After a one-day closure for Thanksgiving, the US stock market closed early on "Black Friday". The three major indices showed mixed performance, but maintained a weekly gain for the past month. Some individual stocks were affected by reports, with Nvidia, which was reported to delay the launch of its new chip in China, falling to a two-week low and leading the decline in blue-chip technology stocks. Despite its third-quarter performance surpassing expectations, the company's stock price failed to receive a boost from its earnings report, as its fourth-quarter revenue guidance fell below Wall Street's high-end expectations and warned of a significant decline in sales to China for the current quarter.
After a one-day closure for Thanksgiving, the US stock market closed early on "Black Friday". The three major indices showed mixed performance, but maintained a weekly cumulative increase for the past month.
Some individual stocks fluctuated due to news reports. Nvidia, which was reported to delay the launch of its new chip in China, fell to a two-week low, leading the decline in blue-chip technology stocks. Despite its third-quarter performance surpassing expectations, the stock price failed to be boosted by the earnings report, as its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was lower than Wall Street's high-end expectations and it issued a warning of a significant decline in sales in China. On the other hand, Baidu continued to rise after announcing positive earnings, outperforming the market with double-digit gains throughout the week.
"Black Friday" kicked off the holiday shopping season, with Adobe predicting $9.6 billion in sales in the US on Friday. Retail giant Walmart rebounded, while e-commerce giant Amazon barely held onto its gains and fell from its historical high. At the beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday sales season, Amazon's warehouse workers and drivers went on strike in multiple countries including the US, UK, Germany, Italy, and Spain, demanding higher wages.
US Treasury bonds also closed early on Friday. European bonds fell on Thursday due to concerns about increased borrowing by the German government, and US Treasury prices followed suit after the closure on Thursday, with yields rising further after a V-shaped rebound on Wednesday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury not only moved further away from the two-month low set on Wednesday, but also rose to a one-week high during the trading session, erasing the cumulative decline earlier this week. Both European and US bond prices fell this week, with UK bond yields leading the rebound, mainly due to the unexpected expansion of the UK's PMI in November, which led to a daily increase of at least 10 basis points.
In the foreign exchange market, the continued recovery of European PMI pushed the euro and the pound higher, while the US dollar index further declined, approaching the low since the end of August set on Tuesday. The US dollar continued to decline this week, but the decline was smaller compared to the sharp decline last week. Some commentators pointed out that weak economic data released this week prompted investors to bet that the Federal Reserve would adopt a more dovish stance. The renminbi fluctuated during the trading session, briefly falling below 7.16 offshore. Although it did not continue to approach the high since the end of July, it recorded a consecutive weekly increase for the second week.
In the commodity market, supported by the weakening US dollar, gold rebounded and the New York gold futures briefly surpassed the psychological level of $2,000 twice this week, reaching a new high since the end of October and maintaining a weekly increase, with only a slight decline since the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict. After OPEC+ announced that it would postpone the meeting to discuss oil production policies to the following weekend without disclosing specific reasons, international crude oil prices fell for the third consecutive day, continuing the weekly decline for the past month. However, the overall decline in crude oil this week was milder than before. Commentators pointed out that recent news indicates that the postponement of the meeting is not due to a change in the stance of the major oil-producing country, Saudi Arabia, in reducing production. It seems that Saudi Arabia is still willing to bear the majority of the production cuts among OPEC+ members.
Three major US stock indices rise for four consecutive weeks, S&P and Nasdaq achieve the longest continuous rise in five months, Nvidia falls after earnings report, Chinese concept index rises for two consecutive days
The three major US stock indices showed mixed performance in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which opened higher, maintained its upward trend and rose nearly 130 points, or nearly 0.4%, when it hit a daily high. The S&P 500, which opened lower, fluctuated between slight gains and losses after the opening. The Nasdaq Composite, which opened lower, continued to decline and fell nearly 0.4% when it hit a daily low. In the end, the three major indices failed to continue their collective gains. The Nasdaq fell 0.11% to 14,250.85 points, no longer approaching the closing high since July 31st. The Dow Jones rose 117.12 points, or 0.33%, to 35,390.15 points, reaching a new high since August 7th. The S&P 500 rose 0.06% to 4,559.34 points, setting a new high since August 1st for two consecutive trading days.
Small-cap stocks, mainly value stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, rose 0.67%, reaching a new high since September 20th for two consecutive days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell 0.12%, failing to approach the high since January last year set by the five consecutive gains on Monday. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index, fell 0.44%, failing to approach the closing historical high set by the rebound on Monday, but it has risen 0.5% this week, rising for four consecutive weeks.
