Wallstreetcn
2023.12.07 22:37
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Before the heavyweight employment report, US stocks regained their "AI faith" and rebounded, with Google and AMD soaring. The Bank of Japan made hawkish remarks, causing the yen to rise.

US stocks rebounded ahead of the heavyweight employment report, with the Nasdaq rising more than 1% to its largest three-week gain. Alphabet-C and AMD stocks soared. The hawkish tone of the Bank of Japan caused market turbulence and the yen surged. German stocks fell, Chinese concept stocks fell, Baidu rose more than 2%, while NIO-SW and XPENG-W fell more than 3%. Crude oil prices continued to decline, while gold and copper prices turned lower.

Before the release of the heavyweight non-farm payroll report this Friday, AI heat helped the US stock market rebound from its decline. Alphabet-C, led by the most powerful AI model Gemini, joined forces with AMD, a blue-chip technology stock that launched a new AI chip product, to support the rebound of the overall market. The Nasdaq had its best single-day performance in over three weeks, not only erasing all the losses this week, but also reaching a four-month high.

This month, the overall performance of AI-themed hot stocks surpassed individual stocks facing risks due to the AI boom for the first time.

The Bank of Japan's top two officials "hawkish" move has shaken the financial market. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that policy-making at the end of this year and the beginning of next year will be more challenging, mentioning that the central bank has various options if it decides to raise interest rates. Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya raised the hypothesis of what would happen if interest rates turned positive, which is seen as the clearest signal from the BOJ leadership so far.

Traders quickly increased their bets on the end of negative interest rates, with the possibility of the BOJ ending negative interest rates by the end of this month increasing from 2% to nearly 45% at one point during Thursday's trading session, as shown by swap contracts. Japanese government bond prices plummeted, with the 10-year JGB yield seeing its largest increase in a year, and European and American bond yields followed suit, reaching new highs for the day. Japanese stocks accelerated their decline, with the Nikkei 225 index falling nearly 1.8%, and the yen surged. The yen rose nearly 4% against the US dollar during the trading session, marking its strongest gain in a year and putting pressure on the US dollar index, which fell from its two-week high.

The US stock market announced before the market opened on Thursday that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits during the Thanksgiving period two weeks ago fell more than expected, marking the largest drop in four months, although the total number of claims remains near a two-year high. After the data was released, the decline in the US dollar index continued to expand, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond continued to rise, moving further away from the three-month low set by BOJ officials before their hawkish stance on Thursday, while the yield on the two-year US Treasury bond, which is sensitive to interest rates, quickly turned lower, approaching the five-month low set last Friday.

Some analysts have suggested closing out long positions in 10-year US Treasury bonds before the release of the employment report on Friday. Other analysts believe that both valuations and positions will prove that the recent rebound in US bonds has lost momentum, as it is expected that the US will experience a mild recession and high inflation will persist. However, a recent report from Bank of America suggests that the rise in US bond yields may have just begun. According to their calculations, in the last five interest rate hiking cycles, after the last rate hike in each cycle, US bond yields have plummeted by an average of 107 basis points.

In the commodity market, copper and other basic metal futures rebounded due to China's export growth in November and the decline of the US dollar. Gold futures failed to maintain their rebound and turned lower during the trading session, while spot gold continued to rebound slightly but has yet to approach the record high set on Monday. International crude oil failed to rebound again and has continued to decline within a week since the OPEC+ meeting, reaching a five-month low. US oil failed to recover $70. The oil price continued to fall for two consecutive days, as investors ignored the OPEC+ supply cuts and extended production cuts. The bearish sentiment has led to increased confidence in short selling, while concerns about the slowing economy have also affected oil demand.

The Nasdaq rebounded to a four-month high, with the Alphabet-C sector leading the gains in the S&P and AMD surging after the release of its AI chip.

The three major US stock indices opened higher for two consecutive days. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rebounded throughout the day, with the Nasdaq rising more than 1% in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned negative several times in early trading but maintained its upward momentum at midday. At its peak, the Nasdaq rose nearly 1.5%, the S&P rose more than 0.9%, and the Dow rose nearly 110 points or 0.3%. In the end, all three indices closed higher for the first time this week, with the S&P and Dow ending a three-day decline and closing higher on the first day of the week.

The S&P, which had fallen for three consecutive days to its lowest level since November 21, rose 0.8% to 4585.59 points. The Nasdaq rose 1.37%, marking its largest increase since November 14, to 14339.99 points. It not only rebounded from its closing low since November 17, but also reached its highest level since July 31. The Dow rose 62.95 points or 0.17% to 36117.38 points, but still experienced a cumulative decline this week.

