"China's Buffett" Duan Yongping: Pretending to be an investor is very dangerous! Still need to pay attention to ChatGPT and Apple

Source: Alpha Factory Research Institute, with modifications

For Apple and other long-term holdings, Duan Yongping often shares his views on social media. We have compiled Duan Yongping's publicly expressed opinions this year and organized the most valuable ones to share with everyone.

The most important point for Apple to launch a product is "What can I do for users?"

(Regarding Apple's first MR product) Many people want to try it out, but I don't think one million units will be enough. The key lies in the reaction after using it. If everyone really likes it, it could be a product with millions of units sold.

Apple's entry into a product is often not because Apple is timing the market, but because Apple is not ready or satisfied with its product before that. The most important point for Apple to launch a product is "What can I do for users?" Many years ago, there was a rumor online that Apple would release an Apple TV. I said, what can Apple do with such a big TV? As a result, Apple didn't release it.

I still find it difficult to see the logic behind Apple launching an Apple car. What significant improvement in user experience can Apple car bring? In the foreseeable future, such as within 5-10 years, we are unlikely to see the Apple car depicted in those fake videos. However, Apple's CarPlay is indeed very useful!

(Regarding whether Cook's retirement will affect Apple) It shouldn't have a short-term impact. The key is whether Cook has chosen the right person. It's okay to make a wrong choice, but it depends on whether it can be corrected. Cook has made the wrong choice before. The lady who used to sell luxury goods managed Apple's retail stores, but she was replaced in less than two years. The cost was significant, but the cost of not replacing her would have been even greater.

It is difficult to determine the ultimate winner in the new energy vehicle industry

So far, I still can't see who will be the ultimate winner in the new energy vehicle and lithium battery industry. Some differentiation can still be achieved in the automotive industry, so car companies may have a slightly better chance of survival. It should be difficult to achieve differentiation in batteries, so the final outcome will likely be determined by price and scale competition. Maybe in three to five years, or maybe in eight to ten years, we will see the results.

For products with little differentiation, it is difficult to survive without relying on price wars. Some companies that exited the market early may have had a better time, but not necessarily.

I think it will probably take about 20 years to fully achieve autonomous driving, but assisted driving can already be done quite well.

Someday I will go all-in on the S&P 500

If you confirm that you have been thinking about something but can't quite understand it, the best way might be to buy S&P500 and then do whatever you want. For many people, spending too much time on "investing" is not worth it, and it has nothing to do with your education.

One day, I will go all-in on S&P500, but I haven't bought it yet because I think I can outperform the S&P500 by a little bit. I will start considering how to transition to S&P500 after Tim Cook retires. Because I believe that for a long time, Apple's performance will be better than the S&P500, even after Cook's retirement.

Holding S&P500 is actually an investment in the long-term development of the U.S. economy. I believe that the future development of S&P500 will still be good, unless I can find someone I am confident in to invest on my behalf, otherwise I will just buy S&P500.

Copying homework and buying Western Oil

I didn't read anything, I just saw that Lao Ba bought a few dozen percentage points (Western Oil). I know he is serious, so I bought about 1 million shares. I won't add more or spend time on it, anyway, I can't understand it even if I spend time. So many people have been confused about Apple for so long, why should I be able to understand this quickly? However, I understand Lao Ba, so I'll follow along for fun. It's difficult for me to make big money on this company, so I'll be satisfied if I can make a dozen percentage points within a year.

Actually, it's a bit like Lao Ba buying Activision Blizzard. Lao Ba just believes that Microsoft will buy it, so he bought some. Don't think that Lao Ba understands Blizzard, and don't ask me what's going on with Western Oil. This behavior is simply called arbitrage, of course, there is also a small probability of being trapped, but very small.

(Regarding Buffett buying Western Oil) I feel the taste of Warren buying railroad companies.

ChatGPT is worth paying attention to

(Regarding the impact of ChatGPT on Google) I think Google will react quickly. Google is strong in search and AI. The past days have been too comfortable, and a bit of short-term impact may be a good thing. This actually indirectly shows that Google's business model is not as powerful as Apple's.

