At the beginning of the month, Tesla suddenly raised its prices. Could it be that they will lower them again this summer?!

Since the sudden price increase in early May, Tesla's stock price has also risen by nearly 15%.

However, JPMorgan is not optimistic about Tesla's future performance and said that Tesla may lower its prices again this summer!

Why?

In JPMorgan's view, Tesla's price increase is not sustainable, but another price reduction may be a time point to observe whether the market has bottomed out.

The reasons why Tesla may lower its prices in the summer are as follows:

1. Part of this Tesla price increase is due to the strong wait-and-see sentiment of domestic customers (everyone is afraid of buying at a loss if the price keeps dropping). Currently, after the price increase, the waiting time for new energy vehicles has recovered slightly from 2-4 weeks to 2-5 weeks, and the wait-and-see sentiment has begun to ease, which has eased Tesla's concerns.

2. Tesla's global single-car profit margin was dragged down by price cuts in the first quarter, but looking ahead, the scale economy of back-end integration has opened up some space for profits and paved the way for new products in the future.

3. As Tesla's European factory gradually increases production, the export task of the Shanghai factory has been reduced.

4. Tesla's performance meeting also emphasized the need to achieve volume and ultimately achieve a vision of tens of millions, so from a medium- to long-term strategic perspective, it is probably necessary to take sales through price reductions.

JPMorgan said that if Tesla lowers its prices again, the overall industry competition pattern and price environment may return to the previous state. However, few investors currently expect that the competition pattern of new energy vehicles has improved, and they are relatively "consistently pessimistic".

Therefore, perhaps we can look at the market reaction after Tesla lowers its prices again this time, which is also an observation point to see if the market sentiment has really bottomed out. It is expected that the time point for Tesla to lower its prices may be in the summer before the interim report.

JPMorgan also said that it is difficult to be optimistic about Tesla as a company as a whole, mainly because:

1. Although Tesla is still a disruptor and pricing anchor in the new energy vehicle market, for the company itself, a 10% price reduction may require a 20% increase in volume to balance the profit end. If the volume does not meet expectations, the pressure on profit margins will continue to exist.

2. In the medium to long term, if Tesla really insists on the goal of selling tens of millions, it will inevitably move more towards the road of traditional car manufacturers, and the required product combination sequence will be more complex, and single-product profits may be more difficult to achieve.

3. For the incremental increase in autonomous driving and software, first, the progress is still slower than that of overseas technology giants, and the valuation is even higher; second, there are naturally more laws and regulations for overseas autonomous driving; third, the willingness to pay for software in China may not be strong, and further observation is needed.

In summary, the larger Tesla becomes, the more challenges it faces in terms of profits, and it needs to be continuously observed. Short-term pressure is definitely high.