Sell in May? No, Hong Kong stocks may rebound in May this year!

Can the above similarity continue from May to December this year?

Historical experience does not represent the future. Although some investors may recall sayings such as "Sell in May" and "June is poor, July is dead, and August is the turning point," China's stock market did not follow this pattern last year. Therefore, it is necessary to explore under what fundamental conditions the Hong Kong stock market from May to December this year may have similarities with last year, so as to provide a certain degree of reference for timing.

For the Hong Kong stock market from May to June this year, we remain cautiously optimistic and believe that there may be opportunities for a rebound.

Firstly, from the perspective of domestic economy and policies, the actual growth rate of China's GDP in the second quarter is likely to be higher than the same period last year due to the low base, and the high year-on-year growth of economic data represented by consumption is conducive to a rebound in the stock market rather than suppressing it. After experiencing a policy vacuum period, the important meeting at the end of April is also conducive to helping economic recovery.

Secondly, from the perspective of overseas economy and policies, the risk of a US economic recession has increased but will not come immediately. Moreover, the Hong Kong stock market pays more attention to the operation of China's economy, and the expectation of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy switch is relatively clear. The expectation of a US economic recession may lead to the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in advance. Even if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates immediately after ending the rate hike last year, its impact on the stock market liquidity will be very different from that of the large rate hike last year.

Thirdly, from the perspective of stock market risk appetite, although geopolitical tensions have intensified, global geopolitical issues cannot be completely resolved in 1-2 months. If the Hong Kong stock market adjusts significantly in April and the overall economic fundamentals are upward, investors may still be optimistic about the short-term market.

For the Hong Kong stock market in the third quarter of this year, we must first consider the specific changes in the Hong Kong stock market in the second quarter of this year.

Under the background of weak economic recovery, if the Hong Kong stock market rebounds in the later period of the second quarter of this year, the Hong Kong stock market in the third quarter of this year may fall under the situation of the further deterioration of overseas economic recession expectations or geopolitical risks. However, if the Hong Kong stock market does not rebound due to other black swan events in the second quarter of this year, we can be more optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market in the third quarter of this year.

If geopolitical risks or the risk of a US economic recession continue to significantly increase in the third quarter of this year, then entering the market at the bottom of the third quarter may be an important victory for Hong Kong stock investment throughout the year. According to previous reviews, the fourth quarter is the best performing season for the Hong Kong stock market in some statistical indicators.

However, the premise of entering at the bottom is to escape the local top. Therefore, in addition to considering not being confused by possible downward continuation when entering at the bottom of the third quarter this year, we also pay attention to the top of the next rebound in the Hong Kong stock market (if there is a rebound in the second quarter of this year).