2023.11.30 23:11
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Tesla's new car failed to boost the Nasdaq, but in November, US stocks rebounded significantly, achieving the largest monthly gain in a year. US bonds had their best performance since 2008.

In November, the US stock market rebounded strongly, achieving the largest monthly increase in a year. The Nasdaq fell for two consecutive days, but Tesla's gains were in double digits. Chinese concept stocks halted their three-day decline, with PDD rising by 4% and Bilibili falling by over 4%. The US Treasury yield ended its three-day decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 10 basis points, marking the best monthly performance since 2008. The offshore renminbi rebounded by nearly 2000 points. Gold has risen for two consecutive months, while London copper saw its first increase in four months and London nickel fell for four consecutive months. Federal Reserve officials poured cold water on interest rate cuts. The rise in US Treasury yields is due to investors' excessive reaction to expectations of interest rate cuts.

On Thursday, the released inflation indicators favored by the Federal Reserve, the US Core PCE Price Index, showed a slowdown in both month-on-month and year-on-year growth in October, as expected by analysts. The number of continued jobless claims in the US in the previous week exceeded expectations and further increased, reaching a new high in over two years, but the market reaction was relatively calm.

Federal Reserve officials poured cold water on rate cut expectations. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that there is currently no consideration of the possibility of a rate cut. John Williams, one of the top three officials at the Federal Reserve, stated that he expects the restrictive policy to be maintained for a considerable period of time, and if price pressures persist longer than he expected, further tightening may be necessary. US Treasury yields rose during the day, hitting a daily high and breaking away from the two-month lows that had been repeatedly refreshed in recent days. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rose more than 10 basis points at one point, while the two-year US Treasury yield, which is sensitive to interest rates, did not approach the four-month low. Some commentators believe that the rise in yields is due to speculation that the bond market's expectations for rate cuts have been excessive and too fast.

Both the PCE inflation indicator and the number of continued jobless claims released are sending signals favorable to the Federal Reserve ending rate hikes and starting rate cuts in the first half of next year. Despite this, the upward momentum in the US stock market on Thursday continued to weaken, showing signs of weak buying pressure. The major US stock indices repeated the performance of Wednesday, with the Nasdaq turning negative during the day, and the S&P 500 alternating between gains and losses. The delivery of the first batch of Cybertruck by Tesla and the announcement of its price failed to boost the stock price, while cloud computing giant Salesforce, which reported higher-than-expected profits for the last quarter, saw a sharp rise in its stock price, supporting the Dow Jones Industrial Average to continue to hit nearly a four-month high.

Although the three major US stock indices did not rise across the board on the last trading day of November, their performance for the month was impressive, achieving the largest monthly gain in at least a year. In November, US Treasury prices rose sharply and yields fell significantly, achieving the best monthly performance since 2008. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index (Agg), which measures the overall performance of investment-grade bonds in the United States, even rose by nearly 5%, the largest monthly increase since May 1985.

The simultaneous surge in US Treasury bonds and stocks reflects the market's significantly increased expectations that the Federal Reserve has completed rate hikes and will cut rates next year. Global stock and bond markets also rose sharply in November, with a total market value increase of over $11 trillion for the month, the second largest monthly market value increase since November last year. In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index rebounded on Wednesday, benefiting from end-of-month buying and breaking free from the intraday lows seen in the first three days of the week, which were the lowest in three months. November still marks the worst monthly performance in a year. Non-US currencies generally fell on Thursday, with the euro retreating from a two-month high and offshore renminbi briefly falling below 7.15, down from the four-month high of 7.12 reached on Wednesday. The strong momentum of a nearly 2,000-point rebound in November remains unchanged, reversing three months of decline.

In the commodity market, it was reported that the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday reached a consensus to cut production by a total of 2 million barrels per day, including Saudi Arabia extending its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day and other countries adding a total of 1 million barrels per day in additional cuts. This is consistent with the news of increased production cuts reported on Wednesday. International crude oil prices initially rose by more than 2%, but later turned lower, falling by more than 3% at one point. Some analysts believe that traders are skeptical about whether OPEC will adhere to the production cut agreement. In addition to Saudi Arabia, other OPEC countries have historically struggled to comply with the planned production cuts. Furthermore, investors are concerned about global demand prospects after entering the seasonally weak period of winter. Some comments mentioned that crude oil prices fell after the OPEC+ meeting announcement did not mention production cuts, but instead each country announced its own decision.

