Tesla is expected to achieve record-high deliveries in 2023, but may face even greater challenges next year.

Zhitong App has learned that Tesla's electric vehicle deliveries in 2023 are expected to reach a new high, but it is still a distance away from the ambitious goal of 2 million set at the beginning of this year.

According to a survey conducted by LSEG among 14 analysts, Tesla is projected to deliver 1.82 million electric vehicles globally in 2023, a 37% increase from 2022. The fourth quarter is expected to account for approximately 473,000 deliveries. Tesla will announce its fourth-quarter delivery data in early January next year.

At the beginning of this year, Tesla anticipated that overall demand would remain strong and, with continuous capacity expansion and no external disruptions, it could achieve an annual delivery volume of 2 million vehicles. However, in October, Tesla issued a warning that rising borrowing costs were putting pressure on demand.

Faced with a slowdown in electric vehicle sales, Tesla, with its industry-leading profit margins, chose to lower prices to stimulate sales. In the U.S. market, some Detroit automotive giants such as General Motors and Ford seem to be slowing down their electrification efforts, making Tesla the undisputed leader in the U.S. electric vehicle market. In the Chinese market, however, Tesla faces fierce competition from local companies such as BYD, and its market share has declined.

Garrett Nelson, Senior Analyst at CFRA Research, said, "In terms of Tesla's deliveries, the fourth quarter is typically the strongest of the year. We expect the same to be true this year." Tesla is boosting year-end sales by increasing discounts on its main models. The company stated that its goal is to achieve a 50% average annual growth rate in the coming years.

Challenges in 2024

In 2024, Tesla will have to face the challenge of losing tax credits for some of its models in the United States and Germany. Although interest rates and battery raw material costs are expected to decline, this may force Tesla to further reduce prices next year to maintain market share, which could further weaken its profit margins.

Jairam Nathan, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets, has lowered his expectations for Tesla's deliveries next year from 2.14 million vehicles to 2.04 million vehicles, and he expects the average revenue per vehicle to decrease by 4% compared to 2023.

Tesla is also dealing with increased regulatory scrutiny of its autopilot system and other components in the United States and some European countries. Earlier this month, Tesla announced a recall of approximately 2.03 million vehicles. The recall was initiated after the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration conducted an investigation and announced the discovery of defects in Tesla's autopilot safety system. According to the recall notice, in certain situations, the function may not be sufficient to prevent driver misoperation, along with the accompanying control and alarm functions. This safety recall covers almost all Tesla models sold in the United States.

Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expect Tesla's deliveries to reach 2.2 million vehicles next year. Most people believe that the newly released electric pickup truck, Cybertruck, and the updated Model 3 are not enough to boost demand. Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner mentioned in a report about his meeting with Tesla's Investor Relations Director, Martin Viecha, and stated, "Tesla candidly acknowledges that the company is currently in a period of low to moderate growth."

Investors expect Tesla's profit margin to continue to be under pressure as the company increases Cybertruck production and prepares to launch more affordable models. However, Tesla has stated that Cybertruck will only account for a small portion of its production next year, and achieving mass production of this electric pickup truck poses "significant challenges."

Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, stated in a report that by 2024, Cybertruck will account for 3% of Tesla's sales. Analysts believe that Cybertruck is more of a "halo" product that may attract consumers to the brand.