Are the US stocks ready for "turbulence" in the next few days?

After a tense weekend, the conflict between Israel and Palestine fortunately did not escalate into World War III. The market plunge seems to have signaled a reversal.

However, is now really a good time to buy and go long? The S&P Volatility Term Structure, which measures the market's expectations for future volatility, shows that the market will face an extremely turbulent week with the release of key financial events such as US retail sales data and Powell's speech.

Powell's Speech and US Treasury Auction

This Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the Economic Club of New York. Investors are currently looking for any possible signals to determine the level and duration of interest rates.

If Powell agrees with Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson's view that the surge in bond yields has done some work for the Fed and there is no need for further rate hikes, it will help lower bond yields and boost the stock market.

In addition, a new round of US Treasury auctions will take place this Wednesday. The high US Treasury yields and weak demand also raise concerns that the volatility in the bond market will continue.

Just last Thursday, $20 billion of 30-year US Treasury bonds were auctioned in New York at the highest interest rate since 2007. The interest in 30-year Treasury bonds reached its lowest point since December 2021, with primary dealers purchasing nearly 18.2% of the bonds (primary dealers are required to purchase bonds that other bidders did not buy), causing a 1.2% drop in the S&P in the short term.

Deutsche Bank previously stated that the lag in demand for US bonds is one of the factors contributing to the rise in bond yields. Another worrying issue is the US budget deficit, with the federal government's interest costs continuously increasing. Last week, the Congressional Budget Office reported that the federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2023 is $1.7 trillion, an increase of over 20% compared to the budget deficit of approximately $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2022.

Heavyweight Data and Earnings Reports

This week, major banks such as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs will release their third-quarter earnings reports one after another. The market is currently most concerned about Goldman Sachs' performance in the third quarter (to be announced on October 17th).After the setback in exploring the retail business, the IPO market has remained sluggish recently, which is not optimistic for Goldman Sachs. In addition to well-known investment banks on Wall Street, many regional banks will also release their earnings reports next week, and it is not ruled out that there may be "victims of high interest rates" again.

Tesla will also announce its third-quarter earnings report. The recently released delivery data shows that Tesla delivered 435,059 vehicles in the third quarter, which is lower than analysts' expectations of 456,722 vehicles, and it has also declined compared to the second quarter. This is the first time that Tesla's delivery volume has declined on a MoM basis since the second quarter of 2022.

Many analysts have started to lower their optimistic expectations for Tesla's earnings report. According to data from FactSet, Wall Street generally believes that Tesla's third-quarter earnings per share will be $0.74, with revenue of $24.32 billion. In the second quarter, Tesla achieved revenue of $24.927 billion and earnings per share of $0.78.

Netflix will also release its earnings report on Wednesday. In the era of streaming media, the pressure to increase profits is even greater. Analyst Peter Supino from Wolfe Research said that the popularity of Netflix's low-cost subscriptions with ads among viewers is slow, but analysts from Bernstein compare Netflix to a mature and durable "utility".

In terms of housing data, the National Association of Home Builders will release the October Housing Market Index on Tuesday, and new residential construction statistics and housing starts data are expected to be released on Wednesday. The National Association of Realtors will release the existing home sales data for September on Thursday.

In addition, the Conference Board will release the Leading Economic Index for September on Thursday. Analysts expect the index to decline by 0.4% MoM, the same as the decline in August. The index has been declining for 17 consecutive months, which may be a sign of an economic recession next year.