In the US stock market, the three major indices continued to open higher for two consecutive days, with mixed performance in the morning session. After rising more than 0.2% in early trading, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index turned lower. At midday, the Nasdaq fell by more than 0.9% and the S&P 500 fell by nearly 0.3% to refresh the daily lows. The Nasdaq narrowed its losses in the final hour of trading, while the S&P 500, which had reversed gains multiple times during the day, locked in gains in the final hour. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which maintained gains throughout the day, rose more than 500 points and the S&P 500 reached a new daily high.

In the end, only the Nasdaq closed lower, down 0.23% at 14,226.22 points, falling for two consecutive days and hitting a low since November 21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 520.47 points, or 1.47%, to 35,950.89 points, rising for three consecutive days and reaching a new high since January last year. The S&P 500, which had fallen on Wednesday, rebounded and closed up 0.38% at 4,567.80 points, approaching the high reached last Friday after two consecutive days of gains since August 1.

The small-cap Russell 2000, which is dominated by value stocks, rose 0.29% to a high since September 20 for two consecutive days. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.25% to a low since November 17 for two consecutive days. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index, fell 0.8% to a low since November 15 for two consecutive days, but has accumulated a 13.01% gain in November.

All major US stock indices ended their three-month decline in November. The S&P 500 rose 8.92%, the Nasdaq rose 10.7%, both marking the largest monthly gains since July last year, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 8.77%, the best monthly performance since October last year. The Nasdaq 100 rose 10.67% and the Russell 2000 rose 8.83% in November. Major US stock index trends in November

Among the Dow Jones components, Salesforce (CRM), which announced higher-than-expected third-quarter EPS earnings and higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue guidance after the market closed on Wednesday, opened significantly higher on Thursday, with a gain of over 10% at one point. It closed up nearly 9.4%, leading the gains among other components.

Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, only three technology-related sectors saw declines on Thursday. The communication services sector, which includes Google and Meta, fell 1%, the non-essential consumer goods sector, which includes Tesla, fell nearly 0.2%, and the IT sector, which includes chip stocks, fell nearly 0.1%. Among the eight sectors that saw gains, healthcare and industrials both rose over 1%, while finance and materials rose by about 1%, and the utilities sector, which saw the smallest increase, rose 0.4%.

In November, only the energy sector saw a cumulative decline of over 1%, while several interest rate-sensitive sectors saw gains of over 10%. Among them, the IT sector rose nearly 13%, real estate rose over 12%, non-essential consumer goods rose nearly 11%, and finance rose nearly 11%. The essential consumer goods sector, which saw the smallest increase, rose nearly 4%.

Trends of S&P sector ETFs in November

Leading technology stocks initially saw collective declines, followed by some gains. After Tesla's global vice president, Tao Lin, mentioned that Tesla's production advantage is inseparable from the Chinese supply chain, Tesla opened slightly higher, then fell in early trading, and fell 3% at one point during the midday session. It closed down nearly 1.8%. On the day when Cybertruck deliveries began, it fell for the second consecutive day, continuing to move away from the high point reached on October 17 after three consecutive days of gains on Tuesday, when it rose 4.5%. It still accumulated gains this week, with a cumulative increase of 19.5% in November.

Among the six major FAANMG technology stocks, Alphabet, the parent company of Google, fell nearly 1.9%, marking a two-day decline to a low point since November 13. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, fell 1.5%, marking a two-day decline to a low point since November 9. Netflix fell nearly 0.7%, marking a four-day decline to a low point since November 17. Amazon fell nearly 0.2%, marking a two-day decline to a low point since November 21. Apple, which fell back to a low point since November 15 on Wednesday, rose 0.3%, while Microsoft remained almost flat, not continuing to fall from the closing high reached on Tuesday.

