system and charging infrastructure are still waiting for the moment to catalyze explosive sales, which seems to give Nio's rumors a "selling point."

However, from another perspective, such speculations actually expose the strong demand among car manufacturers for charging infrastructure. From a technological synergy standpoint, Nio's biggest differentiated competitive advantage now is its battery swapping stations and charging stations. Taking Xiaomi's rumored car as an example, it began collaborating with Nio on charging networks at the end of last year, with over 14,000 Nio charging piles integrated into Xiaomi's charging map.

Currently, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 5%, user demand is undergoing irreversible changes, and the convenience of charging facilities is increasingly valued by consumers.

Although the demand is clear, the market shows a significant imbalance in supply and demand.

Data from the China Charging Alliance indicates that from January to November 2024, the increase in domestic charging infrastructure was 3.756 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23%; however, during the same period, the total sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 11.262 million units, with a growth rate of 35.6%, resulting in a charging pile to vehicle increase ratio of 1:2.7. Clearly, the growth in the number of charging piles lags behind the growth in the number of new energy vehicles.

Car manufacturers are increasingly aware that charging is not solely reliant on third-party public charging pile service providers; self-built infrastructure is equally important. On one hand, it helps maintain the brand's user base, and on the other hand, it stimulates sales growth. However, the reality is that most car manufacturers are exhausted from competing and, under cash flow pressure, are hesitant to make significant investments.

At this time, Nio, which holds over 3,000 battery swapping stations and more than 25,000 charging piles, and is preparing to continue building a "county-wide" charging network, has become a prime partner for car manufacturers looking to collaborate In early May last year, He Xiaopeng personally visited Li Bin and stated that he would consider joining the battery swap model when NIO's battery swap stations exceed 5,000. XPeng, which has a handshake supercharging plan, may still be waiting for a larger trend in battery swapping, but more and more automakers are making the choice to join NIO's battery swap alliance.

Currently, NIO's battery swap "circle of friends" has 8 automakers joining, including traditional brands such as FAW, Changan, GAC, Jiangqi, Geely, and Chery. Moreover, NIO has also engaged in deep cooperation with energy and power companies such as Sinopec, CNOOC, and Shell, recently announcing the full establishment of a nationwide 9 vertical and 9 horizontal high-speed battery swap network.

Following this, battery swap models cooperating with NIO are also on the verge of launch. On January 9, an image circulated online titled "Xingtu and NIO Strong Alliance - Innovative Vehicle-Battery Separation Model" showed that the battery swap model in collaboration with Chery's Xingtu is planned to be launched in the third quarter of 2025, indicating that large-scale application of battery swapping may be approaching a turning point. At this time, battery giant Ning Wang also added fuel to the fire, announcing its entry into the battery swap game.

In late December, CATL announced the promotion of battery swap standardization and will collaborate with multiple automakers to launch battery swap products, forming a new battery swap alliance. With financial strength and industry chain discourse power, CATL provided a clear timeline: to build 1,000 stations by 2025, and subsequently through social co-construction, the final scale of battery swap stations will reach 30,000.

This means that the battery swap sector is about to enter a high-speed growth cycle, and the imagination of NIO's energy business will also be amplified.

Li Bin has repeatedly described NIO's battery swapping as "cloud services in the energy era," a true infrastructure for the electric vehicle era. Once it scales and becomes an industry trend, it will be a big business and has the potential to become a new profit growth point for NIO.

NIO CFO Qu Yu revealed that if a battery swap station achieves 60-70 swaps per day, it can break even, while the fourth-generation battery swap station of NIO can even reach 480 swaps per day. Currently, NIO has deployed over 180 battery swap stations in Shanghai, with the majority of regions exceeding 100 swaps per day.

As NIO's battery swap stations expand, the sales potential of the NIO, Ledo, and Firefly brands will also be further unleashed.

Under the battery swap BaaS service, Ledo can penetrate the fortress market of joint venture brands with a price of less than 150,000 yuan, accelerating the capture of incremental sales, with an ambition of 20,000 units per month; subsequently, the Firefly brand will also join, with internal expectations of contributing several thousand units in monthly sales.

It can be said that NIO's energy business will soon form a commercial closed loop driven by market demand. With the catalysis of time and reform, the turning point of Li Bin's long-termism has already emerged, and NIO is also gearing up for a key leap in transformation