Fund Manager: The rebound in US stocks may be temporary. Multiple factors next year will put pressure on the market.

Zhitong App noticed that large fund managers believe that the recent rally in the US stock and bond markets is more like an end-of-year rebound rather than a turning point. They believe that fiscal and monetary policies, next year's presidential election, and concerns about a recession may begin to put pressure on the market.

Since the end of October, the S&P 500 index has risen by about 10%, and the Nasdaq index has risen by 13%. This is because investors have increased their bets that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle has ended, as signs of cooling inflation and job growth appeared, and the third-quarter earnings season exceeded expectations.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds reached a 16-year high of 5.021% at the end of October, but has now fallen to 4.414%. The lower yield has driven the rise of technology stocks.

However, some large investors and advisors believe that the reasons for celebration are temporary, and concerns about the increasingly growing economy will begin to affect asset prices early next year.

Ryan Israel, Chief Investment Officer of Pershing Square Capital Management, under Bill Ackman, told clients last week, "We are starting to see some signs that things may be weaker than people might think." He added that the current main focus is on the direction of the economy.

Mohamed El-Erian, an advisor at financial services company Allianz SE, said that based on recent data showing declining consumer inflation and weakening US labor market, the market may have "over-interpreted" the rate cut in early 2024.

Although inflation is no longer the focus of attention after the US consumer price index remained unchanged in October, investors are concerned about the impact of the Federal Reserve's cumulative 525 basis points of interest rate hikes since March 2022, as well as the Fed's efforts to reduce its balance sheet under so-called quantitative tightening.

Overall, due to the impact of rising interest rates, rising energy prices, and the slowdown in economic growth in the world's two largest economies, global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2024. However, most economists believe that the world will avoid an economic recession.

"I don't think the market will escape the very aggressive tightening cycle of the Federal Reserve, followed by a sustained environment of quantitative tightening, without being damaged at some point next year," said Peter van Dooijeweert, Head of Defense and Tactical Alpha at Man Group Solutions. The department creates investment portfolios for clients. He is now more focused on earnings, credit markets, and broader economic data to look for signs of potential slowdown.

Next year's US presidential election is also a cause for concern as it may become a source of further market instability. Max Gokhman, Director of Investment Strategy at Franklin Templeton MosaiQ, said, "As we enter 2024, the election will be fiercely contested, and I think we will see more risks."Tech giants' sustainability remains uncertain

One of the biggest sources of uncertainty for investors is the performance of the "Magnificent Seven Sisters" group, composed of mega-cap companies, which have driven the stock market's rise this year.

Bill Gross, co-founder of bond giant Pimco, said that the decline in yields has largely benefited tech stocks, which have also benefited from investors' enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. However, he believes that there is little room for the current 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.45% to go lower. He said, "Don't expect yields to be a driving factor in the future."

Investors say that for tech stocks to regain market performance, it will depend more on how artificial intelligence boosts their earnings. Last month, Microsoft's quarterly earnings exceeded Wall Street's sales expectations, with its cloud computing and personal computer businesses growing steadily as customers expect to use its AI products.

van Dooijeweert said, "The market may be too optimistic about how much the AI boom contributes to the earnings of these seven giants."

A survey on Tuesday showed that strategists expect the S&P 500 index to close next year only about 3% higher than its current level, as they are concerned about an economic slowdown or recession.

Gokhman of Franklin Templeton said, "I think it's important to maintain a loose belief as we head into the New Year's Eve."