如果国内竞争格局没有大的变化，海外业务只是正常的商业逻辑，我觉得拼多多今年合理的估值应该在 3000 亿美金左右。
如果 Costco 现在可以 50pe，然后也许未来 5-7 年不涨，那为什么几年后拼多多不可能 30-40pe，市值 6000-8000 亿 usd 呢，出现泡沫然后几年不涨呢？
在德州， 我觉得 Costco 其实可有可无。在华州，如果没有那些同等品质下最便宜的生鲜和油价，我一定不会每周必去 Costco。会员卡并不能锁定消费者，消费者长期看大部分是理性的，锁定他们的是性价比。
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