These technology stocks all saw gains in November, with Netflix, Microsoft, and Apple rising by over 15%, 12%, and 11% respectively. Amazon rose nearly 9.8%, Meta rose over 8%, and Alphabet rose nearly 6.8%.

After a rebound on Wednesday, chip stocks fell back. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the semiconductor industry ETF SOXX both fell nearly 0.8% and 0.7% respectively in early trading, falling from the high point reached on November 20, which was refreshed on Wednesday. In November, they saw cumulative gains of 15.8% and 16.1% respectively. At the close, Nvidia fell nearly 2.9%, but had accumulated a nearly 15% increase in November. AMD fell more than 2%, Arm fell more than 1%, Intel fell nearly 0.5%, while Qualcomm rose nearly 0.9%.

The AI concept stocks, which had been rising for several days, also fell back. At the close, C3.ai (AI) fell more than 3%, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) fell nearly 7%, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 6%, Adobe (ADBE) fell 1%, while Palantir (PLTR) rose more than 1%.

On Wednesday, most of the popular Chinese concept stocks that had fallen overall rebounded. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed up less than 0.1%, ending a three-day decline and moving away from the low since November 17, with a cumulative increase of 3.7% in November. The Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ rose more than 0.9% and 0.3% respectively. Among individual stocks, Pinduoduo continued to rise for the third consecutive day after announcing its earnings report, closing up 4%. It had surged 18% on the day of the earnings report announcement on Tuesday and is expected to rise more than 20% this week. Tencent's fan shares rose more than 2% at the close, NIO rose more than 1%, Baidu rose 0.5%, Alibaba and NetEase rose about 0.3%, while Bilibili, which had fallen more than 10% after the earnings report announcement on Wednesday, continued to decline, closing down nearly 4.5%, and XPeng and Li Auto fell more than 3%.

The banking sector index failed to continue its overall rise. The overall banking industry index, the KBW Bank Index (BKX), closed up nearly 1%, rising for three consecutive days and reaching a closing high since August 14. It had risen nearly 15% in November. The regional banking index, the KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX), which had risen for two consecutive days, fell in the late trading session, closing down nearly 0.3%, falling from the high since November 20. It had risen more than 12% in November. The regional banking stock ETF, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), closed up 0.2%, rising for three consecutive days and reaching a closing high since November 20 for two consecutive days. It had risen nearly 14% in November.

Among the stocks that announced their earnings reports, Snowflake, a cloud computing infrastructure provider, rose more than 7% with revenue guidance for the third quarter and full year exceeding expectations. Victoria's Secret, a women's clothing brand, rose 14.3% with expected accounts receivable for the third quarter and overall guidance for this quarter. Petco, a pet supplies company, which had plummeted 29% after announcing disappointing third-quarter results, rebounded and closed up 10.3%. Nutanix, a cloud computing company, rose 3.7% with revenue and profit for the first quarter exceeding expectations. However, Pure Storage, a data storage company, fell 12.2% with revenue guidance for this quarter and the full year below expectations. Despite fourth-quarter earnings exceeding expectations and strong full-year guidance, Synopsys fell 1.6%. In the volatile individual stocks, Spirit AeroSystems (SPR), an aerospace structural manufacturer, saw a 5.1% increase after being upgraded to overweight by Baird with an increased target price. Discover Financial (DFS), a digital bank, rose 4.7% after announcing the sale of its student loan portfolio and the decision to stop accepting new student loan applications in February next year. Social media companies Snap (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) both rose, with increases of 6.6% and 2.4% respectively, after Jefferies upgraded their ratings to buy, citing expectations of accelerated revenue growth next year.

In addition, General Motors (GM) surged over 9% after launching a $10 billion share repurchase plan and raising its dividend, as well as providing improved performance guidance for this year. Although the stock initially rose more than 2%, it later gave back most of the gains and closed with a slight increase. The company's CFO expects a 20% improvement in battery costs starting in 2024.

In European stocks, the Eurozone's harmonized CPI for November was released on Thursday, showing a slower-than-expected year-on-year growth of 2.4%, marking the third consecutive month of deceleration. This has fueled market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, leading to two consecutive days of gains in the pan-European Stoxx 600 index, which reached its highest closing level since September 15th. Most major European stock indices rose, with the German and Italian indices rising for three consecutive days, the Italian index reaching a 15-year high, the French index rising for two consecutive days, and the British index rebounding after three consecutive declines. The Spanish index, which had risen for two consecutive days, saw a slight decline.

