Fed-related news tracking
2026
Jan04
According to CME's 'FedWatch' tool, there is an 83.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, with a 16.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut in January.
Jan02
The Federal Reserve's discount window loans for the week ending December 31 were $9.66 billion, down from $9.87 billion the previous week.
The Federal Reserve has released detailed information about its balance sheet, which includes assets like U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and liabilities such as currency in circulation and bank reserves.
On January 2, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage dropped to $5.667 billion from $105.993 billion the previous trading day, involving 7 counterparties.
Jan01
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 85.1%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 51.2%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 42.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.9%.
On the last trading day of 2025, the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) provided $74.6 billion in loans to financial institutions, far exceeding the previous high of $50.35 billion. This is largely attributed to banks managing year-end balance sheets and regulatory settlements.
2025
Dec31
Moody's economist Mark Zandi predicts the Fed will cut rates three times in the first half of 2026 due to labor market weakness, inflation uncertainty, and political pressure, exceeding market expectations of two cuts.
Investors are anticipating a 0.25 percentage point decrease in interest rates on September 17. Despite a stable Core CPI and a significant increase in jobless claims, the likelihood of a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve is low.
Dec30
The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal that while most participants supported the rate cut, a minority opposed it, citing concerns over inflation and employment risks.
The discussion on macroeconomic issues covers interest rate policy, views on inflation and employment, and the impact of the historically longest U.S. government shutdown.
As year-end liquidity pressures increase, banks' demand for the Federal Reserve's overnight liquidity tool has surged. According to the New York Fed, the total amount of overnight loans provided through term repo operations reached $25.95 billion, the third highest usage since the tool was introduced in 2021. The overnight borrowing rate was 3.75%, near the top of the Fed's policy rate target range.
The Federal Reserve injected $16 billion in liquidity into the U.S. banking system through overnight repos, marking the second-largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dec29
The Federal Reserve's discount window loan balance rose to $9.87 billion for the week ending December 24, up from $8.87 billion the previous week.
A key Federal Reserve overnight liquidity facility saw increased use, with the U.S. central bank lending $25.95 billion to financial firms via standing repo operations on December 29. This marks the third-highest usage since the tool's inception in 2021. The funds are lent overnight at 3.75%, amid elevated volatility in money markets at quarter-end. The standing repo tool serves as a liquidity shock absorber, crucial for monetary policy and market stability. Additionally, financial firms parked $10.55 billion in cash via the reverse repo facility, down from $20.34 billion on Friday.
The Federal Reserve accepted $10.551 billion from 12 counterparties in a fixed-rate reverse repo operation.
On Monday, December 29, the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) usage was $10.551 billion.
The Federal Reserve plans to restart balance sheet expansion in December 2025 by initiating Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), buying approximately $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly to prevent a liquidity crisis.
Dec28
According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January is 18.8%, with an 81.2% chance of rates remaining unchanged. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 46.9%, with a 44.7% chance of no change, and an 8.5% chance of a 50 basis point cut.
Dec27
According to CME's 'Fed Watch', the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January is 17.7%, with an 82.3% chance of maintaining current rates. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut rises to 45.6%, while maintaining rates is at 46.7%, and a 50 basis point cut is at 7.7%.
Dec24
According to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.0%.