The small-cap Russell 2000, which is dominated by value stocks, rose 0.87%, ending a two-day decline and not falling further from its closing high since September 1, as it did on Monday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 1.48%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, rose 2.27%. Both rebounded from their lows since November 13 and reached their highs since November 20 and November 29, respectively.

In the S&P 500, only three sectors declined on Thursday. Energy, which has been continuously affected by the decline in oil prices, fell 0.6%, leading the decline for three consecutive days. Utilities fell more than 0.2%, and healthcare fell less than 0.1%. Among the eight sectors that rose, the communication services sector, which includes Alphabet-C, rose more than 3%, far ahead of other sectors. The IT sector, which includes chip stocks like AMD, rose more than 1%, while non-essential consumer goods, which include Tesla, rose 0.9%. Other sectors rose less than 0.7%.

Leading tech stocks rose across the board, with most of them rising by at least 1%. Tesla rose nearly 1.4%, marking a three-day increase to its highest level since November 29. Among the six major FAANMG tech stocks, Alphabet, the parent company of Alphabet-C, surged more than 6% in early trading after the release of its strongest multimodal AI model Gemini, and closed up 5.3%, reaching its highest level since November 28. Facebook's parent company, Meta, rebounded nearly 2.9% from its low point since November 6th after six consecutive days of decline, reaching a one-week high. Amazon fell to its low point since November 21st on Wednesday, but still rose 1.6%. Netflix also rose nearly 1.2% after falling to its low point since November 14th. Apple rose 1%, reaching a high point since August 1st. Alphabet-C, a strong competitor in the AI field, rose nearly 0.6% after falling to its low point since November 13th on Wednesday.

After three consecutive days of decline, chip stocks rebounded. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX rose by approximately 2.8% and 2.7% respectively, reaching a high point since November 20th. Among individual stocks, AMD, which launched the competing product MI300X against Nvidia's AI chip, rose 9.9% on Thursday. At the close, Nvidia, Intel, Qualcomm rose more than 2%, and Seagate Technology rose more than 1%.

Driven by the surge in Alphabet's stock, the seven major US tech stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon, rebounded significantly on Thursday.

Driven by the surge in Alphabet-C's stock, the seven major US tech stocks rebounded significantly on Thursday.

AI concept stocks performed differently and failed to collectively follow the market rebound. C3.ai (AI) fell 10.8% after announcing lower-than-expected loss per share for the second quarter, but disappointing revenue and guidance for the third quarter raised concerns about the impact of AI investment on profitability. BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 2%, while Adobe (ADBE) rose more than 2%. SoundHound.ai (SOUN) rose nearly 1%, and Palantir (PLTR) rose 0.5%.

Chinese concept stocks had mixed performances. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell during midday trading, closing down 0.1% after a three-day decline. The Chinese concept ETFs KWEB and CQQQ rose nearly 0.8% and over 0.6% respectively. Among individual stocks, DouYu, which announced a significant turnaround in net profit for the third quarter compared to the same period last year, initially rose more than 15% and closed up more than 2%. Baidu, Bilibili, and NetEase rose more than 2%, while Alibaba and JD.com rose more than 1%. However, Pinduoduo fell more than 1%, and Tencent fell 0.3%. The three new forces in the automotive industry all fell, with XPeng Motors falling more than 3% and NIO falling more than 3%. On the first day of the earnings report, Li Auto fell more than 1%.

Among the stocks with significant volatility, Sprinklr (CXM), a customer experience software company, fell 33.5% after reporting better-than-expected performance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024. However, the management expects sales to accelerate decline in fiscal year 2025, and the stock was downgraded from buy to neutral by BTIA. Chewy, a pet e-commerce company, saw its stock drop nearly 13% in early trading due to lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue and fourth-quarter net sales guidance. However, the stock managed to narrow its losses and ended the day down 0.6%. Duckhorn Portfolio, a wine producer, also experienced a decline of 12% after announcing quarterly results that fell short of expectations. On the other hand, JetBlue, an airline company, saw a 15.2% increase in its stock price after raising its fourth-quarter revenue guidance and predicting lower-than-expected losses. Cerevel, a neuroscience biotechnology company, rose 11.4% following the announcement of its acquisition by AbbVie, which itself saw a more than 1% increase in its stock price. Despite lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue, ChargePoint, an electric vehicle charging network operator, still saw a 9.8% increase in its stock price.

