Survey: Investors are optimistic, will the US stock market rise in the short term?
Currently, short-term optimism in the US stock market is higher than what we have seen since December 2021, just before the bear market began in 2022.
According to a survey by Vanguard, investors in June expressed their expectation that the return rate of the US stock market in the next 12 months will reach 5.5%, which is the most optimistic forecast since the bear market before 2022.
This is higher than the expected annual growth rate of 3.7% in April and the highest level since the forecast of 6% in December 2021.
About a month later, the S&P 500 index reached a historic high in January 2022, and since then the index has fallen at least 20% from its peak, meeting the widely recognized criteria for a bear market.
"Investors are loudly and clearly expressing their expectation that the current stock market rebound will continue," said Tom De Luca, Senior Researcher at Vanguard's Investor Behavior Group. "Currently, short-term optimism is higher than what we have seen since December 2021, just before the start of the bear market in 2022."
The survey is based on a random sample of approximately 2,000 Vanguard individual and 401(k) plan investors.
As optimism heats up, the US stock market continues to hit new highs for the year, and the highly anticipated US economic recession has not materialized, with most large banks reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings.
It is worth noting that Vanguard's June survey also showed that the 10-year stock market return rate is 7.1%, unchanged from April.