In terms of sectors, the insurance sector rose 1.1%, with Dutch insurance company ASR surging 13% as a result of reaching a final settlement with interest-related groups regarding investment-linked products, with the settlement amount being much lower than expected. ASR led the gains in the Stoxx 600 constituents, while its Dutch counterpart NN Group rose 9.9%. The oil and gas sector rose over 1% due to expectations of increased production cuts by OPEC+.

The Stoxx 600 index rose over 6% in November, marking the largest monthly gain since January and a strong rebound after three consecutive months of decline. Stock indices in various countries have all seen cumulative gains, with rebounds in the German, French, Italian, Spanish, and British indices after three months of decline and a decline in October. As expectations of an end to interest rate hikes increase, the technology and real estate sectors, which are sensitive to interest rates, rose nearly 15% and over 14% respectively in November, becoming the main drivers of the European stock market. However, the oil and gas sector fell slightly by 0.2% due to continued decline in oil prices throughout the month.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rebounded 10 basis points from its two-month low during the day, achieving its best performance since 2008 in November.

European bond prices fell after three consecutive days of gains, with yields rising in line with US bonds. The Bank of England's survey report showed that UK business executives expect inflation to be above 3% in the next three years, highlighting the inflationary pressure faced by the Bank of England and leading to an increase in UK bond yields.

At the end of the bond market, the yield on the 10-year benchmark UK government bond closed at 4.17%, up 8 basis points during the day; the yield on the 10-year benchmark German government bond closed at 2.44%, up 2 basis points during the day.

In November, European bond yields fell across the board, reflecting the market's expectation of a quick interest rate cut by central banks due to the slowdown in European inflation data. The yield on the 10-year UK government bond fell by about 34 basis points, ending a three-month consecutive increase, while the yield on the 10-year German government bond fell by about 36 basis points, marking the largest monthly decline since July last year, and falling for two consecutive months.

The yield on the 10-year benchmark US government bond fell below 4.25% in early Asian trading, continuing to hit a new low since September 14th and setting a new two-month low for three consecutive days. European stocks rebounded before the market opened, and US stocks accelerated their recovery after the market opened. The US stock market reached a high of nearly 4.37% before the close, up about 11 basis points during the day. At the end of the bond market, it was about 4.33%, down about 7 basis points during the day, and a cumulative decrease of about 60 basis points in November, a sharp decline after six consecutive months of increase.

The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, fell below 4.62% before the US stock market opened, approaching the low of more than four months set on Wednesday when it fell below 4.61%. The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond rose during the day, reaching nearly 4.74% before the close, down about 3 basis points during the day, and a cumulative decrease of about 41 basis points in November, falling after two consecutive months of increase.

The yields of US bonds of various maturities fell sharply in November, with the yields of short-term bonds falling relatively less.

The US dollar index, which tracks the exchange rates of six major currencies including the euro, maintained a rising trend throughout Thursday, only briefly falling during Asian trading. The index hit a daily low of 102.719 before European stocks opened, rebounded above 103.00 before European stocks opened, and expanded its gains after the US stock market opened. It rose 0.8% during the day, breaking through the intraday low of 102.50 set on Wednesday, the lowest since August 11th.

By the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the US dollar index was above 103.50, up more than 0.7% during the day, with a cumulative decline of nearly 3% in November. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, rose by about 0.4%, continuing to move away from the low point since August 9th. It has fallen by more than 2.9% in November, and both the US dollar index and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index have risen for two consecutive days after falling for four consecutive days, but have fallen in November, marking the largest monthly decline since November last year. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index records the largest monthly decline in a year

Non-US currencies generally fell, and the yen, which had risen for four consecutive days, retreated. The USD/JPY maintained its upward trend after turning higher before the European stock market opened, rising nearly 0.9% during the day. It bid farewell to the intraday low of 146.70 to 146.67 on Wednesday, the lowest level in over two months since September 12. The EUR/USD initially fell below 1.0900, hitting a daily low during the early US stock market session, and fell nearly 0.7% during the day, moving away from the three-month high of around 1.1020 reached on August 10. The GBP/USD also hit a daily low during the early US stock market session, approaching 1.2600, and fell more than 0.7% during the day, moving away from the nearly three-month high of 1.2730 reached on August 31.