The major US stock indices continued to accumulate gains this week, but the gains were not as high as last week. The S&P 500 rose 1%, the Dow Jones rose 1.27%, the Nasdaq rose 0.89%, and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.91%, all rising for four consecutive weeks. The S&P 500 rose for four consecutive weeks for the first time since June 16th. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 have achieved the longest consecutive weekly gains since June 16th for two consecutive weeks. The Russell 2000 rose 0.54% for two consecutive weeks.
In the S&P 500's major sectors, only two sectors related to technology stocks fell on Friday. The communication services sector, which includes Meta and Google, fell nearly 0.7%, and the IT sector, which includes Nvidia and Microsoft, fell more than 0.3%. Among the nine sectors that rose, the healthcare sector had the largest increase, but it only rose by more than 0.5%. The non-essential consumer goods sector, which includes Tesla, rose by more than 0.1%, ranking at the bottom in terms of gains.
All sectors continued to rise across the board this week. Healthcare led the gains, rising by more than 2%, followed by communication services, essential consumer goods, and real estate, all rising by more than 1%. The financial sector rose by about 1%, and the energy sector, which had the smallest increase, rose by nearly 0.3%, affected by the decline in crude oil.
Most of the leading tech stocks fell, while Tesla rose by 0.5%. It only fell by nearly 3% on Wednesday, but it has accumulated a rise of nearly 0.5% this week, far less than the 9.2% increase last week. Among the six major FAANMG tech stocks, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, fell 1.3% after rising for three consecutive days to a high since October 24th. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, fell nearly 1%, falling from the high since December 2021 set by the rebound on Wednesday. Apple fell 0.7%, failing to continue approaching the high point set on Monday; Microsoft, which rebounded on Wednesday, fell 0.1% and failed to surpass the closing high set on Monday; Amazon rose slightly, continuing to set new historical highs from the rebound on Wednesday; Netflix rose 0.3%, rising for four consecutive days and setting new highs since January last year for two consecutive days.
These tech stocks have all risen this week. Netflix has risen nearly 3%, Microsoft has risen over 2% in a week of internal strife at OpenAI and attempts to recruit its CEO, Amazon has risen over 1%, Alphabet has risen about 1%, Meta has risen nearly 1%, and Apple has risen nearly 0.2%.
Overall, chip stocks are expected to rise for two consecutive trading days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX rose less than 0.1%, still unable to reach the high point set on August 1 since Monday, and fell slightly this week. At the close, Arm rose 3.4%, Intel rose nearly 0.7%, Materials rose nearly 0.6%, Qualcomm rose 0.2%, while AMD fell nearly 0.2%, Nvidia fell 1.9%, further distancing itself from the historical high set on the day before the earnings report was released on Monday, and continued to fall after the earnings report, reaching a new closing low since November 9, down nearly 3.1% this week.
AI concept stocks failed to continue their collective rebound. At the close, BigBear.ai (BBAI) rose over 5%, C3.ai (AI) rose 0.3%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell nearly 0.5%, while Palantir (PLTR) fell 2.5% and Adobe (ADBE) fell less than 0.1%.
Overall, popular Chinese concept stocks continue to rise, outperforming the broader market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 1.6%, rising for two consecutive trading days and up nearly 3.4% this week. Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ rose over 1% and 0.1% respectively in early trading. Among individual stocks, by the close, TAL Education rose over 15%, XPeng Motors rose over 6%, Baidu rose 2.7%, outperforming the broader market since the earnings report was released on Tuesday, up nearly 14.2% this week. JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Li Auto rose over 1%, Bilibili rose nearly 1%, Tencent Music rose 0.8%, while NetEase fell over 1%, NIO fell nearly 1%, and Alibaba fell 0.6%.
Retail stocks showed mixed performance. By the close, Walmart rose 0.9%, Target rose 0.7%, Best Buy rose nearly 2.2%, Nordstrom rose 5.9%, On Holding rose 3.3%, while Kohl's fell less than 0.1%; e-commerce companies eBay and Shopify fell nearly 0.4% and 0.9% respectively.