In Europe, German industrial output in October fell more than expected, and the final Eurozone GDP for the third quarter was revised down to zero growth, below expectations. These data raised concerns about an economic downturn, leading to a halt in the two-day rally of the pan-European Stoxx 600 index, which had reached its highest closing level since July 31st. Major European stock indices declined on Thursday, with Germany's index, which had hit consecutive all-time highs for two days, experiencing a slight pullback. The Spanish index also ended its seven-day winning streak, while the French and Italian indices, which had risen for two consecutive days, also retreated. The UK stock market, which had ended a two-day decline on Wednesday, saw a slight decrease.

Within the Stoxx 600 index, the travel sector, which had risen more than 2% on Wednesday, initially fell more than 1% but later narrowed its losses to 0.2%. Several airline companies saw declines of at least 3% during trading, with Lufthansa falling more than 2% and International Airlines Group (IAG) falling more than 2%. However, Air France-KLM saw a more than 5% increase. The defensive utilities sector bucked the trend and rose nearly 0.4%.

Among other individual stocks, Games Workshop Group, a company related to miniature model games, saw a 13.7% decline in its stock price after unexpectedly slowing growth in its second-quarter performance, making it the biggest decliner among the Stoxx 600 constituents.

The yield on 10-year German government bonds hit an eight-month low, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached a daily high, breaking away from a three-month low following the hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan.

European government bond prices fluctuated, with yields reaching daily highs after comments from Bank of Japan officials. However, German bond yields turned lower during European trading hours, leading to further price increases, while UK bond yields managed to maintain their upward momentum. At the end of the bond market session, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond closed at 3.96%, up 2 basis points from the previous day's low, which was the lowest in six months. The yield on the 2-year UK bond closed at 4.48%, up 2 basis points. The yield on the 10-year German government bond closed at 2.19%, down 1 basis point, marking a fifth consecutive day of decline. During the Asian trading session, it briefly reached a high of 2.24%, but fell continuously after the opening of the European stock market, dropping below 2.17% and hitting a new low since April 6th. The yield on the 2-year German bond closed at 2.58%, down 1 basis point, and during European trading hours, it came close to 2.57%, continuing to hit new lows since May. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury benchmark bond fell to a low of 4.10% in early Asian trading, hitting a three-day low since early September. It quickly rebounded after a speech by a Bank of Japan official, rising above 4.18% and gaining nearly 8 basis points during the day. The gains in European stocks narrowed, briefly falling below 4.14%. After the release of US unemployment data, it briefly tested 4.18% before settling around 4.15% at the end of the bond market session, up about 5 basis points for the day, rebounding after two consecutive days of decline.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, continued to rise after the speech by the Bank of Japan official. It briefly rose above 4.63% before European stock market trading, up about 4 basis points during the day, and then fluctuated lower. After the release of US unemployment data before the stock market opened, it turned lower. It remained in a downward trend during US stock market trading, briefly falling below 4.57% to a daily low, down about 3 basis points during the day, approaching the mid-June low of 4.54% reached last Friday. It rebounded at the end of the bond market session to around 4.59%, roughly unchanged from the same period on Wednesday, taking a pause after Wednesday's rebound.

The performance of US bonds of various maturities continued to diverge, with short-term bond yields falling and long-term bond yields rising, but medium and long-term US bond yields fell throughout the week.

The yen rose 3.8% in intraday trading, the largest increase in a year, and the US dollar index stopped rising for three consecutive days, falling from a two-week high.

Driven by the sharp rise in the yen, the ICE US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies including the euro, fell after a brief rise in early Asian trading on Thursday and continued to decline. It briefly rose to 104.20 during the day (closing at 104.153 on Wednesday), approaching the high since November 17th when it rose above 104.20. After the reversal, the US dollar fell below 103.30 during the US stock market trading, down more than 0.8% during the day.

By the close of US stock market trading on Thursday, the US dollar index was below 103.70, down nearly 0.5% during the day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the US dollar against ten other currencies, fell nearly 0.4%, falling from the high reached on November 17th. It fell nearly 0.7% when it hit a daily low, marking the second consecutive day of decline in the past seven trading days. It stopped rising for two consecutive days after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech last Friday.