In the Asian market, the offshore renminbi (CNH) rose to a daily high of 7.1230 during the early session, then fell after the European stock market opened, and the US stock market turned higher before the market opened. The US stock market fell to a daily low of 7.1573, down 343 points from the high of the day, falling from the high of 7.1161 reached on July 27, which was the highest level since rising above 7.12 on Wednesday. At 5:59 am Beijing time on December 1st, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.1459 yuan, down 27 points from the end of New York on Wednesday. It fell after rebounding on Tuesday and fell for the second day this week, but rose by 1957 points in November, rebounding strongly after three consecutive months of decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $38,100 during the Asian session, then fell overall. The US stock market fell below $37,500 during the early session, down more than $600 from the high of the day, a drop of more than 1%. It failed to continue to approach the high since May last year, when it rose above $38,000 on November 24. It rebounded at noon, and the US stock market closed above $37,700. It has fallen slightly in the past 24 hours and rose nearly 9% in November.

Crude oil fell during the session, falling more than 3% at one point, marking the second consecutive month of decline

International crude oil futures fell during the session. After news that OPEC+ will extend the production cut in addition to Saudi Arabia and further reduce production by 1 million barrels per day, US WTI crude oil rose above $79 during the early US stock market session, rising more than 2.2% during the day. The front-month Brent crude oil contract rose above $84, up nearly 2.12% during the day. However, both fell during the early session, with US oil approaching $75, down 3.6% during the day, and Brent oil approaching the $80 mark, down nearly 3.5% during the day.

In the end, crude oil fell after two consecutive days of gains, marking the fifth day of decline in the past seven trading days. WTI January crude oil futures fell 2.44% to $75.96 per barrel, while Brent January crude oil futures fell $0.27, or 0.32%, to $82.83 per barrel. Both fell from the closing highs since November 21 and November 6, respectively. In November, the front-month contract for WTI crude oil fell nearly 6.3%, while Brent crude oil fell about 5.2%, both experiencing consecutive monthly declines after four months of consecutive gains.

Gasoline and natural gas futures in the United States also fell. NYMEX December gasoline futures, which had risen for three consecutive days, closed down 3.67% at $2.1998 per gallon, dropping from a one-month high. However, it still rose about 1% in November, rebounding after three months of declines. NYMEX January natural gas futures fell 0.07% to $2.802 per million British thermal units, hitting a low not seen since September 20th for two consecutive days, and falling for five consecutive days. It fell nearly 22% in November after three months of consecutive gains.

London nickel fell more than 8% in November, while London copper saw its first rise in four months. Gold temporarily bid farewell to its high position of over half a year and rose for two consecutive months.

Most London base metal futures fell on Thursday, with nickel leading the decline, falling nearly 2.8% and dropping from the two-week high set by two consecutive positive days, approaching the closing low since April 2021 set on Monday. Lead fell for eight consecutive days, hitting a new low for nearly a month. Tin, which had risen for two consecutive days, fell back and approached the low since late March set on Monday. Copper, which fell on Wednesday, rebounded and approached the high since early September set on Tuesday.

In November, base metals saw mixed gains and losses, with copper rising more than 4% and lead rising nearly 2%, ending three months and two months of consecutive declines, respectively. Zinc, which had fallen sharply in October, rebounded by nearly 2%, while nickel fell more than 8% for four consecutive months, and aluminum fell more than 2% for two consecutive months. Tin, which had rebounded in October, fell more than 3%.

New York gold futures, which had risen for four consecutive days, fell. COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.44% at $2038.1 per ounce, falling from the high set on May 7th. It rose about 2.7% in November, rising for two consecutive months, but the increase was not as high as the 6.87% increase in October, which was the largest in seven months.

Spot gold rose for two consecutive months in November, just like gold futures.