投资者对 2024 年美国大选结果的三个主要押注是:

1.购买预测市场的合约来押注特定候选人获胜。最近特朗普的合约价格大幅上涨,反映其当选概率提高。

2.投资与特朗普相关的公司股票,如 TruthSocial 母公司 DJT 和加密货币交易所 Coinbase,押注特朗普获胜后这些公司将受益。

3.通过配置防御型行业如公用事业股和金融股以及对冲工具如黄金,来规避大选可能带来的市场波动风险。同时做空人民币、墨西哥比索等货币,押注特朗普上台后贸易保护主义抬头。

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