Banking stocks rebounded slightly for two consecutive trading days. The overall banking industry index, the KBW Bank Index (BKX), rose 0.3%, still unable to approach the high point set on August 14 since last Friday, and fell 0.6% this week; the regional banking index, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), rose nearly 0.2%, and the regional banking stock ETF, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), rose over 0.1%. Continuing to rebound from the lows set on Monday, November 13, both indexes fell by nearly 1.7% and 1.8% this week.
Among the stocks with significant volatility, media reports indicated that the European Union's antitrust regulator will unconditionally approve Amazon's acquisition of iRobot, resulting in a nearly 39.1% increase in the stock price. After reaching a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice and CEO Zhao Changpeng's resignation and admission of guilt, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, saw a 5.8% increase in its stock price. Fisker, an electric vehicle manufacturer, saw a 5.2% increase in its stock price after announcing a delay in submitting its quarterly report and changes in its financial management personnel. Vista Outdoor, an outdoor sports and entertainment product company, saw a 3.9% increase in its stock price after Colt CZ Group proposed a strategic merger at a valuation of $30 per share.
In European stocks, the pan-European stock index continued to rise for three consecutive days following the release of the PMI data. The STOXX Europe 600 index reached a closing high for the first time since September 20, which was set on Monday. The major European stock indexes continued to rise. Among the sectors, the retail sector led the gains with a 0.9% increase, followed by the chemical sector with a gain of over 0.8%. BASF, the German chemical giant, rose by 1.8% due to media reports that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is considering acquiring its subsidiary, Wintershall Dea.
The STOXX Europe 600 index rose for two consecutive weeks this week, but the increase was not as high as last week's 2.82%. The stock indexes of various countries did not continue to rise together. The German and Spanish stock indexes rose for four consecutive weeks, while the French stock index rose for two consecutive weeks. However, the rebound in the British and Italian stock indexes last week was followed by a decline. The retail sector led the gains for the whole week with an increase of over 2%, followed by the media sector with a nearly 2% increase. The real estate sector, which is sensitive to interest rates, fell by nearly 0.3%. After a nearly 6% surge last week, both the basic resources sector and the real estate sector, which led the gains with an increase of over 6% last week, fell. The basic resources sector fell by over 0.2%.
The overall European bond prices continued to fall, and yields continued to rise. At the end of the bond market session, the yield on the 10-year benchmark UK government bond reached 4.28%, up 3 basis points for the day. The yield on the 10-year benchmark German government bond reached 2.64%, up 3 basis points for the day.
This week, as European Central Bank officials turned hawkish, the German government reportedly planned to exceed the debt issuance limit, and European PMI data showed signs of improvement, European bond yields rebounded together. The yield on UK government bonds rose by more than 10 basis points across the board, with a one-day increase of at least 10 basis points on Thursday. The yield on the 10-year UK government bond, which fell by approximately 23 basis points last week, increased by approximately 18 basis points. The yield on the 10-year German government bond, which fell by approximately 13 basis points last week, increased by approximately 6 basis points. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury benchmark bond fell below 4.44% before the European stock market opened, hitting a daily low. It then continued to rise, with the US stock market approaching 4.50% at the beginning of the trading session, reaching a high not seen since November 16. It rose nearly 9 basis points during the day and was around 4.47% at the end of the bond market session, up nearly 7 basis points during the day. After a significant drop of about 21 basis points last week, it rebounded this week, with an accumulated increase of about 3 basis points.
The 2-year US Treasury bond yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, rose to nearly 4.96% during the US stock market session, hitting a high not seen since the day when the US CPI was announced to be slower than expected, causing a sharp drop in US bond yields. It rose nearly 6 basis points during the day and was around 4.95% at the end of the bond market session, up about 5 basis points during the day. Both the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields have risen for two consecutive days, with an accumulated increase of about 6 basis points this week after a drop of about 17 basis points last week.
Yields on US Treasury bonds of various maturities rose this week, with short-term yields rising more than long-term yields.
The US dollar index, which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against six major currencies including the euro, continued to fall for the second consecutive day, falling below 103.40 during the US stock market session, approaching the low of August 31 that was broken on Tuesday. It fell more than 0.5% during the day.
By the usual closing of the US stock market, the US dollar index was slightly below 103.40, down about 0.5% during the day, and down about 0.5% this week after a drop of about 1.9% last week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rates of the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell nearly 0.3%, hitting a low not seen since August 30 during the same period. It has fallen about 0.5% this week, along with the US dollar index, both falling for two consecutive days and two consecutive weeks, but the decline is far less than the nearly 1.7% drop last week, which was the largest weekly drop since July 14.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen for the third consecutive week in the past four weeks, reaching a low point in three months.