Among non-US currencies, the yen surged after Bank of Japan officials hinted at ending negative interest rates. The US dollar against the yen fell throughout Thursday, approaching 141.70 during US stock market trading, down 3.8% during the day, marking the largest decline since December 20th last year and hitting a low since August 7th. It closed slightly below 144.00 at the end of US stock market trading, down more than 2% during the day. The euro against the US dollar fell below 1.0760 before the European stock market, hitting a low not seen since November 14th for four consecutive days. It quickly rebounded and approached 1.0800 before the US stock market, rising more than 0.3% during the day. The British pound against the US dollar fell below 1.2550 before the European stock market, hitting a low not seen since November 24th for three consecutive days. It approached 1.2600 before the US stock market, rising nearly 0.3% during the day.

The US dollar against the Japanese yen plummeted on Thursday.

Offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar hit a daily low of 7.1747 in the Asian market, then quickly rebounded. It rose to 7.1527 before the European stock market, with an increase of 215 points during the day, bidding farewell to the low of 7.1768 reached on Wednesday, the lowest since November 20th. At 4:59 am Beijing time on December 8th, offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.1632 yuan, up 110 points from the New York closing on Wednesday, rebounding after three consecutive days of decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) was above $44,000 in the Asian market, approaching the high of over $44,000 for three consecutive days since April last year. After the opening of the European stock market, it quickly fell back. It fell below $43,000 to below $42,900 during the European stock market, a drop of more than $1,200 or nearly 3% from the daily high. It fell below $43,400 when the US stock market closed, down more than 1% in the past 24 hours.

OPEC+ Meeting Results in Six Consecutive Declines in Crude Oil, the Longest in Nine Months, and a Five-Month Low

International crude oil futures rebounded unsuccessfully. US WTI crude oil rose above $70 before the European stock market on Thursday, but then fell back and failed to regain this level. When the US stock market hit a new high, US oil approached $70.50, and Brent crude oil approached $75.50, both rising nearly 1.6% during the day. However, they continued to fall after the US stock market turned downward at noon. US oil fell below $68.80 at one point, the first time it fell below $69 during intraday trading since July 4th, with a drop of more than 0.8% during the day. Brent oil fell to $73.6 at one point, down more than 0.9% during the day.

In the end, crude oil fell for six consecutive trading days, marking the longest consecutive decline since February 22nd. It has been falling since the OPEC+ meeting last Thursday, but the decline has been less severe compared to Wednesday. WTI January crude oil futures, which fell 4.07% on Wednesday, fell 0.06% to $69.34 per barrel. After closing below $70 for the first time since the end of June on Wednesday, it hit a new low for the month's closing price for two consecutive days since June 27th. Brent February crude oil futures, which fell 3.75% on Wednesday, fell 0.33% to $74.05 per barrel. After hitting a new low since June 28th on Wednesday, it hit a new low for the month's closing price since June 27th. Crude oil prices in the US WTI market fell slightly, easing the downward trend after five consecutive days of decline.

US gasoline and natural gas futures saw mixed movements. NYMEX January gasoline futures fell 1.43% to $2.0012 per gallon, marking a three-day decline and hitting a two-year low for two consecutive days. NYMEX January natural gas futures, which experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, rose 0.62% to $2.5850 per million British thermal units, rebounding from nearly three-month lows. The US Energy Information Administration's report on last week's natural gas inventories, released on Thursday, showed a larger-than-expected decrease, boosting gas prices.

London base metals futures showed mixed movements on Thursday. London nickel led the gains, rising nearly 1.8% for two consecutive days, breaking away from the dangerous two-year low reached last week. London tin also rose for two consecutive days. London copper bid farewell to the two-week low created by two consecutive declines. However, London lead has been declining for more than ten days since November 20, hitting new six-month lows for two consecutive days. London aluminum has fallen for four consecutive days to its lowest level in five months, while London zinc has fallen for two consecutive days to its lowest level in over three months.

New York gold futures turned higher before European stock market trading, reaching a daily high of $2057.2 before rising nearly 0.5% during the day. However, the US stock market turned lower in early trading and maintained a downward trend, failing to approach the intraday record high of $2150 set on Monday.

In the end, COMEX February gold futures, which had halted a two-day decline on Wednesday, fell 0.07% to $2046.4 per ounce, failing to approach the intraday historical high of $2150 set on Monday.

Spot gold rebounded for two consecutive days, reaching a daily high of $2040 before the US stock market opened, rising 0.7% during the day, and then falling back. The US stock market briefly turned lower during trading hours and closed slightly below $2030, failing to approach the intraday historical high of $2150 set on Monday.

Spot gold continued to trade in a narrow range above $2020.