Microsoft hopes to revive Bing search through ChatGPT. ChatGPT will bring considerable traffic to Bing in the short term, but in the long run, it still depends on the product. Unless people stop using search in the future, Google will still be formidable. However, ChatGPT may indeed reduce some demand for search or change people's search habits slightly. It feels like Apple will gradually take away some market share in search in the future. Nevertheless, search is still a very important demand, and advertising invested in search is unlikely to change significantly due to the emergence of ChatGPT.

I used to think that search was just a tool used occasionally, but later I realized that some people use it at least once every minute while working. These people are the reason Google exists! Anyway, ChatGPT is definitely worth paying attention to, although it doesn't seem to work well as a search engine at the moment. I hope they can create the most powerful Google.

People's desire to disrupt search with ChatGPT is somewhat similar to the desire for fully autonomous driving, which I also hope they can achieve. However, it seems very likely that everyone will have their own AI assistant, which will greatly increase efficiency. Google's dominance will indeed be impacted, and its market share will decrease to some extent.

Talking about Pinduoduo, Disney, Netease, etc.

(Pinduoduo and Disney) are both challenging businesses. Even businesses with poor business models are still businesses. Sometimes, during a period with a good leader, even a difficult business can still be done well, but it is relatively difficult for investment.

I don't quite understand the business model of Japanese trading companies. It seems to be a product of Japanese culture, and I haven't seen successful examples elsewhere. I wonder if it's somewhat similar to the abundance of xx trading companies everywhere 20-30 years ago? Mr. Buffett may have discovered the opportunity by looking at the financial statements.

I have always liked Disney's products, but I have never understood Disney's business model. Why does Disney seem powerful but always struggle to make money? It seems that this business model is not as wonderful as it appears and is quite exhausting. However, I will still keep my investment in Disney, as it belongs to less than 1% of my investments.

Pinduoduo's earnings report seems quite profitable, indicating that expanding into the international market is not a significant burden.

I did buy some things on Temu, and they are indeed cheap and usable, but they didn't help me understand its business model. I can't figure out what the situation will be like in 10 years or later, so I won't change my views on Pinduoduo because of Temu.

My view on Amazon has always been: it's difficult to make money in retail, and cloud services will be affected by other major companies. Microsoft, Google, Apple, and other companies' cloud services will capture a certain market share in the future. In short, I don't have much understanding of e-commerce, and so far, I have no intention of seriously investing in it.

I don't understand real estate. The most important thing in real estate is location, which is very difficult to scale.

When I invested in NetEase, I was still a novice. The stock price increased 20 times in less than six months when I was fully invested, and I was indeed a bit dizzy at that time. I basically don't worry about Apple, and I have never had trouble sleeping because of Apple.

Regarding getting closer to the supply chain, during the time when Changhong TV was very popular in the early years, I once told a friend that Changhong is so far away from the supply chain that their costs will be much higher than their competitors', and in the long run, they will definitely not succeed.

Operating a business jet is somewhat similar to an airline, but there are greater differentiations because customers are less price-sensitive. However, it is not a very good business model, at least much worse than Apple.

When I bought GE, it seemed that I didn't prioritize the business model. At that time, I thought GE had a great corporate culture, and I really appreciated the phrase "The world is changing, everything is changing, but integrity remains unchanged." Later, I found that integrity was no longer mentioned on GE's official website, which I found very strange. Combined with the increased emphasis on the business model later on, one day I suddenly decided to sell all of it. Assuming the premise of this product's establishment, it is intuitively difficult for energy storage products to differentiate themselves. Technological differences will be quickly leveled, and price wars will always accompany this product or industry.

Pretending to invest is very dangerous

If you don't fully understand, you shouldn't gamble your fortune. Investments that one dares not risk can hardly be considered legitimate investments.

The wise only care about what they can comprehend. Only those who don't understand everything would ask around: What do you think?

Pretending to swim is very dangerous, and pretending to invest is the same. However, many people don't quite understand where the danger of pretending to invest lies until they understand the risks.

The so-called "business intuition" should not be considered a talent; it should be the result of rational thinking.

In the end, every company will become the company it was meant to be, just like stock prices. There are no long-term inexplicable stock prices, but there may be short-term ones.

"Being true to oneself" is a requirement for oneself, not a magic mirror for others.

Think about the person you will ultimately become, and perhaps it will have a slight influence on each of your choices.