Among non-US currencies, the euro and the pound continued to strengthen after the release of positive European PMI data. The euro against the US dollar approached 1.0950 during the early trading session of the US stock market, rising nearly 0.4% during the day, approaching the three-month high reached on Tuesday when it broke through 1.0960. The pound against the US dollar rose above 1.2610 during the US stock market session, reaching a high not seen since September 5, rising nearly 0.7% during the day. The US dollar against the yen almost fell for three consecutive days, falling below 149.20 before the European stock market opened, hitting a daily low. It has not yet reached the low of 147.20 that was broken on Tuesday, September 14. It rebounded afterwards, with both the European and US stock markets turning positive at one point. By the usual closing of the US stock market, it was below 149.50, slightly down during the day. Offshore Renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar rose to a high of 7.1426 in early Asian trading, but then fell multiple times. Both European and US stocks fell below 7.16 during European trading and early US trading. European stocks hit a low of 7.1609 in early trading, falling 183 points from the high of the day, and US stocks rebounded after the opening. At 5:59 am Beijing time on November 25th, the offshore Renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.1493 yuan, up 29 points from the New York closing on Thursday, rising for two consecutive days, and up 680 points for the week, rising for two consecutive weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $38,000 in early US trading and briefly tested the $38,400 level, reaching a high not seen since May last year, close to the $38,000 level in Asian trading, up nearly $1,200 and more than 3%. It fell to $38,000 at midday and was around $37,800 at the close of the US stock market. It has risen more than 1% in the past 24 hours and nearly 4% in the past seven days.
Crude oil continues to decline after OPEC+ postponed its meeting. US WTI crude oil futures for January, which had no closing price on Thursday due to the holiday, fell $1.56, or 2.02%, to $75.54 per barrel, falling for three consecutive trading days, approaching the closing low near $73.09 per barrel set on July 10th, which was refreshed last Thursday. Brent crude oil futures for January fell $0.84, or 1.03%, to $80.58 per barrel, falling for three consecutive days, refreshing the closing low since November 16th, last Thursday.
US oil fell 0.66% this week, while Brent oil fell nearly 0.04%, less than the at least 1% decline last week. As a result, oil has fallen for five consecutive weeks, and since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict seven weeks ago, oil has only risen in the first two weeks and has continued to fall since then.
US gasoline and natural gas futures both fell. NYMEX December gasoline futures fell 3% to $2.1651 per gallon, falling for two consecutive trading days, hitting a low since November 16th, and falling 0.89% for the week, falling for five consecutive weeks. NYMEX December natural gas futures, which rebounded on Wednesday, fell 1.45% to $2.855 per million British thermal units, approaching the low since October 2nd, falling 3.55% for the week, falling for three consecutive weeks.
London base metal futures mostly fell on Friday. Nickel, which led the decline, fell by about 2.9%, hitting a new low since April 2021 for the second time this week after Wednesday, and aluminum also fell back, failing to approach the high of the past two weeks set on Tuesday. London tin fell more than 2% for three consecutive days, hitting a new low in a month. London lead fell for three consecutive days, closing below $2,200 for the first time in over a week. Meanwhile, London copper rebounded for two consecutive days, approaching the high point since early September set on Tuesday, and London zinc continued to move away from its three-week low.
Most base metals have fallen this week. London nickel led the decline, falling more than 4.5% for five consecutive weeks, while London lead, which had risen for five consecutive weeks, fell more than 4%. London tin, which had risen for two consecutive weeks, fell nearly 4%, and London zinc fell slightly, marking two weeks of decline. On the other hand, London copper rose nearly 2% for two consecutive weeks, and London aluminum, which had fallen for two consecutive weeks, rose 0.4%.
On Thursday, New York gold futures, which had no closing quotes due to the holiday, continued their rebound during intraday trading. COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.52% at $2,003.00 per ounce, reaching a new closing high since October 30th, following Tuesday's closing above $2,000 for the second time this week.
Gold has risen by about 0.92% this week, marking two consecutive weeks of gains. Since the Israel-Palestine conflict, gold has only fallen in the previous week, with a gain of less than 2.4% compared to the previous week. Similar to last week, the rise in gold this week is not primarily due to the boost from the Israel-Palestine conflict, but mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar as the market expects the Federal Reserve to complete its interest rate hikes.
Spot gold also broke through the $2,000 mark on Friday.
