The S&P 500 index has risen nearly 10% in just three weeks, but the market is in a panic?
The S&P 500 index has risen by 9.6% in just three weeks, but for some market observers, this upward trend seems increasingly difficult to sustain.
Zhitong App has learned that the S&P 500 index has risen by 9.6% in just three weeks, but for some market observers, this upward trend seems increasingly difficult to sustain.
Concerns about the index include several factors. First, the stock market tends to rise when there are signs of weakness in the US economy, as this indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to continue raising interest rates. However, ultimately, weak economic data will only become weaker. In addition, some technical indicators are starting to show signs of overextension.
According to surveyed strategists, the average forecast in mid-October was that the S&P 500 index would reach 4,370 points by the end of the year, but as of last Friday's close, the index had already reached 4,514.02 points.
Former Morgan Stanley strategist Rick Bensignor suggested that if the index rises to around 4,560 points this week and completes the Setup +9 (a technical indicator used to identify potential trend reversals), investment positions should be reduced. Matt Maley of Miller Tabak, in a report on Saturday, stated that although the market is currently pleased with weaker economic data, eventually there will be enough fundamental changes to negatively impact the stock market.
Maley said, "Ultimately, the stock market will realize that a decline in inflation does not mean the return of the 'free money' era." In addition, according to the relative strength index, the S&P 500 index is already overbought, "so it may/should soon experience some kind of short-term pullback."
Previously, Michael Hartnett of Bank of America advised investors to sell during the "epic risk rally," citing technical and macroeconomic factors, and recommended reducing investments in troubled technology sectors.
For investors who believe in the "Santa Claus rally," derivatives strategist Amy Wu Silverman of RBC Capital Markets wrote in a report on Saturday that they may want to consider buying put option spreads on companies such as Expedia (EXPE.US), Carnival Cruise Line (CCL.US), NVIDIA (NVDA.US), and Intel (INTC.US) through the end of the year.
In addition, some strategists see some optimistic factors. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs Group stated that investors are overly concerned about the prospects of corporate earnings. Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley has been mostly bearish this year, but the bank predicts that US assets will perform well globally next year and that US corporate earnings will bottom out in the first quarter.
However, the recent surge in the stock market has made many investors cautious.
Maley said, "At least in the near future, it seems possible that a decline could occur." He also stated, "If a decline does happen, the key support level will be at 4,400 points. Breaking below this level would cause the S&P 500 index to fall below the trend line since the summer high, which would trigger greater concerns about further declines."